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 Post subject: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: March 31 16, 9:31 pm 
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This is kind of make or break time for them. They are unveiling the Model 3 tonight. This is supposed to be more their mass market vehicle. They are taking pre-orders and the earliest you will get one is December 2017, but a lot of people expect that date to be delayed. Chevy and others are going to beat them to market with electric options, too.

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/l ... story.html

You can check out the unveiling here (you have to give your email to be able to stream the video):
https://model3.tesla.com/


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: March 31 16, 9:58 pm 
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Musk said they got 115,000 preorders for Model 3's in the last 24 hours


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: March 31 16, 11:20 pm 
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Here's my take on Tesla which I'm sure you guys are all dying to hear. Tesla makes an ok car, but you are basically paying a luxury for the electric car part of it. Take this car for example, if you look at the stats it's a Ford Focus. So you have a 20k dollar car selling for 35k. That the P85 or whatever they call it . This is Mercedes E class, BMW 5 series, and Audi S5 territory in price, but it's not that level of car. Again you are paying for the electric motor while you get stiffed on things like interior quality and features. Not to mention the limited range.

This new Tesla 3 is supposed to do 200 miles. This means if I'm heading to Chicago I'll need to fill up with electricity somewhere around Joliet and no one wants to stop at Joliet for the day. Even trips to St. Louis are iffy because that's about 150 miles round trip. Maybe we do a little shopping hit up some different malls, or restaurants, then head down to the game. Do I really want to be at Bowling Green and going "jesus I hope I can make it the next 30 miles home." Again because if you run out, you are screwed. This isn't a 5 minute fill up, not that you can just fill up with electricity anywhere anyway.

The main problem of this all is that while it sounds good. Hey I'm not using gas, you are just using coal or natural gas to make that electricity.

I'm just not sold on it yet. Clearly 120k pre orders says some people are, but I'll stick with gas for now.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: March 31 16, 11:25 pm 
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Here's another question. When this thing breaks down, which it will, who works on it? You don't have a dealer to go to. It's a 35k dollar car so it's not like they are flying a tech out to your house to fix it.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: April 1 16, 5:11 am 
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Tesla is a novelty. Once the shine wears off, they better have a much better product because as of right now it's just not worth it. Almost everyone is making hybrids right now. One of the advantages of these in the high end industry (from my understanding and ima feel free to chime in) is that they have the best of both worlds. You get better mpg in city driving and you get an added 'kick' off the start line. And, you have the reliability/convenience of a motor that runs on petrol and can get you anywhere that has roads....where as with tesla, you're trips are very limited, relatively speaking.

Also, their self driving function is cool, but the rest of the auto industry is about to catch up in that regard as well. Volvo is coming out with a vehicle that will drive itself up to 80 mph later this year and has pilot assist available on cars now that basically drive the car up to 30 mph with a lead vehicle. Audi drove a car coast to coast a while ago and that's soon to be available. Self adjusting cruise control (where your car maintains a time gap to the car in front of you....ie, it changes speed so you don't have to) and lane assist (where the car will nudge the steering wheel to keep it between the lines) are becoming readily available on many brands. And, if you have lane assist and adjusting cruise control, how far are you from teslas self driving car? Not very.

All this to say, Tesla was talking about a lot of cool [expletive] while other people were doing it. People tend to think they're leaps and bounds ahead of the market in 1. autonomous driving and 2. electric powered vehicles. While they may be decently better at 2 than some, they're still very limited in their real world use. And, regarding #1, I'd venture a guess that even if they maintain their lead, the rest of the world will be neck and neck with them in 5 years. I doubt tesla is around in a decade unless they find a way to greatly improve efficiency/range and/or lower their prices....either way their stock is overvalued and likely a bad investment going forward.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: April 1 16, 6:54 am 
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IMADreamer wrote:
Here's another question. When this thing breaks down, which it will, who works on it? You don't have a dealer to go to. It's a 35k dollar car so it's not like they are flying a tech out to your house to fix it.


In the presentation last night he said right now they have over 200 Tesla stores where you can buy parts and get your car fixed, and they are working on doubling that by the end of next year.

The weird thing is that this car will require less overall maintenance and just won't have a lot of problems that normal cars have. It doesn't have an engine or any of the stuff that goes along with that.

However, when it does break down, it will be a frustrating problem. Like when your cell phone acts up or or you crack your screen. It will be more like going to get tech support to get it fixed than going to a mechanic.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: April 1 16, 7:09 am 
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I don't know too much about Tesla's potential beyond toy for super rich liberals.

