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PostPosted: August 5 19, 9:24 am 
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Perfect example of the punditification of Nate Silver and 538. He builds a career on quantification > punditry and then turns into the same [expletive] artist he originally took down.


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PostPosted: August 5 19, 9:24 am 
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ghostrunner wrote:
This has been noted here before, but the vast majority of Bernie voters showed up for Hillary last time. 92% I think? Maybe 94%? More than Hillary's primary voters showed up for Obama in 2008. That kind of behavior is a reality that has to be priced in, recognizing that a good chunk of voters either don't operate ideologically or vote based on particular motivations which are only satisfied by certain candidates.


Sure, and Hillary won by a few million votes.

That math must be ran state-by-state. What happened in WI, MI, PA, OH frankly is all that matters. If Bernie->Hillary voters ran those numbers up in places like CA, NY, IL then they're irrelevant.


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PostPosted: August 5 19, 10:01 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
This has been noted here before, but the vast majority of Bernie voters showed up for Hillary last time. 92% I think? Maybe 94%? More than Hillary's primary voters showed up for Obama in 2008. That kind of behavior is a reality that has to be priced in, recognizing that a good chunk of voters either don't operate ideologically or vote based on particular motivations which are only satisfied by certain candidates.


Sure, and Hillary won by a few million votes.

That math must be ran state-by-state. What happened in WI, MI, PA, OH frankly is all that matters. If Bernie->Hillary voters ran those numbers up in places like CA, NY, IL then they're irrelevant.


That's fine, but it doesn't make Bernie or Bust a real issue or matter of concern in the Democratic Party. Either you think those people can be convinced and you make the effort, or you don't and move on to activating other voters.


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PostPosted: August 5 19, 10:25 am 
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ghostrunner wrote:
33anda3rd wrote:
ghostrunner wrote:
This has been noted here before, but the vast majority of Bernie voters showed up for Hillary last time. 92% I think? Maybe 94%? More than Hillary's primary voters showed up for Obama in 2008. That kind of behavior is a reality that has to be priced in, recognizing that a good chunk of voters either don't operate ideologically or vote based on particular motivations which are only satisfied by certain candidates.


Sure, and Hillary won by a few million votes.

That math must be ran state-by-state. What happened in WI, MI, PA, OH frankly is all that matters. If Bernie->Hillary voters ran those numbers up in places like CA, NY, IL then they're irrelevant.


That's fine, but it doesn't make Bernie or Bust a real issue or matter of concern in the Democratic Party. Either you think those people can be convinced and you make the effort, or you don't and move on to activating other voters.


Or those folks need to put their money where their mouth is and be productive with their vote. Helping empower the white supremacist and the party of the NRA and the Paul Ryans of the world who want to gift the rich and screw over the poor because Hillary Clinton is cozy with Wall Street is stupid, immoral and hypocritical for people who claim to care and to be politically active.


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PostPosted: August 5 19, 10:51 am 
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I doubt many of the Sanders to Trump voters did so because of Hillary's coziness with Wall Street, or her emails, or whatever. I'm guessing the large portion of these voters were simply people looking for "something different". Sanders has been in politics forever, but still gives the vibe of an outsider. Trump was supposedly the ultimate outsider. Hillary is pretty much the ultimate insider.

We make the mistake of giving the general public way too much credit when it comes to how they vote. There is a good percentage of the population that votes based on "feel" or likability of a candidate. Trump is of course unlikable to most of us, but for some reason there are a lot of people who love how he "tells it like it is."


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PostPosted: August 6 19, 5:13 pm 
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Popeye_Card wrote:
We make the mistake of giving the general public way too much credit when it comes to how they vote.

I would put it a bit less negatively, but yes, the way typical voters think about candidates is quite disconnected from how obsessives see it, and the anxiety among the more engaged surrounding Trump has only made this disconnect more stark.


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PostPosted: August 8 19, 5:31 pm 
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I know that most here aren't Biden supporters. I get it........ I do. I'm not even asking you to change your mind about that.

However, I would highly encourage you to listen to his speech from Burlington Iowa last night. My sister was actually there. She's met Cory Booker, Elizabeth Warren, Beto, Bernie and Castro now. She's fully on board with EW (also a fan of Kamala Harris, so we differ on that). This Biden speech brought her to tears.



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PostPosted: August 9 19, 3:18 pm 
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Good speech. I'm glad Biden is in the mix. My main worry about him at this point is his age. He's lost a step and at times seems confused and dazed. How will he hold up over a grueling campaign?


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 3:49 pm 
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G. Keenan wrote:
Good speech. I'm glad Biden is in the mix. My main worry about him at this point is his age. He's lost a step and at times seems confused and dazed. How will he hold up over a grueling campaign?


Totally agree, Keenan. I love that he's a player, but his gaffes seem to be pretty regular these days. I was stunned at how eloquent he was in this speech. I can't recall that last time I saw that from him.


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