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PostPosted: June 27 19, 10:01 pm 
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Bernie may never get higher in the polls than he is right now...but his support is not going to suddenly drop either. He may lose but he will be there until the end, like he was in 2016. (And probably get vilified for it again too)


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PostPosted: June 27 19, 10:28 pm 
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pioneer98 wrote:
Bernie may never get higher in the polls than he is right now...but his support is not going to suddenly drop either. He may lose but he will be there until the end, like he was in 2016. (And probably get vilified for it again too)


He was in the mid to upper 20s, even hitting the 30s in polls in Feb. Now he has trouble getting out of the teens. Warren is passing him in the polls and has passed him in betting markets. Harris, after the debate is about to get a big injection of campaign money and passed him in betting markets tonight. He's toast. He was on stage tonight yelling about how the people on the dais are why nothing has ever gotten done. To be clear, he's been in Washington since:
Harris was 17
Pete was negative-1
Gillibrand was 15
Williamson was a 29 year old martian
Yang was 6
Swalwell was 1
...and he's yelling to the crowd about how they are responsible for Washington not working. With a straight angry face and zero irony. That's...that's [expletive] up, bruh. That's literally insane, asking us to take that seriously. It's like he's still yelling about Hillary Clinton.


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PostPosted: June 28 19, 7:40 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
pioneer98 wrote:
Bernie may never get higher in the polls than he is right now...but his support is not going to suddenly drop either. He may lose but he will be there until the end, like he was in 2016. (And probably get vilified for it again too)


He was in the mid to upper 20s, even hitting the 30s in polls in Feb. Now he has trouble getting out of the teens. Warren is passing him in the polls and has passed him in betting markets. Harris, after the debate is about to get a big injection of campaign money and passed him in betting markets tonight. He's toast. He was on stage tonight yelling about how the people on the dais are why nothing has ever gotten done. To be clear, he's been in Washington since:
Harris was 17
Pete was negative-1
Gillibrand was 15
Williamson was a 29 year old martian
Yang was 6
Swalwell was 1
...and he's yelling to the crowd about how they are responsible for Washington not working. With a straight angry face and zero irony. That's...that's [expletive] up, bruh. That's literally insane, asking us to take that seriously. It's like he's still yelling about Hillary Clinton.


Sorry, bad take. Terrible really. Bernie has been Bernie for all those years with 0.0% chance of convincing the establishment pols to get socialist.


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PostPosted: June 28 19, 8:06 am 
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The polls are still pretty wobbly between Warren and Sanders in 2nd, though it was definitely consistently good for Bernie until recently.

I'm curious if that whole thing where Biden's voters' second choice was Bernie, and vice versa, is still holding up.


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PostPosted: June 28 19, 12:02 pm 
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lukethedrifter wrote:

Sorry, bad take. Terrible really. Bernie has been Bernie for all those years with 0.0% chance of convincing the establishment pols to get socialist.


You can't stand on a stage with people in their 30s and 40s and say they're the ones to blame for there being no progress. If you want to pick out Biden of the other 9 on the stage, fire away, but the 80% of that stage that was neither Biden nor Bernie has not had any opportunity to elicit meaningful change, and his words were really very misplaced and kinda stupid. This is what happens when your campaign is a litany of complaints that blame everybody else. You just keep yelling about problems and pointing fingers until you're telling the 37 year old mayor of South Bend Indiana with no federal government experience that he's problem? Or Yang? Or that bland dude? Or the Space Lady? That's just stupid. Sorry, it's just plain stupid.

Shouts out to Bernie for the Movement, which sprung from his complaining. Now we have heard the complaints, we're on the same page re those complaints, lots of other better candidates share the complaints, it's time to go away so those better candidates can talk about how they will fix the problems rather than just keep complaining.


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PostPosted: June 28 19, 12:05 pm 
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ghostrunner wrote:
The polls are still pretty wobbly between Warren and Sanders in 2nd, though it was definitely consistently good for Bernie until recently.

I'm curious if that whole thing where Biden's voters' second choice was Bernie, and vice versa, is still holding up.


This is just because Biden and Bernie were the most famous two on the ballot. Last night America got to know Kamala a little more, the night before it was Warren. The more we see of Biden and Bernie, the more they slide. The more we see of Warren and Harris, the more they rise.


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PostPosted: June 28 19, 12:25 pm 
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33anda3rd wrote:

This is just because Biden and Bernie were the most famous two on the ballot. Last night America got to know Kamala a little more, the night before it was Warren. The more we see of Biden and Bernie, the more they slide. The more we see of Warren and Harris, the more they rise.

Hope so. The physical, side by side appearance won't bode well for Biden (or Bernie). People will ask, who looks more like a president, and a candidate that can beat Trump, stay above his toddler-esque insults.

The assumed backing of Obama is the main thing Biden has going. But if Obama holds off on any sort of endorsement (I hope and suspect he will hold off) then people will question this assumption, and this will clobber Biden in the polls.


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PostPosted: June 28 19, 7:33 pm 
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Bernie, Warren, and Harris are my picks to be the last 3 standing.

I think many political wonk wannabe’s who still treat this stuff like its sports don’t realize that while Bernie was off balance, clearly frustrated by the format, and yelly last night, it doesn’t mean much for a few reasons.

