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PostPosted: July 31 19, 1:28 pm 
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Fed cuts interest rate for 1st time since 2008.

All the juicing and deficit spending and this is still needed. ?
Trump's Budget Defictis Could Almost Double Obama's

Makes sense politically for Trump GOP to deficit spend like mad. The fallout comes later.


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PostPosted: July 31 19, 2:12 pm 
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Also Trump GOPs huuuge deficit in expanding economy makes any plans for actual socialistic[I say it in positive manner] style policies (Medicare for all, college ed/student debt) more difficult.

Socialism in the form of corporate welfare and the military industry has first dibs, isn't subject to the Same "how we going to pay for it" questions.

Starving the beast.


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PostPosted: August 5 19, 2:22 pm 
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PostPosted: August 5 19, 7:24 pm 
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sighyoung wrote:



...which please please please please let this happen somewhere around mid-Sep 2020 so that the electorate has time to realize that the "great economy" that is in part based on phony value in the stock market feels the kick really really hard at a very convenient time.


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PostPosted: August 5 19, 10:57 pm 
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sighyoung wrote:

Liesman's interpretation of history sounds weird, or maybe it's Barro's interpretation of Liesman. "Bond futures are pricing in more rate cuts" is a convoluted way of saying the yield curve is inverted. When the yield curve is inverted, the economy is generally headed to a recession. Liesman is reporting what is already well understood,

The Chinese government must realize that Trump's negotiating position is awful, that a trade war in 2020 ends his presidency. The Chinese have tools to influence American elections that Vladimir Putin only dreams about.


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PostPosted: August 6 19, 6:27 am 
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greenback44 wrote:
When the yield curve is inverted, the economy is generally headed to a recession. Liesman is reporting what is already well understood.


I'm not sure that's well understood. I mean, it's understood by the like 0.4% of the world that reads the Journal with coffee and doesn't just flip the Times business section back to the sports stuff. In general the world understands our economy right now as doing great. There are a few reasons, like for the 42% of the country who approve of Trump's job, there are the MAGA crowd who hear him say it's great so they believe it's great because they'll believe literally anything their lord and savior says. Then there are the folks who are not total fools but are unaware of the reality of this market enough to be like "yeah, Dow and NASDAQ are up, S&P is strong, unemployment is low, economy is in good shape." Never mind the market is getting inflated by deregulation and unemployment is low because of lousy gig work replacing meaningful real jobs and the next recession isn't far away, in some part based on Trump policies of reverse Robin Hood-ism--they don't understand that. And the media is happy to reiterate this. "Trump approval rating low despite good economy."--Market Watch. "The strong US economy is Trump's safety blanket"--CNN. Or Nate Silver discusses polling data based on the idea of, currently, a good economy.

The reality is Trump inherited a good economy from Obama. There's been some expansion and it's largely hot air that came from corporate tax cuts. A downturn is coming. The Dem candidates should be POUNDING the rust belt and everywhere else on this: remember last time? When W spent a bunch and blew up the economy, and we all thought it was going along nicely with a booming housing market and high stock prices? And it took Obama coming in to make tough decisions and to bail out Detroit and Wall Street and the housing market and the add regulations that this president joyously removed? Well who do you want in the White House when the next downturn comes, someone who will make the tough decisions and put Americans first or a screaming imbecile who only wants to pad his pocket and the pockets of his billionaire friends?


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PostPosted: August 6 19, 9:58 am 
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greenback44 wrote:
When the yield curve is inverted, the economy is generally headed to a recession. Liesman is reporting what is already well understood,

Not sure I accept that. It means bond traders think the Fed is going to cut meaning they expect macroeconomic conditions will be weak enough to prompt those cuts. But financial markets’ predictions of the future are not prophecies and are often wrong.

Also, my super naive read is a coming recession is fairly likely but also yield curve inversion may be worth less than face value. It has been caused directly by the Fed, a result of the round of rate hikes not having much impact on long rates so that the hikes in short rates pushed them passed long ones. If anything, that seems more of a statement of Fed impotence than anything else.

Given the impotence, they should just go ahead and immediately cut to zero and see what happens, IMO.


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PostPosted: August 6 19, 12:34 pm 
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Arthur Dent wrote:
greenback44 wrote:
When the yield curve is inverted, the economy is generally headed to a recession. Liesman is reporting what is already well understood,

Not sure I accept that. It means bond traders think the Fed is going to cut meaning they expect macroeconomic conditions will be weak enough to prompt those cuts. But financial markets’ predictions of the future are not prophecies and are often wrong.

This is certainly true. Over the last ten years I've been in the uncomfortable position of saying the bond market is wrong, because it had bond rates rising more quickly than I thought was reasonable. When real GDP growth is 2%, and inflation is 2% or less, then you really shouldn't be expecting close to 4% on a risk-free asset. It should be political suicide to even suggest such a thing.

But my point here is less about the usefulness of yield curve inversions as predictors of recessions than that Liesman is conveying a pretty basic thought with some overly complicated language.


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PostPosted: August 6 19, 4:05 pm 
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greenback44 wrote:
Liesman is conveying a pretty basic thought with some overly complicated language.

Everything about CNBC seems pretty terrible to me.


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PostPosted: August 7 19, 10:37 am 
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German Bonds plunging -negative yields -US going there?
Greenback wrote
Quote:
The Chinese government must realize that Trump's negotiating position is awful, that a trade war in 2020 ends his presidency. The Chinese have tools to influence American elections that Vladimir Putin only dreams about


RE Germany, China, the world economies - seems like US is such a dominant player -I have a hard time understanding the plus/minus for other nations' leverage politically/economically vs US led by an Orangeutan.

OPEC once had leverage. We fracked much of that a way.

We hear -what if China or whoever pulls the plug on lending to US? Or China doesn't play ball with US. Is any country in a spot to withstand the gravitational pull of US tumbling.

They are all married to US. And when we have a US stock market plunge(I realize market doesn't = economy) and the wealth controllers start pulling money out of it for a while - where can these wealth controllers put this money. I realize they have time to sit on it with a zero or negative yield, but eventually they go back in - because there hardly is anywhere else to go.

OP-ED: What a dependency we've created in the world. No wonder the unsustainable waste of natural resources (the true world wealth), and inequitable use of it.

Sorry for simplistic dumbing down. I guess what I am wondering overall is - are any other nations able to gain when US has a [expletive] up regime setting economy up for a fall?


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