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PostPosted: September 10 19, 9:12 pm 
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PostPosted: September 11 19, 8:58 am 
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InvincibleCakeEater wrote:


I think this works in her favor. If progressives go to those less who are politically tuned in and the 'economic anxiety' crowd and follow the right line of questioning, I think you can lead them to a Warren vote. Many don't trust the CEO's and Wall Street and would like to see them pay their fair share; if Warren is who they DON'T want, doesn't that mean she'd be the one who'd do it?


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PostPosted: September 11 19, 12:35 pm 
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This cuts both ways. Basically it helps pick up the people for whom "Wall Street" is a four-letter word and who have not made up their minds. But. Who are those Anti-Wall Street voters?

--The ~19% polling for Warren*
--The ~18% polling for Sanders
--The ~2% polling on #YangGang (most of his supporters are 2016 Sanders supporters per polling data)
--The small % of people who voted Sanders in 2016, got disillusioned, and tell pollsters "I don't know" or say they are not a likely voter
Like 40% let's say, with Warren already having half of them.

How many of the ~18% polling for Sanders are likely to migrate? I did, and a lot did, mostly to Warren but some to Yang, but we've already migrated. This clip is nothing new to us.

Probably a few migrated already to Biden who were Sanders last time because Hillary was unlikable or a woman or both but if they don't like strong female candidates they'll likely go back to Sanders rather than to Warren.

Probably a big share of what's left for Bernie is his base, the under-35 anti-establishment set, and I don't see this group moving them from Sanders to Warren, I think they're steadfast and as long as Sanders is in they are with him. I don't see #YangGang moving to Warren until Yang is out. I don't see anyone who was Sanders's base last time and is like "eh, not voting" this time coming back for Warren.

On the other hand, this is not great PR for the voters who are moderate Dems or are moderate independents who will vote in this Dem primary. They're not mobilized by an anti-Wall Street message, they in fact find anti-Wall Street messages more off-putting than favorable, and this kind of message might make some of them who had been considering Warren take another look at Biden or Harris or Buttigieg or Beto or Booker.

I think ultimately this is a thing in a viral world that's just kind of ephemeral and is fun for a news cycle but won't mean much.

*I'm going by the current RCP national averages on the numbers here.


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PostPosted: September 15 19, 7:45 am 
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Bit of Warren love from Bruni in the NYT op-ed pages today. Including him putting his finger on part of what has drawn me from Sanders to her over the last year personality- and temperament-wise:

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I worry lots about how Warren’s grandly liberal plans would play in a general election, but I’m impressed by her increasingly skillful navigation of the Democratic primary. Performance-wise, she’s pulling away from Sanders. He shouts and then shouts louder. She’s hardly quiet, but she has grown better and better at layering in personal anecdotes and dabs of humor, which he has never been any good at.

He still favors the word “oligarchic,” as if saying it for the zillionth time will finally make it roll off the tongue. She instead talks of “multinational corporations” and their corrupt chief executives, using more concrete images and language and doing, from a different end of the political spectrum, what Trump did with such effectiveness: identifying a class of villains on whom all of the country’s problems can be blamed.


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PostPosted: September 15 19, 8:44 am 
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Frank Bruni wrote:
Idealism puts you in play. Slipperiness gets you the prize.


What does this even mean? Is he saying Warren's "slipperiness" will get us Medicare for All?

It's strange to me why anything in that Bruni article matters. I mean, I agree that these things do matter, but that is not a good thing. In our current system, we have to weigh personality and mannerisms of candidates against their actual platform. "Warren has recently indicated she'd compromise away from Medicare for All, but she's just so damn cunning." What a system we have. This may be why Obama won though, and possibly why Hillary lost. I think I like the parliamentary system better where we'd vote for representatives, and then they'd elect the top leader in the country. Putting it directly to the people is what creates this weird dynamic where we have to weigh platforms vs personalities.

From your previous post:
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I think ultimately this is a thing in a viral world that's just kind of ephemeral and is fun for a news cycle but won't mean much.


I think this a big reason why Trump won. All the crap he does is ephemeral and disappears in a new cycle. But whether it's by design or not, his method is to dominate every news cycle. We end up talking about him every news cycle. We still forget about the stuff from the previous news cycle. This is why nothing sticks. There's always something new to be talking about.


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PostPosted: September 15 19, 8:47 am 
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Quote:
“Yeah, that’s called the Democratic primary election, Pete,” Castro responded as he quickly developed a knack for condescension and sank deeper into his hole. “That’s called an election.” True enough, but I doubt that Castro’s campaign will be making and selling T-shirts with the phrase.



Dang - something Castro said wouldn't go well on a t-shirt! What a screw up by him!!!!


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PostPosted: September 15 19, 9:17 am 
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pioneer98 wrote:
I think this a big reason why Trump won. All the crap he does is ephemeral and disappears in a new cycle. But whether it's by design or not, his method is to dominate every news cycle. We end up talking about him every news cycle. We still forget about the stuff from the previous news cycle. This is why nothing sticks. There's always something new to be talking about.

No, nothing sticks, because Republican policians don't care. Accepting this reality is important. They don't care about anything except corporate profits. Their base cares about abortion laws and guns. Republicans have an intense devotion to these issues, and anything else is simply ignored. That simple-mindedness makes their campaigning effective.


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PostPosted: September 15 19, 9:29 am 
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Slipperiness gets you the prize means that occasionally you refrain from answering a direct ? with a direct A. ie

Moderator: Senator Warren, under your plan will middle-class Americans' taxes go up to pay for healthcare?

Warren: Under my plan Americans will pay less overall for coverage.


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PostPosted: September 15 19, 9:32 am 
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pioneer98 wrote:
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“Yeah, that’s called the Democratic primary election, Pete,” Castro responded as he quickly developed a knack for condescension and sank deeper into his hole. “That’s called an election.” True enough, but I doubt that Castro’s campaign will be making and selling T-shirts with the phrase.



Dang - something Castro said wouldn't go well on a t-shirt! What a screw up by him!!!!


To borrow a phrase from literally every politician: let's be clear. That [expletive] matters. MAGA got Trump elected. Or helped in large part. There is not a billion dollar a year industry in T-shirts with catch phrases for nothing. You know the ones in every big city gift shop that say "In Dog Beers I've Only Had One." Well, genius t-shirt wearer, if you review the math on that it will tell you that you have had 1/7 of one beer. Man, you must be really toasted on that 1.71oz of MGD. Sticks, though, doesn't it?

All the ephemeral Trump stuff matters because it aggregates. It doesn't matter if some hard-core MAGA person remembers "...back where they came from" explicitly in 14 months, but that voter does remember that stuff subconsciously as it builds and builds and builds in the cavern between his ears.


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