1) like pioneer said, his base is the least likely to jump to another candidate no matter what. He has the highest floor of all the prospects.
2) repeating his sound bites over and over is a good, proven strategy that will pay off as the losers drop out and our actual options as voters comes into focus. Playing along with debate questions is always less important than getting your actual message across when viewers can barely distinguish who’s who and everyone is talking over each other. Warren is rising because people are slowly and surely hearing her message. Biden, Booker, Harris, the varied western state white men, all have nothing clear and compelling to say. Which brings me to Pete. God I wish we had a version of that guy who was a dem socialist. I mean, that’s pretty much AOC, but in order for many Americans to get over the S word, his calm intelligence and unflappably coherent communication skills would be really, really affective. He’ll make a great veep for a Warren run.


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PostPosted: June 28 19, 11:33 pm 
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33anda3rd wrote:
lukethedrifter wrote:

Sorry, bad take. Terrible really. Bernie has been Bernie for all those years with 0.0% chance of convincing the establishment pols to get socialist.


You can't stand on a stage with people in their 30s and 40s and say they're the ones to blame for there being no progress. If you want to pick out Biden of the other 9 on the stage, fire away, but the 80% of that stage that was neither Biden nor Bernie has not had any opportunity to elicit meaningful change, and his words were really very misplaced and kinda stupid. This is what happens when your campaign is a litany of complaints that blame everybody else. You just keep yelling about problems and pointing fingers until you're telling the 37 year old mayor of South Bend Indiana with no federal government experience that he's problem? Or Yang? Or that bland dude? Or the Space Lady? That's just stupid. Sorry, it's just plain stupid.

Shouts out to Bernie for the Movement, which sprung from his complaining. Now we have heard the complaints, we're on the same page re those complaints, lots of other better candidates share the complaints, it's time to go away so those better candidates can talk about how they will fix the problems rather than just keep complaining.


This is a really disingenuous argument, and one that I think is pretty common among mainstream liberals. For starters, it’s pretty clear that Bernie isn’t holding those candidates personally responsible for current problems, but rather their mindsets. That there is nothing wrong with our institutions, but rather the administration of those institutions. The reason Bernie has such a strong baseline support is that there’s a large number of people who agree with it. Also, you keep describing Bernie as an old man just shouting at clouds, and it’s pretty clear you haven’t watched or read any of the interviews where he has time to actually get into the weeds of why he believes things. That, or you just aren’t interested in giving him a fair chance. Criticism of Bernie is fine, but bad faith takes like this one don't produce any kind of meaningful discussion.

And that brings me to my bigger overall problem with this type of framing. I don’t mean this to be a direct attack at you, but I think the way you discuss things is indicative of a much larger problem in the Democratic and liberal media. You are being condescending and dismissive, without ever actually listening to what people are saying. Describing Bernie as complaining is framing it in a way that makes it seem like his argument doesn’t have any depth or substance. And then you say that everyone heard him and share his “complaints”. But that’s just not true. At all. None of the other people on the stage over the two debates ever got to the heart of the issue the way Bernie did in his closing statement.

Policies are good, having a discussion is good, but there has to be a massive mobilization of everyday people to actually make change. Trying to change this country entirely within the institutions as they currently exist isn’t enough, you have to be able to oppose the institutions. And Bernie is currently the only one actually articulating that message, including Warren. I like Warren, but she views policies as the end goal. Bernie knows it won’t be enough until you build a real movement that is capable of changing the system itself. So, when you say that everyone is on the same page and Bernie should get out of the way, it’s incredibly condescending to people who understand what Bernie is actually arguing for, because you aren’t on the same page at all. And sure, someone like Harris could beat Trump. But Trump isn’t the problem, he’s a symptom. And until the Democratic party and all the liberals actually work with the left instead of paying lip service and then dismissing them, the conditions that allowed Trump to get elected are only gonna get worse. Again, I don’t mean this to be a personal attack, but this is a much broader trend that I think is only going to hurt the Democratic party and prevent real, substantive change for the better.


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PostPosted: June 29 19, 9:24 am 
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IronPenguin wrote:
This is a really disingenuous argument...


That's all really nice, welcome to the board. I was a Bernie donor--the max allowed by law--in 2016, and I phone banked for him, and now I'm over him because it's not Bernie v Clinton only and there are better candidates who don't come across as a cranky northeastern complaining grandfather. I prefer more the more sober candidates. I kinda LOL when I imagine Sanders in a cabinet meeting, told by some Joint Chiefs guy that Bernie can't do exactly what he wants in some remote part of the world because of the balance of international security, and Bernie then yelling at the guy that it shouldn't be that way. I kinda LOL when I think of Bernie going to do the State of the Union--is it maybe Trump-ish in that, after a couple years in office without much change, Sanders stands in front of Congress yelling and complaining and pointing fingers? What can we point to in life, beyond his movement/fame, in which we can say "Bernie Sanders led that group toward tangible results that produced change?" I think that's a question a lot of people need to ask themselves who are still Team Sanders: how do you see him leading not a movement based in repeated soundbites of complaint, but our federal government? How do you see him managing the EU and the UK during Brexit? How do you see him dealing with North Korea? With Iran? Let's be real: he's as hard-line as Trump, shows very little flexibility, is very dismissive of non-Sanders ideas.

While you're on your soapbox about the masses of people it takes to form a movement to change the world, describe how that led to Lincoln, the first or second Roosevelt, or LBJ, highly popular (the latter three at least) Presidents who used big govt. for good.


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