Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

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KyCardinalFan
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by KyCardinalFan »

jim wrote:
KyCardinalFan wrote:
jim wrote:
BW23 wrote:
jim wrote:
Mary1966 wrote:
Richie Allen wrote:
BW23 wrote:
sighyoung wrote:
BW23 wrote:That darn GOP.
A palliative: http://griffinroomblog.blogspot.com/200 ... chair.html
Ah, Fred. What could have been.....
I said just yesterday that I'd give the right wing (Fox/Limbaugh.Hannity, etc...) a week before they jump on the "I told you all along it shouldn't have been McCain..."
Who will they say it should have been? Romney? None of the other Republican candidates IMO could have done better than McCain.
I agree Mary.
You don't really believe that.
Incumbant president most unpopular in the history of polling with an unpopular war and an economy in the tank. McCain was the best shot.
I think Romney would've done better in an election about the economy. However, when the candidates were selected during the primaries I'm sure most voting then thought this would be about national security and Iraq.
Mormon, right? Would they accept that?
I forgot about that, since it didn't matter to me. I guess if he'd picked Sarah as VP, it would've been ok. :wink: :P

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clement
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by clement »

KyCardinalFan wrote:So will Missouri keep it's reputation of voting for nearly every president?
I think McCain is gonna win Missouri, so I think the streak ends this year. :D

Since there is no early voting in MO, Obama should have held off those massive rallies in STL and KC until this past week. Then he would have probably taken the state.

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KyCardinalFan
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by KyCardinalFan »

UK wrote:
KyCardinalFan wrote:So will Missouri keep it's reputation of voting for nearly every president?
It'll be close, but I think MO is going red while Obama wins the election.
That's what I'm thinking.

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BW23
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by BW23 »

jim wrote:
BW23 wrote:
jim wrote:
Mary1966 wrote:
Richie Allen wrote:
BW23 wrote:
sighyoung wrote:
BW23 wrote:That darn GOP.
A palliative: http://griffinroomblog.blogspot.com/200 ... chair.html
Ah, Fred. What could have been.....
I said just yesterday that I'd give the right wing (Fox/Limbaugh.Hannity, etc...) a week before they jump on the "I told you all along it shouldn't have been McCain..."
Who will they say it should have been? Romney? None of the other Republican candidates IMO could have done better than McCain.
I agree Mary.
You don't really believe that.
Incumbant president most unpopular in the history of polling with an unpopular war and an economy in the tank. McCain was the best shot.
Okay. I misunderstood. I thought you meant, looking at what McCain has done since getting the nominee, that no other candidate could have done better. I know you really don't think that.

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UK
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by UK »

clement wrote:
KyCardinalFan wrote:So will Missouri keep it's reputation of voting for nearly every president?
I think McCain is gonna win Missouri, so I think the streak ends this year. :D

Since there is no early voting in MO, Obama should have held off those massive rallies in STL and KC until this past week. Then he would have probably taken the state.
It wouldn't have mattered IMO, it was worth trying to lock up FL, PA, and OH moreso than MO. There's a such a huge ground game difference between Obama and McCain in MO and all battleground states that it's more about ideals with the center of MO to offset campaigning in Springfield, MO.

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cpebbles
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by cpebbles »

As I said earlier, Romney wouldn't have taken such a hit from the economy falling apart, but Romney also wouldn't have been keeping the race close until a few months ago. The Republican nominee's big problem at this point is that he and George Bush both have an R after their names. McCain had the maverick shtick to fall back on, so he started out at an advantage over the other candidates.

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docellis
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by docellis »

I wonder how he'd be doing right now if he had picked anyone but Palin.

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KyCardinalFan
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by KyCardinalFan »

planet pujolsian wrote:What happens to the Obama campaign's surplus $?
I don't know, but I didn't want your question to get lost. Someone may know.

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docellis
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by docellis »

I don't know how accurate this is
It depends entirely on the candidate. Sometimes they keep the money for their next campaign. Sometimes they give it to other candidates. It doesn't generally go to the party general fund.



A lot of times candidates go into debt. For instance, in 2004 Howard Dean ended his campaign $400,000 in debt despite raising more money than anyone else ever had.

In a lot of cases like this, this debt is paid off by the nominee. Hillary Clinton did this for Tom Vilsack when he dropped out earlier this year.

John Kerry on the other hand, got into trouble for having millions of dollars left over in his bank account after 2004. It will be interesting to see what Ron Paul does with all the money he has raised online if he is unable to win the republican primary contest.

I suspect if that is the case, his supporters will call for an independent run at the White House.


http://ask.metafilter.com/80372/What-ha ... paign-ends

BenNX74205
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Re: Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin

Post by BenNX74205 »

PujolJunkie wrote:
BenNX74205 wrote:
PujolJunkie wrote:
BenNX74205 wrote:
PujolJunkie wrote:A Hayes Research poll just came out giving McCain just a 3 point lead in Alaska. Definitely an outlier, but funny to look at none the less.

EDIT: by the way, the supposed Pennsylvania tightening? It tightened to a 6 or 7 point Obama lead. Moderate Republicans came home to roost for McCain and he gained independents. It's still bluer than the nation by 3 or 4%.
Obama will not win Pennsylvania by 6 points. Put it on the board.
I wouldn't be so positive of that.

It was 5% bluer than the rest of the Nation when Kerry won it. 6 isn't a stretch.
I don't know about "percentage bluer" or "bluer than the nation." I don't really know what that means, and I didn't know it counted in an election.

What I do know is that Gore won PA by 3.5% in 2000 and Kerry won PA by 2.5%. Pennsylvania is trending red, and the Democratic Voting Machine isn't geared up for this election.

What is so different between Ohio and Pennsylvania that OH is dead even and PA is a big Obama win? I'm telling you guys, these polls don't look like they're adding up to me. Yeah I could be wrong, and it's not like I'm pulling for McCain here. But I think a lot of people are going to be surprised how close this election is going to be.
I've already outlined the fact that Real Clear Politics' averages were completely, around 95%, spot on in 2004. It got 2 states wrong. One that was never polled, Hawaii, and Wisconsin. Two. Go look now. It's gonna end up that way or very close. Obama 300> EV and McCain will lose Pennsylvania. It's just not gonna happen.

If it was within the MoE%, you'd have a point. But PA is a 4 to 8 point win for Obama.
You can put your faith in polls generated by companies looking to earn a buck. Put your faith in polls with metrics having a 7-8 point lead in democrats just showing up at the polls, when history suggests that the spread has never been more than 4, and often ends up just about even for presidential elections. I'll look at more than the polls, considering the only one that matters is tomorrow.

Maybe the polls will be right. Personally, I have a hard time believing Obama will win by 200 EVs. We'll see tomorrow night. Obama is not Jed Bartlet. The real world is not "The West Wing." Democratic presidential candidates don't win this type of victory, and the ones that do have extenuating circumstances on their side, or run a campaign atypical of the "standard liberal democrat."

I've given my reasons why the polls may not be right this time around. Look at history. Look at where the candidates are gearing up right before the election. But all I hear in response is "you're wrong the polls are always right." I think the pollsters are polling the America they want to see this time around, and their results are reinforcing their own beliefs. What is Obama doing visiting Iowa? What is McCain doing in Maine? If you go by the polls, they're both campaigning in states that are long since won by Obama. That doesn't make any sense. What McCain and Obama are doing does not line up with the polling data. Either both campaigns are run by complete idiots, or the polling data is wrong.

I await another set of pretty graphs and charts.

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