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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 6 19, 11:22 am 
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This is interesting RE Trump's net approval rating.

Go to the map and slide the slider bar and watch how it has changed over time.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-tru ... JKZ8KsyoCI


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 6 19, 11:48 am 
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I would not dismiss this so easily when it is a long paper full of data written by Thomas Piketty. I'm also going to assume that Piketty takes the Electoral College into account in his analysis. The electoral college negated two of the popular vote wins.

One reason it's unproven that leftists can win in the US is because the Democratic party does everything they can to shut them out.

In a hypothetical, let's say Bernie somehow gets the nomination. All the Hillary Democrats will still come out and vote, because voting is like the one main way they participate in politics. They will have high turnout regardless of the candidate. And they may not be happy about Bernie, but they will mostly fall in line and still vote for him because they hate Trump more. If Bernie can then mobilize like a quarter of the people who never vote, he wins easily.

I don't know if he's the right guy that could pull this off, but I do believe that there is a huge amount of room to explore on the left, and experiment with what gets those people to vote, and someone will figure it out. Trump figured out how to get a small fraction of those people to vote, and it was enough for him to win. Millennials outnumber Boomers now. That's why it would be cooler if the leftist standard bearer was not so old. Someone is going to figure this out though and figure out how Dems can win on a consistent basis from the left. I just hope its not too late by the time they figure it out.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 6 19, 1:39 pm 
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I'm not done with this one yet. It's long but really good so far.

Bernie Sanders Wants to Change America. But He May Have to Change Himself First.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 6 19, 6:13 pm 
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pioneer98 wrote:
I would not dismiss this so easily when it is a long paper full of data written by Thomas Piketty. I'm also going to assume that Piketty takes the Electoral College into account in his analysis. The electoral college negated two of the popular vote wins.


Have you read it? I've read it. I'd not heard of it until the last handful of days when suddenly its on facebook and here and a San Antonio Spurs chatboard that I stalk and Twitter and all over the place so I read the 60-odd pages and I looked at all the graphs. Nowhere does he mention the electoral college, gerrymandering, voter suppression, or other acts that disenfranchise poor voters, and nowhere does the word "turnout" appear other than in a footnote. These are really important things that can't be discounted or skirted around. If we're gonna talk about the poor vote in America we must talk about how the rich stop them from voting and minimize their vote in some areas, while taking advantage of them in others like the south and plains and southwest and midwest.

pioneer98 wrote:
One reason it's unproven that leftists can win in the US is because the Democratic party does everything they can to shut them out.


Define "Democratic party". Is it the voters who vote in the party primary and participate in the caucii? If that's the definition, then I agree, the Democratic party shuts out the ultra-libs.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 7 19, 9:55 am 
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After perusing it, Piketty does not seem to be arguing that centrists can't win. My read is that he's analyzing political divides as they exist and saying it's difficult in the current landscape for worker interests to be represented because of all the other fault lines that have been created. He's not attempting to answer why people don't turn out , but rather why they vote who they vote for, and how that came to be. Though I do think there's a clear implication that Democrats could pick up more votes by moving left economically.

I think it's pretty commonly held that by abandoning workers interests, Democrats have allowed a certain bloc of voters to lean toward the GOP who has courted those voters in a number of ways. Bernie won a lot of those poor or working class states in the primaries - Wisconsin, Michigan in particular - so I think that tracks pretty well and I think it's true he could have won a few of those states as the nominee. It's possible he'd have lost some other states in the bargain, but nobody knows the answer to that.

I wouldn't use the last 20-30 years as evidence that leftists can't win as POTUS, as there hasn't been a viable left candidate in most of that time. Nobody really tried. Kucinich is a goofball - he was pro-life for a long time and has defended Trump repeatedly. Even the most leftish options have still been relatively centrist - Bill Bradley, Jerry Brown, and Howard Dean come to mind. Kind of staggering to think that Jerry Brown was considered too liberal in his race. He argued for a flat tax. There's no clear choice offered in most of those 80s and 90s Democratic primaries. It's all marginal differences, and not one of them had any sort of unified set of positions. Sanders was the first genuine lefty in decades and unexpectedly did very well. I think the prediction around here was that he might win two states.

I think the game has just changed too much now, and corporate-friendly centrism is going to have a hard time making a good enough case against Trump. A centrist like Biden is going to have to dump a lot of those old positions and it seems like he's trying to do that, but I don't think it's going to work. Nobody knows [expletive] though, so...


