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What would you do?
I'd sign Harper with Harper's contract terms 19%  19%  [ 5 ]
I'd sign Harper with Machado's contract terms 19%  19%  [ 5 ]
I'd sign Machado with Machado's contract terms 54%  54%  [ 14 ]
I'd sign Machado with Harper's contract terms 8%  8%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 26
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PostPosted: February 28 19, 3:44 pm 
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doe_boy wrote:
I'm tremendously old school.

I don't see the value in signing any player to a contract longer than three years.

Injuries, life events, meteors...


This makes sense...I'm scared of meteors.


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PostPosted: February 28 19, 3:48 pm 
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haltz wrote:
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But in reality I don’t like either signing right now, because I think the next CBA won’t place such an emphasis on veteran deals. If all the cost-controlled rules change (as they should), and teams have to start paying younger players more, there’s going to be less payroll space to absorb these albatross veteran deals.

If only the veterans of the MLBPA cared as much about labor as some of the members of this board do, they could drastically redistribute that 50% of revenue they get all the way down the line into the minor leagues, but essentially they'll have to skip a generation who feels like it's their turn to cash in.


I think we are seeing enough of the Moustakas/Lynn/Keuchel/Kimbrel type scenarios that may be turning the prevailing thought among vets. Unless you are elite, you are going to risk never getting that big payday. And you could make the argument that if teams have to start looking at paying a 2nd year guy $8MM vs. paying a veteran $15MM, they might be more invlined to take the vet. Compared to that being $1MM vs. $15MM today.


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PostPosted: February 28 19, 6:17 pm 
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bluesman1111 wrote:
doe_boy wrote:
I'm tremendously old school.

I don't see the value in signing any player to a contract longer than three years.

Injuries, life events, meteors...


This makes sense...I'm scared of meteors.


As well you should be.


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PostPosted: February 28 19, 6:31 pm 
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Potato-Potato Machado-Machado. I have always felt like Machado was the better long term bet when comparing the two. I don't like the length of Harper's contract; but I do like the no opt outs. I would even have signed Machado to 10 years 330 million with no opt outs; making it a hybrid of the two deals.


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PostPosted: February 28 19, 9:48 pm 
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I still don't know how to value harper. That said, from a purely fundamental standpoint, Harper is getting paid less per year and can't opt out. You get all the upside should he return to his 10 win ways. With his skills and his swing, he should be pretty damn good if not elite going forward and for at least half of that contract. Even if he can't play past the age of 35, who cares. He's going to either earn or not earn that contract in the next 7-8 years. If he's a 3 win player from now until the year 2028, even if it's a team friendly contract, I think everyone in Philly would be let down by those results.

Machado may be better defensively, and if he sticks at 3rd instead of SS, he can probably keep that up. But, his bat isn't as productive as Harper's. For that kind of money, I really want a middle of the order thumper that a lineup can be built around. Not that MAchado is a slouch, but he's not the hitter Harper is.

So, give me Harper. And give me the contract without opt outs even if it means paying him $24M/year when he's washed up a decade or so from now.

But, really, I can see any argument coming from many directions.


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PostPosted: March 1 19, 10:43 am 
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I'm not so sure I agree that Machado is so much below Harper as a thumper. I just compared their career stats side by side and they are a LOT closer than I thought with almost the same number of games played, ABs, etc. I was definitely shocked to realize that Machado only trails Harper by 9 in career home runs (184 to 175) with topping 30 each of the last four seasons. He's been so much more consistent in every category compared to Harper. Machado gets walked a bunch less but also strikes out a good deal less as well.

Then you have the defensive value. For those on here who worship at the alter of WAR, Machado was worth 5.7 WAR last year. He literally could have sat out the entire season and still have more career WAR than Harper.

To me, signing Harper is ignoring the majority of his actual career and praying that he repeats 2015 and 2017 and not 2014 and 2016. He's a heck of a player but I still stand by my belief that if he wasn't so hyped as a teenager, he wouldn't be getting a record setting deal based on his career to this point.

Anyway, I went with Machado on Machado's contract. I thought about going with Harper on Machado's contract. The real choice for me though is... Machado's contract! I would hope that he produces so much that he opts out to save me from his decline and I had an extra ring or two on my fingers when he goes. I don't want to be on the hook to pay ANYBODY for 10 years if I can help it.


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PostPosted: March 1 19, 10:48 am 
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tlombard wrote:
I'm not so sure I agree that Machado is so much below Harper as a thumper. I just compared their career stats side by side and they are a LOT closer than I thought with almost the same number of games played, ABs, etc. I was definitely shocked to realize that Machado only trails Harper by 9 in career home runs (184 to 175) with topping 30 each of the last four seasons. He's been so much more consistent in every category compared to Harper. Machado gets walked a bunch less but also strikes out a good deal less as well.

Then you have the defensive value. For those on here who worship at the alter of WAR, Machado was worth 5.7 WAR last year. He literally could have sat out the entire season and still have more career WAR than Harper.

To me, signing Harper is ignoring the majority of his actual career and praying that he repeats 2015 and 2017 and not 2014 and 2016. He's a heck of a player but I still stand by my belief that if he wasn't so hyped as a teenager, he wouldn't be getting a record setting deal based on his career to this point.

Anyway, I went with Machado on Machado's contract. I thought about going with Harper on Machado's contract. The real choice for me though is... Machado's contract! I would hope that he produces so much that he opts out to save me from his decline and I had an extra ring or two on my fingers when he goes. I don't want to be on the hook to pay ANYBODY for 10 years if I can help it.

Harper leads Machado in fWAR though. I think UZR is a little better over multiple seasons, but both stats are flawed.

I think you can't go wrong with either. Harper's batting profile is really good. Matt Carpenter level, but with Goldschmidt spray ability. So I think that's a good aging factor. Being a lefty helps with aging too, IMO. Much easier to face mostly righties in your older age. Machado's defense will slow down to where he needs to play 3B then move to 1B/LF/maybe DH if NL has it a la Hanley Ramirez eventually.


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