At this point, I think my main question is why the magic blueprint for stifling Paul Goldschmidt all of a sudden became available to every pitcher in the league this year. Maybe it's a combination of bad luck, pressing and the weight of expectations, but he's been so much worse than anyone could've imagined.1. Goldschmidt is vulnerable to off-speed pitches: He’s batting .100 (5-for-50) on changeups this season. That’s the worst in the majors. The league average against changeups is .241. Goldschmidt’s slugging percentage vs. changeups (.160) is second-worst in the bigs. The league average slugging vs. changeups is .418.
2. It isn’t just changeups, though: Goldschmidt is batting only .179 (22-for-123) on non-fastballs this season. That’s the eighth-worst in MLB. His slugging percentage (.309) on non-fastballs this season is the 12th-worst in the majors and well below the league-average .417 mark.
Goldschmidt is slugging just .107 on breaking balls down and away; that’s the 11th-worst in MLB and 175 points below league average.
3. Goldschmidt’s overall numbers vs. fastballs are down: Not brutal, but a definite decrease from his established standards. More importantly, he’s struggling against high-velocity heat. This season he has slugged .304 on pitches 94-plus mph; that’s 10th-worst in the majors and far below the league average of .467. His batting average against 94-plus-mph fastballs (.207) is 70 points below the league average.
4. Goldschmidt isn’t doing much with pitches low in the strike zone: His .179 batting average on low pitches is sixth-worst in the majors and 66 points below the league average. His slugging against low pitches (.285) is the ninth-worst in the majors and 116 points below league average … and on low non-fastballs, Goldy is batting .076, worst in MLB.
5. He’s vulnerable to inside pitches: A scout told me that the word is out, so teams have been busting him in on the fists. The facts verify that; his .301 slugging on inside pitches is 30th-worst among qualifying hitters and 145 points below the league average. His extra-base-hit percentage on inside pitches (17.4 percent) is the fourth-worst in the majors and 24 points below the league average.
Goldy didn’t record a single “Well-Hit” ball on inside fastballs during the month of June. And his line-drive rate on inside pitches last month (5 percent) was the lowest by a big-league hitter.
6. Goldschmidt has too many swings and misses on pitches he should crush: First, there’s his swing-and-miss rate (23.3 percent) on pitches in the strike zone this season, the 11th-worst mark in the majors. And then there’s his 32.8-percent swing-and-miss rate when pitchers are behind in the count (ninth-worst).
I'd love to stop posting about this, and everybody keeps saying he'll figure it out, but this is the head scratcher of all head scratchers.