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PostPosted: August 26 19, 9:32 pm 
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Has an anecdote about a townie he overheard.
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heyzeus wrote:
A crash is coming. A real one this time.



It's already here in rural America. Everyone knows it and no one will admit it. Pretty serious rumors of some big time Ag players in our area about to go under. It will be a huge domino effect here when it starts.


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PostPosted: August 27 19, 7:03 am 
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I wonder if all the people who protested in '08 will leave their pitchforks and torches at home this time, what with their economic outlook not really changing over the last decade and none of the people responsible seeing any kind of justice?


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PostPosted: August 27 19, 8:24 am 
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IMADreamer wrote:
heyzeus wrote:
A crash is coming. A real one this time.



It's already here in rural America. Everyone knows it and no one will admit it. Pretty serious rumors of some big time Ag players in our area about to go under. It will be a huge domino effect here when it starts.


Then I suppose the land gets bought at a fraction the value by big farm corporations, helping them further price out competition establishing bigger and bigger monopolies on the food we eat.


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PostPosted: August 27 19, 8:27 am 
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thrill wrote:
I wonder if all the people who protested in '08 will leave their pitchforks and torches at home this time, what with their economic outlook not really changing over the last decade and none of the people responsible seeing any kind of justice?


Failing those responsible get the best kind of justice--a long time in a small room--we do have the second-best justice available to us in the ballot box. There are candidates talking about reform and regulation and a system that works for everyone. It's time for those who are impacted to vote with the reality of their wallet rather than their fantasies of the world.


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PostPosted: August 27 19, 11:10 am 
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Has an anecdote about a townie he overheard.
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33anda3rd wrote:
IMADreamer wrote:
heyzeus wrote:
A crash is coming. A real one this time.



It's already here in rural America. Everyone knows it and no one will admit it. Pretty serious rumors of some big time Ag players in our area about to go under. It will be a huge domino effect here when it starts.


Then I suppose the land gets bought at a fraction the value by big farm corporations, helping them further price out competition establishing bigger and bigger monopolies on the food we eat.


On the surface you would think that, but I'm not sure it works that way in reality. For example let's take the internet's favorite boogie man Monsanto (now Beyer). They really don't go around buying up land, most of their production is done on leased land so they can move it around the area to help reduce risks of contamination and pest pressure. Not to mention a floudering Ag economy hurts them as much as it does anyone else.

Who I think will benefit most are two groups. Mid to large farms with enough leverage to go get more land and outside investment groups. Think Saudi Arabia and places like that who are looking to buy arable land. Basically the trend will be to move ownership off the farm to out of state or out of country means. It's already been a huge issue as the WWII generation dies and the baby boomers inherit the land.

However I don't think there is some big land price crash coming. The people who will be buyers will have the money and there will be plenty of them. Prime ground around here still is going for 14-15k an acre, which can not be paid for by farming. So it's investment groups buying that ground.


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PostPosted: August 27 19, 3:37 pm 
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Does Monsanto (Beyer) even farm to make money? I would think the only farmland they own/lease would be for R&D purposes.


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PostPosted: August 27 19, 4:28 pm 
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Good news, guys. My dad says if Trump gets reelected, our economy is going up like a damn rocket ship. This changes everything.


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PostPosted: August 27 19, 5:48 pm 
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Popeye_Card wrote:
Does Monsanto (Beyer) even farm to make money? I would think the only farmland they own/lease would be for R&D purposes.


That's my understanding. One of my brothers runs a farm for Monsanto in Maui, and that's what they do. Before Monsanto was bought by Bayer, Monsanto was thinking about consolidating and automating production (think greenhouses and automated watering), but I don't think that has panned out. I don't know if Bayer is still pursuing something like that, or even if the technology is there to do that kind of thing yet.


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PostPosted: August 28 19, 6:39 pm 
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Has an anecdote about a townie he overheard.
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Popeye_Card wrote:
Does Monsanto (Beyer) even farm to make money? I would think the only farmland they own/lease would be for R&D purposes.



It's all R&D around here, can't speak to elsewhere I guess. Being so close to St. Louis they have a huge presence here. We've leased our land to them before as has many others I know. It's all R&D and often times the actual grain, or whatever they are growing is destroyed at the end of the year because it may not be approved yet by the USDA.


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PostPosted: August 29 19, 9:02 am 
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thrill wrote:
Good news, guys. My dad says if Trump gets reelected, our economy is going up like a damn rocket ship. This changes everything.


This really is an interesting phenomenon. Despite actual numbers showing that hiring, wage growth, manufacturing, and exports have slowed under Trump vs. Obama, that farm bankruptcies are up like 30%, and that consumer prices are rising due to tariffs, he keeps the faith. And of course the deficit is skyrocketing.

Like, Trump is actually president right now and has a full year left in his term. I guess he is still building the rocket ship and we'll have to wait for a second term to see it take flight.


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