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PostPosted: August 8 19, 3:58 pm 
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Not a bad run. They had Lincoln during that one dynasty, he hit great in cleanup for them there for a while. But then progressive, empathetic, caring men kinda went out of style. But it’s coming to an end.

Disproportionately white.
Disproportionately male.
Disproportionately old.
Clinging to gun rights in the face of overwhelming lack of public support.
Demanding anti-gay “religious freedom” laws in the face of overwhelming lack of public support.
Bowing to a base that demands our country go backward a century.
Deaf to the fact that reproductive rights freedom = economic freedom for women, more than half the nation.
Aggressive to non-white people at a time when the country is hitting the point where it becomes a majority minority nation.
Cowering with fear of What The Base Will Think if they disagree with a pathological liar.

Like I said, not a bad run. But it’s over. The winds of demographic change are not going to stop, no matter how many lunatics commit mass murder in Texas or Ohio. They can’t kill enough Mexicans to stop it. It’s over for them. They might hold the Senate for 2-4 more years, they might even get Trump re-elected, but their shelf life is quickly running out.


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PostPosted: August 8 19, 4:55 pm 
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I think the same thing was said when Clinton was elected and the 90s were so successful with a Democrat. And it was said again when Obama was elected.

The Republican party has done an incredible job of motivating their voter base and adjusting their primary talking points to what registers the most with their party base. I don't think the same can be said for Democrats.


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PostPosted: August 8 19, 6:46 pm 
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The GOP keeps losing people. They lost the last election by 3 million votes. They'll likely lose the next one by 6-7 million, as CA and IL and NY run up the score. With demographic changes they won't be able to gerrymander enough to win states like NC and TX and AZ in 30 years. They also are killing their brand right now with racism, guns and fundamentalism. You can't be the Flat Earth Society in the modern world, and they're the equivalent of that, to stick around.

There's no match for the Clinton era and the first 5 Obama years to what we have now.


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 8:05 am 
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Not so sure. You would think this was the case, but $$$ still plays the GOP side predominantly.

And then there is an innate belief in people -that no govt is needed. Or at least little govt. Even young people.
And immigrants turned Citizens too - a person able to cross half a continent and start a life in a foreign country, they don't see the need for a govt. They think the govt is ICE, rather than a system to protect minority rights.

I get it, I have always been independent, family values, live and let live, have a well-fashioned pair of bootstraps. Out of college , first job, living in scary ole Stl and learning to navigate the world. I was more conservative. I had the Man (govt )to blame for 1st world struggles - traffic, poor service at fast food, long lines at DMV)

The GOP owns this "conservative" brand. And a lot of people despise the liberal brand. Whether these images of libs and cons (propaganda in my view) are fair does not matter.

Listen to this interview on NPR with El Paso shooting victims brother (the one who died helping shield the baby). You will see the depth value of the conservative brand.
https://www.npr.org/2019/08/07/748972066/family-of-el-paso-victims-speaks-out

Maybe demographics will help. However many young people never lived thru US era of upward mobility that coincided with strong Unions, regulation of industry and monopoly, higher marginal tax rates etc, Pell grants, Social Security system that could be semi-relied on.

AOC-ish ideas are popular with younger people. But how much of it is the idea vs adverse reaction to Mitch Trump extremes?


Last edited by Freed Roger on August 9 19, 8:24 am, edited 4 times in total.

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PostPosted: August 9 19, 8:12 am 
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And mainstream dems will do their damndest to mess this demographic situation that favors them up. Triangulation, bad candidates etc. And once this sugared up GOP economy goes into recession, Dems may be in majority, abd the recipients of the problem. I don't trust the public to relate it back to supply side GOPers.


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 8:16 am 
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Can't wait until they start trying to split states to create a stranglehold on the Senate. New Illinois is just the start. New Oregon. Wyoming 1 & Wyoming 2. Panhandle Florida.


