GatewayRedbirds.com

Per the horse's mouth, err, twitter.

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Enjoying Cardinal Pixie Dust since 1982.

My hobby

Sweet.

He's seriously kicking ass right now in PB, rocking a 2.05 FIP with over a 4:1 K:BB ratio. The only problem right now is his low GB% (only 36%).

http://firstinning.com/players/Shelby-Miller-a/

Given the K rate and the BB rate, I can live w/ the GB rate. Extremely high-K pitchers like this can be not just fine, but awesome even when not getting a lot of GB. (Johan, for example, has a career GB rate just over 37%.)

I'm really really excited about this promotion. If he kills it in AA over the next four months like he has in high-A, we've got ourselves the best pitching prospect in baseball (Taillon included, with extra credit to Shelby for proximity to the majors and dominance of the first few levels) and a guy worthy of the starting rotation next April.

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www.themiddle54.com

Sure, we could see him there at the end of the year. But, once you kill it at AA, all bets are off. Give him three great months in Springfield like what he's done in PB and his phone could ring with entirely different news come September.

Most elite pitchers spend zero to very little time in AAA, and it's usually for service time purposes (Lincecum, Bumgarner, Felix) or because you're blocked (Teheran, Jeremy Hellickson) or your team is small market and super cheap (Price, Duffy, Montgomery). There are plenty of examples of top-flight prospects who never see a AAA diamond, like Kershaw, Drabek, Porcello. All the guys listed earlier could also have skipped AAA. Shelby is in that class. Any significant time at Memphis would be because he struggles, or our front office makes the mistake of not bringing him to the MLB level.

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www.themiddle54.com

I don't know. I don't think there's any doubt that he will spend the rest of the season in Springfield. If he has success there then unless you promote him to the major league rotation as a 21 year old a year out of Palm Beach, he'll spend 2012 in Memphis as the likely 6th starter (possibly 7th in Lynn is still around). I don't think you could characterize that as a mistake. Kid would just be 21 years old and still needs to work on his secondary pitches. Would he be capable of getting MLB hitters out and doing it successfully? Almost certainly. That ground ball rate is one example (and about the only example) of how he could benefit from more work.

It's hard to say what the Cards will do. Our most recent examples of young, elite pitching prospects all followed a different path and had significant AAA time -- AW and Garcia.

I get that the vast majority of elite pitching prospects don't spend much time in AAA, but for our purposes, it might come down to whether we're rebuilding without Carp and Pujols or if we're trying to win it with Carp and Pujols.

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Does he still cut his follow-through short? That always worries me. If so, get him to the big leagues in September and then trade him for a king's ransom in the offseason.

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Apples and oranges. Miller is the best SP prospect not to have touched MLB yet. Taillon is close for ceiling. Garcia and Waino were not elite talents in the minors like Miller is. Waino peaked at 18 on the BA list. Garcia at 70.

When you have a kid at this level of talent, whether he's a SP like Miller, a C like Posey, a 1B/OF like Belt, an OF like Heyward, a 3B like Pujols was, whatever, you get them up and playing when they're ready. And dominating AA--and I'm saying if Miller is DOMINATE like he has been--means typically that you're ready for MLB.

MIller = Teheran. Teheran ended his age 18 season in A. He dominated A, A+, AA in his age 19 season. Teheran was not much better than Shelby as a 19 year old in high-A. He certainly didn't have a 13.8 K/9, which is freaking out of this world. Teheran got his debut this year in a couple spot starts, and would have been a full-timer already were it not for the depth of the Braves pitching. We don't have that depth at pitching. If Miller kills AA, there is no reason for much of a stay at AAA if he sees that level at all. Miller is also 20 now, a year older than Teheran.

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www.themiddle54.com

Starting pitchers are very different creatures from position prospects. Age is a significant variable for determining appropriate workloads.

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We want information. Information.

I think that Miller will be on the MLB squad come opening day 2012, whether he gets a september callup or not I'm not sure of. But I can't see any reason he doesn't break camp next year with the big club.

Cox on the other hand will probably play at least part of next season with Memphis.

I agree with what you're saying. And we haven't had a comparable pitching prospect since Ankiel. There's not good comparison so we have no idea what the Cards will do. Expecting them to follow the same path as other orgs though is always a mistake.



I agree we don't, but will the organization see it that way? Will Duncan? If Miller is as DOMINATE as we hope and expect him to be, we could have 8 starters under contract for next season, all of them capable of being >100 era+ guys, and 4 of them capable of being #1's or #2's (Carp, AW, Garcia, Miller).

If we pick up Carp's option and keep him in the rotation (as opposed to converting him to a closer to extend his career -- a role change that I would possibly support if it came with re-negotiating his contract into an extension and lowering his AAV), AW comes back healthy, Garcia stays healthy, and Lohse/McClellan continue performing like they have, then they'll make Miller wait it out.

Personally, given the choice between Carpenter and Miller next year, I would take Carpenter. McClellan should get traded if he has a good season in the rotation. Let Lynn and Miller fight it out for 5th spot.... AW, Carp, Garcia, Lohse, Lynn/Miller.

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