I do know that the Model S is by far the nicest car I've ever ridden in and by far the most fun to drive. It's insanely good.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: April 1 16, 7:09 am 
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AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
Tesla is a novelty. Once the shine wears off, they better have a much better product because as of right now it's just not worth it. Almost everyone is making hybrids right now. One of the advantages of these in the high end industry (from my understanding and ima feel free to chime in) is that they have the best of both worlds. You get better mpg in city driving and you get an added 'kick' off the start line. And, you have the reliability/convenience of a motor that runs on petrol and can get you anywhere that has roads....where as with tesla, you're trips are very limited, relatively speaking.

Also, their self driving function is cool, but the rest of the auto industry is about to catch up in that regard as well. Volvo is coming out with a vehicle that will drive itself up to 80 mph later this year and has pilot assist available on cars now that basically drive the car up to 30 mph with a lead vehicle. Audi drove a car coast to coast a while ago and that's soon to be available. Self adjusting cruise control (where your car maintains a time gap to the car in front of you....ie, it changes speed so you don't have to) and lane assist (where the car will nudge the steering wheel to keep it between the lines) are becoming readily available on many brands. And, if you have lane assist and adjusting cruise control, how far are you from teslas self driving car? Not very.

All this to say, Tesla was talking about a lot of cool [expletive] while other people were doing it. People tend to think they're leaps and bounds ahead of the market in 1. autonomous driving and 2. electric powered vehicles. While they may be decently better at 2 than some, they're still very limited in their real world use. And, regarding #1, I'd venture a guess that even if they maintain their lead, the rest of the world will be neck and neck with them in 5 years. I doubt tesla is around in a decade unless they find a way to greatly improve efficiency/range and/or lower their prices....either way their stock is overvalued and likely a bad investment going forward.


The concern about the range of the car....Tesla is putting "supercharging" stations across the country where you could recharge your car quickly (in like 30 minutes) when you are on a road trip. It wouldn't be that different from stopping for gas. I don't know if other cars like the Chevy Bolt would be able to use these stations, or if Chevy has a similar plan for something like this. I was pretty unimpressed with the Bolt when I read it would take 9 hours to fully charge. If electric cars take 9 hours to recharge, it will be a problem.

I agree that Musk's business model is almost exactly like Apple's when Steve Jobs was there. The giant touchscreen mounted on the dashboard even made it seem like the kind of car that Apple would make. It's an iCar. Musk's presentation last night started out with a spiel about global warming. You are paying a premium to be a part of their vision for the future or whatever.

I do think in the long term that electric cars are the way of the future and they will get these concerns about charging, range, etc, worked out. If the Chevy Bolt or Nissan Leaf work just as well as a Tesla, but are cheaper and have a better dealer network, then I'd have no problem buying one of those cars someday. I'm also an Android user though.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: April 1 16, 7:10 am 
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Getting more into Tesla's stock. It's market cap is 30B. Fords is 53B and GMs is 48B. Ford and GM earn ~$2 and $5 per share every year, respectively. Tesla loses about $2 per share. Obviously as they ramp up and sell more cars, that will, hopefully, become positive. But, going forward, it's just tough to believe that they are going to continue to be valued so highly unless their product greatly improves. Like I said...it's a novelty at this point but likely won't be in the future.


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 Post subject: Re: Tesla Motors
PostPosted: April 1 16, 7:17 am 
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IMADreamer wrote:
Here's my take on Tesla which I'm sure you guys are all dying to hear. Tesla makes an ok car, but you are basically paying a luxury for the electric car part of it. Take this car for example, if you look at the stats it's a Ford Focus. So you have a 20k dollar car selling for 35k. That the P85 or whatever they call it . This is Mercedes E class, BMW 5 series, and Audi S5 territory in price, but it's not that level of car. Again you are paying for the electric motor while you get stiffed on things like interior quality and features. Not to mention the limited range.

This new Tesla 3 is supposed to do 200 miles. This means if I'm heading to Chicago I'll need to fill up with electricity somewhere around Joliet and no one wants to stop at Joliet for the day. Even trips to St. Louis are iffy because that's about 150 miles round trip. Maybe we do a little shopping hit up some different malls, or restaurants, then head down to the game. Do I really want to be at Bowling Green and going "jesus I hope I can make it the next 30 miles home." Again because if you run out, you are screwed. This isn't a 5 minute fill up, not that you can just fill up with electricity anywhere anyway.

The main problem of this all is that while it sounds good. Hey I'm not using gas, you are just using coal or natural gas to make that electricity.

I'm just not sold on it yet. Clearly 120k pre orders says some people are, but I'll stick with gas for now.


Like I said they are putting "supercharging" stations around the country. There are 8 already in Illinois. There's one in Aurora, Normal, Springfield, etc.

https://www.teslamotors.com/findus/list ... ted+States


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