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 7 19, 10:57 am 
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https://www.gq.com/story/dnc-jay-inslee-climate-change
Quote:
At a time when the Democratic Party should be coalescing around general strategy, it has made yet another unforced error. Earlier this week, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) informed Washington governor and long-shot 2020 presidential candidate Jay Inslee that it would not, despite his requests, host a climate change debate during the upcoming primary season. Even worse, according to Inslee, DNC representatives also told him that if he elected to participate in any unauthorized climate change forum convened by any other entity, the DNC would bar him from its officially-sanctioned debates as a consequence.


Tom Perez should be shot into the [expletive] sun. I hate the Democrats.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 7 19, 11:07 am 
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yea not cool


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 7 19, 12:12 pm 
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thrill wrote:
https://www.gq.com/story/dnc-jay-inslee-climate-change
Quote:
At a time when the Democratic Party should be coalescing around general strategy, it has made yet another unforced error. Earlier this week, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) informed Washington governor and long-shot 2020 presidential candidate Jay Inslee that it would not, despite his requests, host a climate change debate during the upcoming primary season. Even worse, according to Inslee, DNC representatives also told him that if he elected to participate in any unauthorized climate change forum convened by any other entity, the DNC would bar him from its officially-sanctioned debates as a consequence.


Tom Perez should be shot into the [expletive] sun. I hate the Democrats.



democrats should be angry at Dems.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 7 19, 12:15 pm 
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thrill wrote:
https://www.gq.com/story/dnc-jay-inslee-climate-change
Quote:
At a time when the Democratic Party should be coalescing around general strategy, it has made yet another unforced error. Earlier this week, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) informed Washington governor and long-shot 2020 presidential candidate Jay Inslee that it would not, despite his requests, host a climate change debate during the upcoming primary season. Even worse, according to Inslee, DNC representatives also told him that if he elected to participate in any unauthorized climate change forum convened by any other entity, the DNC would bar him from its officially-sanctioned debates as a consequence.


Tom Perez should be shot into the [expletive] sun. I hate the Democrats.



This is exactly what I'm referring to when I say Democrats try to shut out leftists. And Inslee really isn't even a leftist except on this one issue he's really aggressive about.


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 Post subject: Re: 2020 Election
PostPosted: June 7 19, 12:21 pm 
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ghostrunner wrote:
After perusing it, Piketty does not seem to be arguing that centrists can't win. My read is that he's analyzing political divides as they exist and saying it's difficult in the current landscape for worker interests to be represented because of all the other fault lines that have been created. He's not attempting to answer why people don't turn out , but rather why they vote who they vote for, and how that came to be. Though I do think there's a clear implication that Democrats could pick up more votes by moving left economically.

I think it's pretty commonly held that by abandoning workers interests, Democrats have allowed a certain bloc of voters to lean toward the GOP who has courted those voters in a number of ways. Bernie won a lot of those poor or working class states in the primaries - Wisconsin, Michigan in particular - so I think that tracks pretty well and I think it's true he could have won a few of those states as the nominee. It's possible he'd have lost some other states in the bargain, but nobody knows the answer to that.

I wouldn't use the last 20-30 years as evidence that leftists can't win as POTUS, as there hasn't been a viable left candidate in most of that time. Nobody really tried. Kucinich is a goofball - he was pro-life for a long time and has defended Trump repeatedly. Even the most leftish options have still been relatively centrist - Bill Bradley, Jerry Brown, and Howard Dean come to mind. Kind of staggering to think that Jerry Brown was considered too liberal in his race. He argued for a flat tax. There's no clear choice offered in most of those 80s and 90s Democratic primaries. It's all marginal differences, and not one of them had any sort of unified set of positions. Sanders was the first genuine lefty in decades and unexpectedly did very well. I think the prediction around here was that he might win two states.

I think the game has just changed too much now, and corporate-friendly centrism is going to have a hard time making a good enough case against Trump. A centrist like Biden is going to have to dump a lot of those old positions and it seems like he's trying to do that, but I don't think it's going to work. Nobody knows [expletive] though, so...


Look at Republicans. They had their own "centrists" represented by Kasich, Rubio, Jeb! and company. They did resist Trump for a long time. But once he won, almost all of them fell in line and got behind Trump. There is still a small group out there that resists Trump but they really haven't amounted to much. They are mostly inconsequential today. I guess the key thing here is: Trump beat them. That's what's going to have to happen with Democrats I'm afraid. They won't go left until they have no choice but to go left.


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