Fair enough. We'll just have to see how it plays out. I'm sticking to my .250/.350/.475 line, though.
That, in my opinion, is a very reasonable line to expect...it's actually right in line with my own expectations. My off the cuff numbers place his mean at an OPS+ of 117 with his first standard deviation (~68% chance) at 112-122 OPS+ and his second standard deviation (~95% chance) at 105-129 OPS+. FWIW, Duncan had a .259/.354/.480/115 OPS+ line and 21 HRs in 375 ABs in his (what many would consider to be disappointing) 2007 season. If that's a disappointing season for Duncan, then what are people going to think if Glaus puts up a similar season?
For that reason, most of my cautions have been directed at those who believe that Glaus is a mortal lock for 30 HRs. Between the park factors, the significant power decline due to the shoulder surgeries, and the further power decline (and missed games) that remain a distinct possibility as long as the health of his feet remains questionable...it just seems very likely to me that Glaus will come up (perhaps well) short of many people's expectations for his production. Depending on what you think about his defense, he's probably going to be around a two to four win player...not bad, but nothing spectacular either. Definitely not a difference maker that launches this team into the realm of contention in 2008 (and probably not 2009 either).
He's not a bad return at all given the situation, but he's not what this team needed most (parts for 2009+), and he doesn't have the top end potential of Rolen (6-7 wins) that, should the stars completely align, might actually prop up this team's hopes for contending in the short-term to realistic levels or garner more significant pieces for the future. Even if Glaus is
the better bet to outperform Rolen next year (something which is obviously at least debateable given this thread), it's just not a good move given the larger circumstances of the team.
But we've talked about that ad nauseum, so I'll just let it go.
"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." -- Robert S. Wieder
I don't watch the games; I just check to see if the spreadsheets have updated.