Mo: Carp back "In May"

[Fan_In_NY]

McClellan was a career reliever. Lynn has been a starter his entire amateur and pro career. And he started for over half the season last year. Comparing him to McClellan just doesn't work. They're completely different players and they are having success for completely different reasons.

Lynn's transition is much more similar to Wainwright than McClellan. Always a starting pitcher in the minors. As he got to the high minors he no longer wow'd scouts and just looked like a mediocre back of rotation starter. Then gets moved to the bullpen on a semi-short term basis to help out the big league team and looked amazing. Then gets pushed back into the rotation and performs better than he did in the high minors. I don't know if something clicks in when they are in the big league bullpen or the scouting/game plan at the major league is so much better but it seemed to work for both of them. And going back I did not like the idea of taking Wainwright out of the pen either.

[Fat Strat]

And going back I did not like the idea of taking Wainwright out of the pen either.

Agreed with both of you about the AW comparisons.

But, I think the comparisons really stop when we get to stuff and potential. I liked the idea of taking AW out of the pen and having him start after '06. That curve just looked so dominant and his FB had enough life to make me compare him to Kile all offseason while he was prepping to return to the rotation. Turned out I was wrong. Wainwright is quite a bit better than Kile. But, they're very similar pitchers in terms of repertoire.

I'm having trouble finding someone from the recent Cards clubs to compare Lynn to. I don't think he has the ace potential that I thought AW flashed from the pen. I like him and you can't argue with his results, but he needs to show more of his other pitches. He's about 80% fastball and curve right now. I think I said the other day that scouts had him as a #4-#5. After his start and what we've seen in the pen -- he's not the same pitcher that he was when he was coming up -- I would say that he has #2-#3 potential. If he could develop a quality change or use his slider more effectively then he could be a #2.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I think Lynn's actually closer to 90% Curve and FB with 70% of that being fastball. He throws both a 4 and 2 seamer though so in reality 2 different pitches are accounting for that 70%. I don't think he'll have trouble going forward with his repertoire even if his slider doesn't develop any more.

[Fat Strat]

I think Lynn's actually closer to 90% Curve and FB with 70% of that being fastball. He throws both a 4 and 2 seamer though so in reality 2 different pitches are accounting for that 70%. I don't think he'll have trouble going forward with his repertoire even if his slider doesn't develop any more.

Did the math -- 87.6% 4-seam, 2-seam, and curve. How awesome is Fangraphs? All that data right there at our fingertips.

Going forward as a mid-rotation guy, I agree that he won't have trouble. He's there now. But, in order for him to progress into a #2 -- and no scout thought he had that potential coming into the league -- I think he needs that other pitch. The thing that give me confidence that could happen is the Card's ability to teach the cutter. An 87 mph cutter to go along with that 93 mph FB and you have Chris Carpenter.

Seriously, that's exactly what Carpenter threw in his peak years. He had tons of command that Lynn probably won't develop, but the repertoire would be very similar. So, Carpenter without the elite command and without the dominant cutter... that's a #2 starter.

[AWvsCBsteeeerike3]

I think Lynn's actually closer to 90% Curve and FB with 70% of that being fastball. He throws both a 4 and 2 seamer though so in reality 2 different pitches are accounting for that 70%. I don't think he'll have trouble going forward with his repertoire even if his slider doesn't develop any more.

Did the math -- 87.6% 4-seam, 2-seam, and curve. How awesome is Fangraphs? All that data right there at our fingertips.

Going forward as a mid-rotation guy, I agree that he won't have trouble. He's there now. But, in order for him to progress into a #2 -- and no scout thought he had that potential coming into the league -- I think he needs that other pitch. The thing that give me confidence that could happen is the Card's ability to teach the cutter. An 87 mph cutter to go along with that 93 mph FB and you have Chris Carpenter.

Seriously, that's exactly what Carpenter threw in his peak years. He had tons of command that Lynn probably won't develop, but the repertoire would be very similar. So, Carpenter without the elite command and without the dominant cutter... that's a #2 starter.

Right, fangraphs is teh awesome.

No scout saw him as a top or even middle of the rotation guy because he was throwing the 2 seam only until he hit AAA and it sat around 89-91 mph (where it still is), but once you add that 4 seamer at 95 mph then you're essentially changing the type of pitcher he is. He's able to over power people and isn't a Brad Thompson wannabe.

That's not to say he couldn't benefit from a cutter....just that I don't want to look at what scouts said 2 years ago and compare that to the pitcher he is now as he is a different pitcher....adding a 95 mph heater has a way of changing a guy

[jim]

Lynn isn't KMac, last year KMac did a terrific job but I don't think even his biggest proponents (me being one) ever doubted that he was anything more than a capable 5 starter at best, and as soon as the pixie dust wore off were ready to pull the plug. Lynn is good.

According to Bill James last year Lynn through 73% fastballs, 22 % curve, 2% slider and 3 % change. He averaged 93.2 mph on his fastball. He's maintaining that velocity this year, and that's a tick higher than when he was in the minor leagues and that really makes him legit.