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 Post subject: Ozuna unlucky
PostPosted: September 8 19, 10:47 am 
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https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-s-unluckie ... rs-in-2019

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Statcast defines a hard-hit ball as 95 mph or greater off the bat. When MLB hitters reach that exit velocity threshold, they bat .541. A hard-hit ball is a hit more than half the time. Well, not for these guys.

Highest % of outs on hard contact in 2019
Of 168 hitters with 100+ hard-hit balls
1) Lorenzo Cain (MIL): 61.0%
2) Brandon Belt (SF): 57.5%
3) Alex Gordon (KC): 56.1%
4) Rougned Odor (TEX): 55.0%
5) Marcell Ozuna (STL): 54.8%


Quote:
Largest "unlucky" gaps between xwOBA and wOBA in 2019
Of 130 hitters with 450 PA
1) Justin Smoak (TOR): 43 points -- .374 xwOBA | .331 wOBA
2-T) Lorenzo Cain (MIL): 37 points -- .335 xwOBA | .298 wOBA
2-T) C.J. Cron (MIN): 37 points -- .375 xwOBA | .338 wOBA
4) Marcell Ozuna (STL): 34 points -- .382 xwOBA | .348 wOBA
5) Khris Davis (OAK): 30 points -- .312 xwOBA | .282 wOBA
MLB wOBA: .325


Quote:
Ozuna might be the most interesting. His stat sheet numbers are good by themselves. But his expected stats put him right around the top 10% of hitters. Ozuna is ripping the ball. His 91.9 mph average exit velocity is stellar, higher than nearly all MLB regulars. His 50.5% hard-hit rate is elite, ranking in the top 5. Those numbers at least bode well for the Cardinals, who are hunting a National League Central title and a postseason run.



They should really re-sign Ozuna. He could be that Holliday-type of presence in the lineup for quite a while.


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 Post subject: Re: Ozuna unlucky
PostPosted: September 8 19, 10:55 am 
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Speaking of Holliday, am i the only one who thinks he and Ozuna very much resemble each other in the field but much more so swinging the bat?


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 Post subject: Re: Ozuna unlucky
PostPosted: September 8 19, 11:26 am 
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lukethedrifter wrote:
Speaking of Holliday, am i the only one who thinks he and Ozuna very much resemble each other in the field but much more so swinging the bat?

Agreed. Big long corkscrew swing.


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 Post subject: Re: Ozuna unlucky
PostPosted: September 8 19, 11:51 am 
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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
lukethedrifter wrote:
Speaking of Holliday, am i the only one who thinks he and Ozuna very much resemble each other in the field but much more so swinging the bat?

Agreed. Big long corkscrew swing.

Seems like the opposite of what you’d teach re transfer of weight, torso rotation but clearly works for them.


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 Post subject: Re: Ozuna unlucky
PostPosted: September 8 19, 1:56 pm 
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Ozuna has a big weight transfer and long one-handed finish that you see more often with LHH (very reminiscent of Holliday), but he's relatively short to the ball. Basically doesn't wrap the bat at all when he loads.



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 Post subject: Re: Ozuna unlucky
PostPosted: September 8 19, 2:19 pm 
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Warning: i don’t know what I’m talking about.
Ozuna appears bigger and stiffer through torso than back in his Marlins days.
I guess what I see is the whole body rotation as opposed to torso rotation- which i assume is the corkscrew that Amoco refers to.
Plus now I’m seeing the one handed finish haltz refers to.


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 Post subject: Re: Ozuna unlucky
PostPosted: September 8 19, 7:10 pm 
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haltz wrote:
Ozuna has a big weight transfer and long one-handed finish that you see more often with LHH (very reminiscent of Holliday), but he's relatively short to the ball. Basically doesn't wrap the bat at all when he loads.

Yep. His follow through confuses people.


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 Post subject: Re: Ozuna unlucky
PostPosted: September 8 19, 8:15 pm 
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I love seeing how these new stats - like launch angle and velocity - interact with the sabermetric stats that I learned about a decade ago. Sometimes new stats confirm old stats and sometimes you discover that what you thought you knew was actually wrong.

So, normally, if I am going to determine if a player has been lucky or unlucky, I look at BABIP and LD%. Ozuna’s BABIP is .271, almost 50 points below his career average. His LD% is 23.3%, which is a career best. So, by my more traditional model, I would agree that Ozuna has been very unlucky.

The new stats look right to me and the old(er) stats still work. And maybe in the last month of so (counting playoffs) Ozuna will even things out.


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