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PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:46 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
Radbird wrote:
I hope you're right - certainly the shifting demographics point to it. But it was just 3 years ago that everyone was sure that their disastrous 2016 presidential candidate would take the party down with him.


It just took a few years longer than assumed. This three years has given a lot of people who voted Trump the opportunity to realize "oh, yeah, everything he campaigned on really was what he is." All those hold-the-nose-and-vote moderates in the GOP.

Enough to make up for the non-voting racists that are now motivated to vote for their man? Not sure.


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:47 am 
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TheoSqua wrote:
Spoiler: show
Freed Roger wrote:
And mainstream dems will do their damndest to mess this demographic situation that favors them up. Triangulation, bad candidates etc. And once this sugared up GOP economy goes into recession, Dems may be in majority, abd the recipients of the problem. I don't trust the public to relate it back to supply side GOPers.


I think the problem for Democrats is a lot more nuanced than that. They are a party of more people and more views, specifically because they're the party that is for doing things.

Take the ballooning student loan problem. On the conservative side it's really easy to be united. It's not the government's job to pay private debt. And the vast majority of republicans agree with that wether they be what's left of tea party movement, trump fanboys, just plain ol' conservatives, libertarians, etc.

On the Democratic side there is a wide variance between what the various candidates want to do. Some want to pay it all off ala Bernie, some want to only pay certain parts off, some want to slowly forgive debt, and some think that's not the issue to tackle.

Saying "that's not our problem" is a very easy stance to get 100% unity of a party from, saying "Here is how we will solve it" is much harder to get unity. So you have a party where, even if a candidate like Trump where a lot of people on the right weren't a fan, he's conservative enough that they'll still vote for him. Compare that to a Hillary vs Bernie where a large portion of supporters for Bernie just didn't vote or couldn't get behind Hillary.

Democrats really need strong unifying leaders to get the entire group behind an idea. It's why most Democratic leaders in our past come across as very charismatic, great speakers, and run on platforms of general positivity and improvement. I think Obama, Clinton, Kennedy, and Roosevelt all fall in that category. There are some republicans like that too, but it's way less likely that a Trump/Bush type would ever excel on the democrat side simply because they don't have the ability to unite like is needed for Democrats. As a republican you get the advantage of "I hate that guy, but at least he's not a Democrat." that the other side will never have.

I agree with your post, thanks for sharing it.

I will boil it back down again, TrumpGOP appeal is to the reptile brain.

Dems don't have that luxury. Even the bogus claim that dems lure in voters with free stuff*. It isn't that easy. Even a dog sniffs it over before eating.

*bolster Theo post, the nuances of the dem situation. Claire McCaskill is calling these plans "free stuff". Hard to unify anything on dem side.

There will always be a market for the GOP with our reptilian side. We see this all over the world too- UK, Germany, France etc -the nationalists conservatives arent going away.


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:52 am 
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Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
33anda3rd wrote:
Radbird wrote:
I hope you're right - certainly the shifting demographics point to it. But it was just 3 years ago that everyone was sure that their disastrous 2016 presidential candidate would take the party down with him.


It just took a few years longer than assumed. This three years has given a lot of people who voted Trump the opportunity to realize "oh, yeah, everything he campaigned on really was what he is." All those hold-the-nose-and-vote moderates in the GOP.

Enough to make up for the non-voting racists that are now motivated to vote for their man? Not sure.


Yes. They are dying off. To go back to my first post:
Disproportionately male--men are minority.
Disproportionately white--white will soon be less than the combination of non-white.
Disproportionately old--old dies.

The only black GOP Congressman is retiring. There are--this is true--barely more female Republicans in Congress (23) than there are white guys named Jim/James/Jimmy (17). In the house it's 15 GOP Ladies - 14 White Jims IIRC. The woman the GOP put in charge of recruiting female candidates for the house quit the job, it was too much--and let's be real, you can't recruit women to run for a party that hates them, they're going to gravitate to the other side. They are about to have a second consecutive Congressional election in which a LOT of their membership retires.

Also it's not just the moderate GOPers who change. It's the black Americans who turned out low for Hillary who will be motivated to get rid of Trump and his demagoguery. It's the Hispanic Americans who will register to vote and go vote who have not before because people who look like them are in cages. It's the women.


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 11:49 am 
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We should also recall that the only Republican to win the popular vote since the first Bush in 1988 has been George Dubya's re-election in '04. A Republican has only won the popular vote once in the past 30 years! And yet the freakin' Electoral College has now inflicted 2 disastrous Republican presidents on the country. What to make of that? This piece from a few weeks ago give me hope that this demographic trends argument might save us from ourselves.

Democrats Can Win by Running Against Trump’s Racism

Spoiler: show
Quote:
President Trump’s tweet attacks on members of Congress of color, from “the squad” to Representative Elijah Cummings, have made it clear that fanning the flames of white racial resentment is central to his politics and re-election strategy.

For decades, some left-leaning strategists stifled their candidates’ response to dog whistles for fear of alienating whites who they thought might otherwise support Democrats. Today, there is still great ambivalence about making the fight against racism a defining issue in the 2020 election.

