I was only talking about years. You made your post about dollars, which I barely mentioned.Big Amoco Sign wrote:The market has not seen a 1B of Goldschmidt's caliber (someone as automatic as it gets for 5+ WAR) since....Desmond...no....Cabrera? So how do you know? See what Hosmer and Desmond got? The market is still signing guys like Cain and Fowler to 5/85...Goldschmidt is twice their skill, right?
Donaldson turned an injury walk year into 23 million for a year.
Then you have guys like Zimmerman and Chris Davis.
Goldy will get paid. Over 26 AAV too. I just don't know the years.
Yeah, he'll get paid. As Popeye mentioned, $25M at least. No doubt. But, lets just see where this market continues to go as far as years. You can point to Cain as one 30+ year old who got 5 years last season, but he's a totally different type of player. Goldschmidt will be about his same age. Hosmer got a lot of years, but he was 28 (maybe 28 when he signed and 27 when he started the offseason). JD Martinez, who is not a bad comp for Goldschmidt in terms of offensive value, got 5 years as a 30 year old. What would he get as a 32 year old? Santana got 3 years.
This year, consistent to great producers McCutcheon and Brantley got 2 & 3 years respectively at the same age range as Goldschmidt. Donaldson got one, and his injuries are a consideration in the length of his deal.
So, to find anything more than 1 example (Martinez) of those longer mega deals for 30 year old corner infield/outfielders, you have to go back 3 offseasons where you find nothing but disasters. What do we read from that? I don't know. Except that the market is getting increasingly unkind to 32 year old hitters in terms of both years and dollars and that will have an impact on Goldschmidt's extension. I suspect that the money will be there but the high years will not. 3 years seems likely to me. We might have to give him 4 as an incentive to get him to sign the deal before hitting the market. (We would probably be better off letting him hit the market with a handshake agreement for last chance to match or beat.)