Our financial system is crumbling this week.
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
what the hell did Obama do now?!
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
Such a weird situation where the market is seemingly rooting for poor financial news in order to keep rates lower despite the Fed unambiguously saying they feel rates are too low and are committed to increasing them.
Markets were down 3% or so until weak inflation data came out this AM (0.1 reported v 0.2 expected) and the markets regained most of their losses.
Pretty obvious a correction is on the horizon unless external factors **cough** trade wars **cough** damper financial expectations for the future.
Also, such a huge deficit during financial prosperity is not ideal.
Markets were down 3% or so until weak inflation data came out this AM (0.1 reported v 0.2 expected) and the markets regained most of their losses.
Pretty obvious a correction is on the horizon unless external factors **cough** trade wars **cough** damper financial expectations for the future.
Also, such a huge deficit during financial prosperity is not ideal.
- Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
We're set up for a big correction IMO. I'm about 75% cash and have been since the tax changes. That debt bomb is going to go off. And the Chinese, if they feel they are trapped, just might give it a push.AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:Such a weird situation where the market is seemingly rooting for poor financial news in order to keep rates lower despite the Fed unambiguously saying they feel rates are too low and are committed to increasing them.
Markets were down 3% or so until weak inflation data came out this AM (0.1 reported v 0.2 expected) and the markets regained most of their losses.
Pretty obvious a correction is on the horizon unless external factors **cough** trade wars **cough** damper financial expectations for the future.
Also, such a huge deficit during financial prosperity is not ideal.
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".
- Popeye_Card
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
Shifting to cash probably isn’t a terrible strategy for a bit. I don’t think we’re on the cusp of an incredible rally.
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
What protects you during downturns if say the market were to go into a bear rally and the 10 year T-bond climbs to, say, 4% over the next year?Michael wrote:I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
A lot of people said the same thing during the Obama during and after Trump was elected.Popeye_Card wrote:Shifting to cash probably isn’t a terrible strategy for a bit. I don’t think we’re on the cusp of an incredible rally.
If you predict a major market downturn for long enough you'll eventually be right, but staying the course with a 3 fund portfolio will likely beat professional and amateur investors who time the market.
I'll end this by linking this post from a respected investor on BogleHeads called "A time to EVALUATE your jitters". It was written after the 2011 market downturn where the markets plunged around 10-15%. It's not really about a specific investing strategy, but assessing your ability to handle risk when you're nervous about the markets. I think it should be required reading for all investors.
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
I dodged 2008 and then have been plus but not nearly the upside others have seen since we moved to Trumpistan. But I'll take my slow and steady every day of the week. My portfolio is up today while the market is down 1% or so.Michael wrote:I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
I hear you. Ultimately it's your money and you have to sleep at night with how much risk you're comfortable with*. I was just giving a different perspective. I tend to focus on asset allocations vs market conditions. With asset allocations I can back test and focus on things I can control/understand. On the other hand, in my opinion, short term market valuations/conditions are pretty irrational so trying to figure it out is pointless and stressful.Joe Shlabotnik wrote:I dodged 2008 and then have been plus but not nearly the upside others have seen since we moved to Trumpistan. But I'll take my slow and steady every day of the week. My portfolio is up today while the market is down 1% or so.Michael wrote:I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".
*my investing style can work with conservative investors as well. Good asset allocations can actually reduce risk.
- Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: Our financial system is crumbling this week.
The other part of this is I'm 6-7 years from retirement so I don't want a lot of risk either.Michael wrote:I hear you. Ultimately it's your money and you have to sleep at night with how much risk you're comfortable with*. I was just giving a different perspective. I tend to focus on asset allocations vs market conditions. With asset allocations I can back test and focus on things I can control/understand. On the other hand, in my opinion, short term market valuations/conditions are pretty irrational so trying to figure it out is pointless and stressful.Joe Shlabotnik wrote:I dodged 2008 and then have been plus but not nearly the upside others have seen since we moved to Trumpistan. But I'll take my slow and steady every day of the week. My portfolio is up today while the market is down 1% or so.Michael wrote:I'm team "have a good financial/investing methodology in place and don't time the market".
*my investing style can work with conservative investors as well. Good asset allocations can actually reduce risk.