But the cold hard truth is that our elections are already racialized — and have been ever since Congress codified the concept of racial equality in the 1960s by passing the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the 1965 Voting Rights Act.

With every attack, Democrats are now speaking out. And decades of election data on voter behavior show that Democrats are on firm ground in making the president’s overt racism a prominent campaign issue. That data shows that there are enough white voters for Democrats to defeat a president stirring racial resentment. It might, in a tight race, be barely enough — but enough. And the math gets more promising in 2020 when the electorate will be more racially diverse than at any previous time in United States history.

In every presidential election for the past 50 years, a majority of white voters have voted against the Democratic nominee, and the overwhelming majority of people of color have sided with the Democrats.

But there is a determined and consistent core of whites who always vote Democratic. Since the advent of exit polling of racial groups in 1976, no Democrat has received less than 34 percent of the white vote (that was Walter Mondale in 1984, losing 49 states in a landslide to Ronald Reagan). The historical average of white support for Democrats is almost 40 percent, and Hillary Clinton, up against Mr. Trump’s thinly disguised call to Make America White Again, garnered the support of 37 percent of white voters.


What we learned in the 2016 election is that 37 percent of the white vote is enough to win the popular vote by nearly three million people. Obviously something went wrong in three critical states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — where Mr. Trump prevailed by nearly 80,000 votes, tipping the Electoral College in his favor. But many progressives are drawing the wrong conclusions about what happened in those states.

It’s true that the requisite amount of white support for a Democrat to win in those three states is approximately 3 percent higher than the number necessary to win the national popular vote. The exit poll data from 2016 shows two major realities that are important for current political analysis and strategy. Mrs. Clinton came exceedingly close to winning those states. Had she secured just 0.5 percent more of the white vote, she would be president.

But perhaps even more important, Mrs. Clinton’s diminished white support was not primarily a result of Democratic defections to Mr. Trump (the now near-mythical “Obama-Trump voter”). The increase in white support for the third- and fourth-party candidates — from 2012 to 2016 — was greater than the increase for Mr. Trump. In fact, in Wisconsin, he got fewer votes than Mitt Romney received four years earlier, disproving the notion that waves of disaffected Democratic voters swelled the Republican ranks. If everything else holds steady in 2020, and Democrats win back just the Obama-Jill Stein voters, they will take Michigan and Wisconsin.

Which raises the obvious and clearest point — there are not only white people in those states. The number of voters who stayed home in 2016 in Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia was far larger than the margin of Democratic defeat in those states. As people of color become a bigger portion of the voting population, the number of white votes required to win steadily shrinks. In fact, a group of think tanks released a report last year showing that if all of the country’s racial groups replicate in 2020 their voter turnout and partisan preferences of 2016 — essentially a “do-over” — the Democrats would win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, just because of the demographic changes over the past four years.

By doubling down on racial diversity and standing strong against racism, Democrats would align with population changes and be able to expand the electoral map by credibly contesting the key Southern and Southwestern states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, among others. (Mrs. Clinton lost Arizona by 91,000 votes; 500,000 eligible Latinos in that state didn’t vote.)

America is getting browner by the hour, given that every single day, as of 2016 data, the United States population increases by 8,000 people and 90 percent of that growth comes from people of color. Moreover, an additional seven million teenagers of color will have turned 18 since the 2016 election. With this demographic revolution transforming the country, Democrats do not actually have to increase their level of white support — they just need to hold it steady, as the core of whites who vote Democratic have done for 40 years.

Beyond the morality of the matter, the mathematical reality means that standing strong against racism is a good electoral calculus for Democrats.



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PostPosted: August 9 19, 12:13 pm 
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Yes to all that GK.

This will run its course in a matter of years just by population / demographic change.

White guys were 31% of the country in 2014.
62% of white men voted Trump.

25.4% of the country is evangelical
77% of white evangelicals went Trump.

20.8% of the country is white catholics
64% of white catholics voted Trump.

That is The Base. White men and the religious. And those groups are rapidly shrinking. They can't fire enough bullets to stop the browning of the country and the GOP that they support will be extinct in 30 years or less because of it, all for the better of the country and mankind.


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PostPosted: September 6 19, 5:33 am 
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Editorial on the new book "R.I.P. G.O.P."

Quote:
Trump hatred is a much more potent force in this country than Trump love. There is one way, and one way only, that Trump may surpass Barack Obama. Though Obama was a community organizer, Trump could turn out to be much better at mobilizing progressives.


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PostPosted: September 6 19, 7:34 am 
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33anda3rd wrote:
They can't fire enough bullets to stop the browning of the country and the GOP that they support will be extinct in 30 years or less because of it, all for the better of the country and mankind.

At some point you'd think they'd embrace the latinx community, because many are conservative catholics and if the GOP wasn't such nazis about immigration and racial hegemony, could build a really substantial base there.


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PostPosted: September 6 19, 7:38 am 
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freed did it again!


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PostPosted: September 6 19, 9:10 am 
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Jocephus wrote:
freed did it again!


?


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PostPosted: September 6 19, 9:13 am 
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tlombard wrote:
Jocephus wrote:
freed did it again!


?

well, its actually old but his post from 8/9 has thrown the page off.


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