Baseball America Top 30 Cardinals

[jim]

Just picked this book up this weekend, this along with Bill James are my two must have books for the season. Here are the top 30 Cardinals, along with an overall rating on the 20-80 scouting scale and their risk (low/med/high etc..). That rating is new for this year.

1. Shelby Miller RHP 70/Medium
2. Carlos MartineZ RHP 65/High
3. Oscar Taveras OF 60/High
4. Zack Cox 3B 55/Medium
5. Kolten Wong 2B 55/Medium
6. Tyrell Jenkins RHP 60/High
7. Lance Lynn RHP 50/Safe
8. Eduardo Sanchez RHP 50/Low
9. Matt Adams 1B 50/Medium
10. Jordan Swagerty RHP 50/Medium
11. Trevor Rosenthal RHP 50/Medium
12. Matt Carpenter 3B 50/Medium
13. Ryan Jackson SS 50/Medium
14. Maikel Cleto RHP 50/Medium
15. Charlie Tilson OF 50/High
16. Joe Kelly RHP 50/High
17. John Gast LHP 45/Medium
18. C.J. McElroy OF 50/High
19. Adron Chambers OF 45/Medium
20. Tony Cruz C 40/Low
21. Adan Reifer RPH 45/Medium
22. Brandon Dickson RPH 40/Low
23. David Kopp RHP 45/Medium
24. Cody Stanley C 45/High
25. Victor DeLeon RHP 50/Extreme
26. Adam Ottavino RHP 45/High
27. Boone Whiting RHP 45/High
28. Seth Blair RHP 50/Extreme
29. Lance Jeffries OF 50/Extreme
30. Sam Freeman LHP 40/Medium

BA ranked the Cardinals farm system 12th in baseball.

[phins]

Victor DeLeon is someone I'm hoping to see soon.

I must just be bat shart crazy on Anthony Garcia...wouldn't be the first time I was just crazy wrong on evaluating someone.

[ilstu24]

On a related note, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranks the Cardinals as the third best system.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=16208

Behind SD and TOR.

[go birds]

I assume the risk factor is injury risk?

Edit: I get the impression that is is not related to injury. what is the risk factor?

[go birds]

Also I'm glad to see cox checking in at 4.

Is it a forgone conclusion he will not be playing at 2b?

Disappointed to see rosenthal rated so low. I have high hopes for him.

[MrCrowesGarden]

I assume the risk factor is injury risk?

Edit: I get the impression that is is not related to injury. what is the risk factor?

I think it's like how hockey's future grades prospects. They give them a grade of 1 to 10 based on how high their potential is, and a grade of A to F on how likely it is they'll reach that full potential. So, someone with a grade of a 10.0 D has all the tools necessary to be the next Albert Pujols but has a long way to go to get there, while someone with a grade of a 7.5 A might max out as Yadier Molina, but he's all but assured to do so.

[go birds]

Makes sense. Thanks mcg.

So another question about the 20/80 rating system...

Is that a hard scale where 50 is league average? Or is a 20 above average prospect and the higher the number, the better the prospect where an 80 is almost assured superstar?

[Fat Strat]

Also I'm glad to see cox checking in at 4.

Is it a forgone conclusion he will not be playing at 2b?

Disappointed to see rosenthal rated so low. I have high hopes for him.

I would say that Cox's best position is "trade bait". Now that Freese is the biggest Cardinals postseason hero since ... ever... I just don't see them moving him anytime soon. And I'm going to go out on a very sturdy limb and suggest that Freese is easily Cox's superior in the field, so I dismiss any suggestion of moving Freese to 1b. He's Descalso's superior in the field as well, though the club doesn't know it yet.

Anyway, Rosenthal is rated pretty close to where I would have him, and BA is including several guys that most other lists have already graduated...

1. Shelby Miller RHP 70/Medium
2. Carlos MartineZ RHP 65/High
3. Oscar Taveras OF 60/High
4. Zack Cox 3B 55/Medium
5. Kolten Wong 2B 55/Medium
6. Tyrell Jenkins RHP 60/High
9. Matt Adams 1B 50/Medium
10. Jordan Swagerty RHP 50/Medium
11. Trevor Rosenthal RHP 50/Medium

If you cut out the major leaguers, then the list looks looks right. It's debatable about whether you could put him ahead of Adams or Swagerty, but since all three players received the same grade, what difference does it make? I think that Rosenthal coming in at 11 just shows how deep our system is right now. It wasn't too long ago that a guy like Rosenthal would have been in the 2-4 range. Now he could be anywhere from 8-16 depending on how much you like other guys (like Tilson or Kelly or Carpenter).

[Swirls]

Makes sense. Thanks mcg.

So another question about the 20/80 rating system...

Is that a hard scale where 50 is league average? Or is a 20 above average prospect and the higher the number, the better the prospect where an 80 is almost assured superstar?

A 50 is considered MLB league average. A 20 is abysmally terrible - think Yadier Molina's speed. An 80 is basically Hall of Fame caliber - think Mariano Rivera's cutter.

Typically on these rankings, they'll have two scouting numbers shown - their current grade on the 20-80 scale and their projected future grade on the 20-80 scale. Although now it almost looks like BA is scrapping that and going to just future grade along with a risk factor.

[phins]

The 20-80 scale is based on a normal distribution, and each number up is standard deviations from the mean with a 50 being the mean. So, a 60 is one standard deviation above the mean for that tool, and a 70 being two, etc. etc. where 96% (some say 95%) of all players fall within two standard deviations from the mean.

Harper's power is an 80, so it's in that 4% of players or better. Billy Hamilton is an 80 speed. Ichiro an 80 hit tool. You get the idea.

It's why a player who is all 50's is actually a pretty solid player, and giving a guy a 60 is honestly a solid tool. Anything more is very good.