haltz wrote: ↑August 7 22, 6:13 pm
phins wrote: ↑August 7 22, 5:56 pm
I went into the weekend dreading this series, but the boys made it so much fun. It seems like the Cardinals have the magic for how to fine tune things and get going after the ASB. It’s not 100% every season, but it sure seems like most of them.
Almost 50% to win the division now in my numbers, which maybe need a “Brewers are sad” adjustment put in.
BRef has them at 82% and that's before today's win.
Have you seen anything on how the new playoff format changes the playoffs are a craphoot idea? Yankees and Dodgers are 50% to win vs the field, which seems high, but skipping coinflip games is a huge deal in terms of probability obviously.
B-Ref uses something called Simple Rating System, which just uses runs scored and runs allowed as their inputs and projects based on that. It doesn't really look at how the runs were scored, if they are playing at "true talent level" etc. and therefore projects it to continue the way it has. I use BaseRuns to look at the events that have happened while regressing players to try and get their true talent level.
My ratings simply see the Brewers as a better team because they love their starting pitching and think they should have a better run differential than they do. As time goes along, "better" or not, they're going to need to play to that level to actually win the thing and the Cardinals are hot and have zoomed past them.
82% is crazy high to me. Baseball games are such coin flips. For instance, the Cardinals have been even a 70% favorite to win a game one single time this year (against Baltimore, and they won). To be even a 60% favorite in a major league game is a huge favorite.
Let's hope B-Ref has it right.