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PostPosted: October 10 18, 3:00 pm 
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what the hell did Obama do now?!


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 7:34 am 
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Such a weird situation where the market is seemingly rooting for poor financial news in order to keep rates lower despite the Fed unambiguously saying they feel rates are too low and are committed to increasing them.

Markets were down 3% or so until weak inflation data came out this AM (0.1 reported v 0.2 expected) and the markets regained most of their losses.

Pretty obvious a correction is on the horizon unless external factors **cough** trade wars **cough** damper financial expectations for the future.

Also, such a huge deficit during financial prosperity is not ideal.


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 7:37 am 
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
Such a weird situation where the market is seemingly rooting for poor financial news in order to keep rates lower despite the Fed unambiguously saying they feel rates are too low and are committed to increasing them.

Markets were down 3% or so until weak inflation data came out this AM (0.1 reported v 0.2 expected) and the markets regained most of their losses.

Pretty obvious a correction is on the horizon unless external factors **cough** trade wars **cough** damper financial expectations for the future.

Also, such a huge deficit during financial prosperity is not ideal.

We're set up for a big correction IMO. I'm about 75% cash and have been since the tax changes. That debt bomb is going to go off. And the Chinese, if they feel they are trapped, just might give it a push.


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 8:26 am 
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I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 9:10 am 
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Shifting to cash probably isn’t a terrible strategy for a bit. I don’t think we’re on the cusp of an incredible rally.


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 9:18 am 
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Michael wrote:
I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".

What protects you during downturns if say the market were to go into a bear rally and the 10 year T-bond climbs to, say, 4% over the next year?


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 9:24 am 
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Popeye_Card wrote:
Shifting to cash probably isn’t a terrible strategy for a bit. I don’t think we’re on the cusp of an incredible rally.


A lot of people said the same thing during the Obama during and after Trump was elected.

If you predict a major market downturn for long enough you'll eventually be right, but staying the course with a 3 fund portfolio will likely beat professional and amateur investors who time the market.

I'll end this by linking this post from a respected investor on BogleHeads called "A time to EVALUATE your jitters". It was written after the 2011 market downturn where the markets plunged around 10-15%. It's not really about a specific investing strategy, but assessing your ability to handle risk when you're nervous about the markets. I think it should be required reading for all investors.


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 12:24 pm 
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Michael wrote:
I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".

I dodged 2008 and then have been plus but not nearly the upside others have seen since we moved to Trumpistan. But I'll take my slow and steady every day of the week. My portfolio is up today while the market is down 1% or so.


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 1:00 pm 
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Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
Michael wrote:
I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".

I dodged 2008 and then have been plus but not nearly the upside others have seen since we moved to Trumpistan. But I'll take my slow and steady every day of the week. My portfolio is up today while the market is down 1% or so.


I hear you. Ultimately it's your money and you have to sleep at night with how much risk you're comfortable with*. I was just giving a different perspective. I tend to focus on asset allocations vs market conditions. With asset allocations I can back test and focus on things I can control/understand. On the other hand, in my opinion, short term market valuations/conditions are pretty irrational so trying to figure it out is pointless and stressful.

*my investing style can work with conservative investors as well. Good asset allocations can actually reduce risk.


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PostPosted: October 11 18, 7:16 pm 
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Michael wrote:
Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
Michael wrote:
I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".

I dodged 2008 and then have been plus but not nearly the upside others have seen since we moved to Trumpistan. But I'll take my slow and steady every day of the week. My portfolio is up today while the market is down 1% or so.


I hear you. Ultimately it's your money and you have to sleep at night with how much risk you're comfortable with*. I was just giving a different perspective. I tend to focus on asset allocations vs market conditions. With asset allocations I can back test and focus on things I can control/understand. On the other hand, in my opinion, short term market valuations/conditions are pretty irrational so trying to figure it out is pointless and stressful.

*my investing style can work with conservative investors as well. Good asset allocations can actually reduce risk.

The other part of this is I'm 6-7 years from retirement so I don't want a lot of risk either.


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