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PostPosted: August 29 19, 9:47 am 
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planet planet wrote:
What are the chances that either Sanders or Warren drops out of the race in order to avoid a Biden nomination?

I don't see either dropping solely to stop Biden; I think Warren would be concerned about pushback from party leadership and Bernie is far too principled/stubborn to give up just to block Biden.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 9:50 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
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She wasn't a great candidate and I've got a few problems with her, though I did like her early on. She started moving left on a number of things well before other Senators and before she started running.


We've jostled on her a bit the last couple days, and I'll leave you with this. When Warren was testifying before the Senate to protect working class families from predatory consumer lending and the awfulness of the bankruptcy process in 2005, Gillibrand was a corporate lawyer inspired by Hillary Clinton to get involved in party politics. People can correctly point out that Warren used to be Republican, yet Warren the former Republican has been on the side of the correct progressive stuff since Gillibrand was a corporate attorney.


Warren is and has been my candidate for a while, so you don't need to convince me. Gillibrand has made some course corrections over time, which I give some credit for, whatever the reasoning. There's a whole political party and a good chunk of the Democrats still stuck in the 90s, and she isn't. So I say good for her.

Oh yeah, she endorsed Marie Newman against Dan Lipinski very early and against the party establishment. Had forgotten about that one. Didn't endorse Nixon, but nobody's perfect.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 10:23 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
planet planet wrote:
What are the chances that either Sanders or Warren drops out of the race in order to avoid a Biden nomination?


Warren is going to win so there's no chance she drops.

You can quote me on that.

I agree. Bernie actually can't drop out without totally disenfranchising his "movement."

It will be interesting to see them as a final 2 and force them to articulate their differences. From a 10,000 foot level with 1,000 candidates on a debate stage, there isn't a lot, but when you really get into the weeds, there are some very meaningful splits. We'll really be able to take the progressive voting block's temperature around some hot button issues when everyone clears out and lets those two cook. Because of those differences, Bernie can't drop out and maintain any kind of credibility and momentum for what's become his wing of democratic politics over the last 4 years.

If I had to guess, America just isn't quite ready to run in a general election on the "S" word and Warren wins fairly handily.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 10:29 am 
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thrill wrote:
33anda3rd wrote:
planet planet wrote:
What are the chances that either Sanders or Warren drops out of the race in order to avoid a Biden nomination?


Warren is going to win so there's no chance she drops.

You can quote me on that.

I agree. Bernie actually can't drop out without totally disenfranchising his "movement."

It will be interesting to see them as a final 2 and force them to articulate their differences. From a 10,000 foot level with 1,000 candidates on a debate stage, there isn't a lot, but when you really get into the weeds, there are some very meaningful splits. We'll really be able to take the progressive voting block's temperature around some hot button issues when everyone clears out and lets those two cook. Because of those differences, Bernie can't drop out and maintain any kind of credibility and momentum for what's become his wing of democratic politics over the last 4 years.

If I had to guess, America just isn't quite ready to run in a general election on the "S" word and Warren wins fairly handily.


Who do you see in a scenario in which Sanders and Warren are the last two standing being:
Final 3rd standing?
Final 4th standing?

I kinda feel like Pete's net positive likability points a bit to him picking up steam eventually. I'm not saying it's going to happen, or even that it's likely to happen, but I do see a path in which he outlasts Biden for the White Guy Who Is Not A Socialist vote.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 10:34 am 
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I think Harris will be a clear 3rd and I have no idea who of Buttigieg or Booker gets 4th, but I think it's one of those two. They're both extremely strong VP candidates too.

I obviously have no faith in Biden. I think he's going to drop out fairly quickly. They just can't keep up the charade of hiding him from the public/media, and every time he makes an appearance, he hurts himself. It's got to catch up when the primaries actually start.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 10:56 am 
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I think the Biden timeline goes:

--flubs his way through every FW19 debate
--makes a handful of awkward public appearances and 1-2 good ones
--has significant trouble raising money in Q4 2019
--enters the new year 2nd-3rd in polling
--4th in IA
--3rd in NH
--limps into SC where he thought he would be strong b/c black Dems like him and finishes 2nd, maybe 3rd
--2nd in NV at best, maybe 3rd
--even more trouble raising money in Q1 2020 than Q4 2019
--embarrassment of Obama not endorsing and his org in disarray as major 2-day news cycle
--then Super Tuesday seals his fate and he drops out, endorsing Buttigieg


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 11:33 am 
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thrill wrote:
I obviously have no faith in Biden. I think he's going to drop out fairly quickly. They just can't keep up the charade of hiding him from the public/media, and every time he makes an appearance, he hurts himself. It's got to catch up when the primaries actually start.

I don’t understand why there is so much confidence that Biden will collapse. I hope so, and I don’t think collapse is unlikely exactly, but also, it seems like the most likely outcome is that he wins. Reminds me a bit of the 2016 Republican primary where everyone assumed that Trump was going to collapse and fought amongst themselves on that basis.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 11:43 am 
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Arthur Dent wrote:
thrill wrote:
I obviously have no faith in Biden. I think he's going to drop out fairly quickly. They just can't keep up the charade of hiding him from the public/media, and every time he makes an appearance, he hurts himself. It's got to catch up when the primaries actually start.

I don’t understand why there is so much confidence that Biden will collapse. I hope so, and I don’t think collapse is unlikely exactly, but also, it seems like the most likely outcome is that he wins. Reminds me a bit of the 2016 Republican primary where everyone assumed that Trump was going to collapse and fought amongst themselves on that basis.


I think it rests on Biden being the safe default, rather than genuinely popular. Trump is popular and draws crowds. Biden's support and strength seems mostly external - perception, donors, party leaders and loyalists. Bernie and Warren draw crowds and have big donor bases. Seems like eventually that enthusiasm and aversion to Biden has to seep out into the general voting public. Iowa being a caucus seems like it probably works against him too. Though I'm not that confident in any of that.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 11:56 am 
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To me, Biden is Jeb! 2016. Big name. Legacy. Big donors. Absolutely nowhere near to having the pulse of the political and cultural moment he's running in.

Plus he's a notoriously bad campaigner. Don't know why that would change. The Obama shine would've translated 4 years ago, but he missed his moment.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 1:45 pm 
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thrill wrote:
To me, Biden is Jeb! 2016. Big name. Legacy. Big donors. Absolutely nowhere near to having the pulse of the political and cultural moment he's running in.

Plus he's a notoriously bad campaigner. Don't know why that would change. The Obama shine would've translated 4 years ago, but he missed his moment.


This.

And he will only lose support as time goes on, not gain any new voters. The only upticks he gets in polls so far is within polling error. As candidates drop out, people who are supporting one of the random people that the public knows little about aren't likely to shift to the guy who only has broad support because of name recognition. Maybe he would pick up a few percentage points from a Harris/Booker/Pete centrist candidate dropping out, but I still don't see that as highly likely.

I can't really think of a scenario where I'd pick Biden over any of the other Democrat contenders. I'd pick him before Trump, of course. This gives me an idea for how we should do the next Democratic Primary poll.


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