8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Discuss all things Cardinals Baseball
User avatar
haltz
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 22017
Joined: November 9 06, 6:45 am
Location: a proud midwestern metropolis

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by haltz »

phins wrote:
August 7 22, 5:56 pm
I went into the weekend dreading this series, but the boys made it so much fun. It seems like the Cardinals have the magic for how to fine tune things and get going after the ASB. It’s not 100% every season, but it sure seems like most of them.

Almost 50% to win the division now in my numbers, which maybe need a “Brewers are sad” adjustment put in.
BRef has them at 82% and that's before today's win.

Have you seen anything on how the new playoff format changes the playoffs are a craphoot idea? Yankees and Dodgers are 50% to win vs the field, which seems high, but skipping coinflip games is a huge deal in terms of probability obviously.

Tags:

User avatar
heyzeus
Everday Unicorn
Posts: 41333
Joined: April 21 06, 10:14 am
Location: Austin, TX
Contact:

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by heyzeus »

When this season is over brewers ownership is going to have to answer for that Hader trade.

Online
User avatar
ghostrunner
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 28725
Joined: April 18 06, 9:40 pm

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by ghostrunner »

Anyone ask Marmol about Stratton? Leaving him in 3 batters too long was the one inexplicable move imo.

Online
User avatar
ghostrunner
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 28725
Joined: April 18 06, 9:40 pm

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by ghostrunner »

Apparently this is out of date. Yankees and Indians went 4:50 in 2020
ghostrunner wrote:
August 7 22, 5:53 pm
4 hours and 25 minutes officially. We got close, if this is correct:
Longest baseball game ever – 9 innings
New York Yankees 14, Boston Red Sox 11 on Aug. 18, 2006 – 4 hours, 45 minutes
Arizona Diamondbacks 10, Colorado Rockies 9 on June 24, 2016 – 4 hours, 30 minutes

CT Defector
Perennial All-Star
Posts: 4884
Joined: June 15 06, 8:38 am

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by CT Defector »

I didn’t get to watch the last couple of games. I have to say going into this series, I was just hoping we didn’t get swept, I never imagined we would do the sweeping. Let’s go on a tear.

phins
Sobbing quietly during Fox programming
Posts: 10246
Joined: June 9 06, 3:51 pm

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by phins »

haltz wrote:
August 7 22, 6:13 pm
phins wrote:
August 7 22, 5:56 pm
I went into the weekend dreading this series, but the boys made it so much fun. It seems like the Cardinals have the magic for how to fine tune things and get going after the ASB. It’s not 100% every season, but it sure seems like most of them.

Almost 50% to win the division now in my numbers, which maybe need a “Brewers are sad” adjustment put in.
BRef has them at 82% and that's before today's win.

Have you seen anything on how the new playoff format changes the playoffs are a craphoot idea? Yankees and Dodgers are 50% to win vs the field, which seems high, but skipping coinflip games is a huge deal in terms of probability obviously.
B-Ref uses something called Simple Rating System, which just uses runs scored and runs allowed as their inputs and projects based on that. It doesn't really look at how the runs were scored, if they are playing at "true talent level" etc. and therefore projects it to continue the way it has. I use BaseRuns to look at the events that have happened while regressing players to try and get their true talent level.

My ratings simply see the Brewers as a better team because they love their starting pitching and think they should have a better run differential than they do. As time goes along, "better" or not, they're going to need to play to that level to actually win the thing and the Cardinals are hot and have zoomed past them.

82% is crazy high to me. Baseball games are such coin flips. For instance, the Cardinals have been even a 70% favorite to win a game one single time this year (against Baltimore, and they won). To be even a 60% favorite in a major league game is a huge favorite.

Let's hope B-Ref has it right. :D

User avatar
haltz
Hall Of Famer
Posts: 22017
Joined: November 9 06, 6:45 am
Location: a proud midwestern metropolis

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by haltz »

phins wrote:
August 7 22, 7:27 pm
B-Ref uses something called Simple Rating System, which just uses runs scored and runs allowed as their inputs and projects based on that. It doesn't really look at how the runs were scored, if they are playing at "true talent level" etc. and therefore projects it to continue the way it has. I use BaseRuns to look at the events that have happened while regressing players to try and get their true talent level.
BRef does regress FWIW.

I wasn't really disagreeing, you're more in line with FG which puts them at 60/40 to win the division.
82% is crazy high to me. Baseball games are such coin flips. For instance, the Cardinals have been even a 70% favorite to win a game one single time this year (against Baltimore, and they won). To be even a 60% favorite in a major league game is a huge favorite.
Right. My real question is that if 82% is high, 2-3% to win the World Series (91% to make the postseason) seems awfully low. Fangraphs has more of a spread with the likely teams clinching a bye at around 16% to win the WS.

User avatar
Jocephus
99% conan clips
Posts: 63642
Joined: April 18 06, 5:14 pm

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by Jocephus »


User avatar
DeadMoney
Veteran Player
Posts: 548
Joined: December 11 17, 10:52 am

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by DeadMoney »

What a week! That was fun.

Online
User avatar
Radbird
There's someone in my head but it's not me
Posts: 57428
Joined: April 18 06, 5:08 pm
Location: LF Bleachers @ Busch II

Re: 8/7 GDT: Yankees(Montas) vs Cardinals(Wainwright) 1:15 CT

Post by Radbird »


Post Reply