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 8:21 am 
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I've been waiting for demographics to end the Republican party for at least 20 years. As their party shrinks, they just keeping getting more violent and oppressive to keep power, and cranked up the propaganda to 11, and it's worked. Why would their strategy stop working all the sudden?


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:09 am 
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Freed Roger wrote:
And mainstream dems will do their damndest to mess this demographic situation that favors them up. Triangulation, bad candidates etc. And once this sugared up GOP economy goes into recession, Dems may be in majority, abd the recipients of the problem. I don't trust the public to relate it back to supply side GOPers.


I think the problem for Democrats is a lot more nuanced than that. They are a party of more people and more views, specifically because they're the party that is for doing things.

Take the ballooning student loan problem. On the conservative side it's really easy to be united. It's not the government's job to pay private debt. And the vast majority of republicans agree with that wether they be what's left of tea party movement, trump fanboys, just plain ol' conservatives, libertarians, etc.

On the Democratic side there is a wide variance between what the various candidates want to do. Some want to pay it all off ala Bernie, some want to only pay certain parts off, some want to slowly forgive debt, and some think that's not the issue to tackle.

Saying "that's not our problem" is a very easy stance to get 100% unity of a party from, saying "Here is how we will solve it" is much harder to get unity. So you have a party where, even if a candidate like Trump where a lot of people on the right weren't a fan, he's conservative enough that they'll still vote for him. Compare that to a Hillary vs Bernie where a large portion of supporters for Bernie just didn't vote or couldn't get behind Hillary.

Democrats really need strong unifying leaders to get the entire group behind an idea. It's why most Democratic leaders in our past come across as very charismatic, great speakers, and run on platforms of general positivity and improvement. I think Obama, Clinton, Kennedy, and Roosevelt all fall in that category. There are some republicans like that too, but it's way less likely that a Trump/Bush type would ever excel on the democrat side simply because they don't have the ability to unite like is needed for Democrats. As a republican you get the advantage of "I hate that guy, but at least he's not a Democrat." that the other side will never have.


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:19 am 
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I hope you're right - certainly the shifting demographics point to it. But it was just 3 years ago that everyone was sure that their disastrous 2016 presidential candidate would take the party down with him.


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PostPosted: August 9 19, 10:35 am 
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Radbird wrote:
I hope you're right - certainly the shifting demographics point to it. But it was just 3 years ago that everyone was sure that their disastrous 2016 presidential candidate would take the party down with him.


It just took a few years longer than assumed. This three years has given a lot of people who voted Trump the opportunity to realize "oh, yeah, everything he campaigned on really was what he is." All those hold-the-nose-and-vote moderates in the GOP. This [expletive] is apocalyptic, we have white supremacists walking the streets with guns looking to commit mini-genocide. The phrase "white supremacy" is used all the time and the definition has shifted. A white supremacist used to be a redneck in a pillowcase. Now it's unmasked. And we don't identify "white supremacy" as cross-burning klansmen only, we identify it as people like Tomi Lahren, Tucker Carlson and the like on Twitter and FOX News, even the president is accurately described as a white supremacist. They have brought this all out into the open and it is an ENTIRELY republican thing. "White supremacy" in the US now means the mundane everyday hate felt, believed and practiced by "normal Americans." That curtain has been pulled back, from BLM to Kaepernick to Trump to Charlottesville to Tucker to El Paso and it's not going to snap closed. The white supremacy at the core of this party, which has been there since the southern strategy in the late 60s, is now fully out in the open and it will kill this party for decades.

Here's a bellwether: Michigan. Trump won by 10K votes. Very narrow. The Dem won the Senate vote by nearly 300K and the Dem won Governor by over 400K, both winners were women. Michigan likes outsiders. Jesse Jackson won the Primary there 30 years ago. Sanders won there. Michigan went red by a hair for the first time in a long time for an outsider, then snapped right back and didn't snap back, like went back to being a five-point edge for Dems, it snapped back and then some to a 10-point advantage for Dems.


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