Mikolas extended

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dmarx114
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by dmarx114 »

MinorLeagueGuy wrote:
March 24 23, 1:04 pm
I dont think they moved on; but Miles was probably the easier of the camps to get something done quickly. Even if they did extend Monty, they still dont have anybody beyond him signed for next year. Now they have 2 guys, rather than one. In a vacuum, you can sign the guy that wants to be here, and also continue to talk with the guy who's yet to pitch a whole season for the best franchise in baseball. I hope Jordan pitches his tail off, becomes a CY finalist, and forces the Cards to pay him $100 million dollars.
No doubt about it. Mikolas is 4 years older and wasn't going to get the same money or years as Montgomery.

phins
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by phins »

Mikolas’ contract structure is another clear indication to me that DeWitt is going to reduce payroll next year, as he expects lower revenues.

I understand time value of money and how teams normally want dollars paid later, but I hold onto the quotes from DeWitt about how they’re bracing for lower revenues next year with Bally dropping, but expect the payments this year.

Giving Mikolas the salary increase this year and dropping things next year and year after play right into that.

DeWitt runs this club like a business.

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AdmiralKird
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by AdmiralKird »

Montgomery's value has gone way up since he was traded. He hadn't even pitched a complete game in the majors yet. If he signs now he'll have to sign at his Yankee's level and potentially lose tens of millions. Him wanting to wait when the Cardinals will only offer his Yankee's valuation is not really that surprising. His stupid comment about it being "out of his control" is surprising from a facepalm perspective. Just say you don't really want to sign now because you're still discovering your ceiling as a pitcher and hope to improve even further on last year with the Cardinals and then sign once you know where you're at.

As far as Mikolas is concerned, you pretty much know what you're getting from both the player and team perspective, which makes a contract easy. The Cardinals and his agent would have had a pretty straightforward grasp of what he was worth for various term contracts and all Mikolas had to do was pick the number of years he wanted. He chose the one with the highest potential dollar value. And his negotiations are probably not painful like others so revisiting the process in two years is not that big of a deal.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by CardsofSTL »

I like Mikolas. Hope he stays healthy.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Second worst starter in baseball using xERA. Bottom 8 using FIP.

How long is his leash before he's IL'd for a fake injury? There's a very real possibility that he's who Wainwright replaces, if Liberatore comes up to replace Woodford.

If it's still this way after one or two more starts, he has to be removed from the roster for a bit, right?

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a_smith
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by a_smith »

I could see that. But if the narrative is that he was [expletive] up by the wbc and they view the first few starts as essentially spring training, then they could see him coming around in the last two starts.

I could also see them rolling 6 starters for a week or two if woodford goes down and liberatire and wainwright come up
But, barf, that extension is not looking good right now.

dmarx114
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by dmarx114 »

Mikolas has been fine the last 2 starts. Nothing to brag about, but certainly not alarming. The first 3 were a combination of unlucky and bad.

He's not going anywhere anytime soon. And he shouldn't.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

dmarx114 wrote:
April 24 23, 1:53 pm
Mikolas has been fine the last 2 starts. Nothing to brag about, but certainly not alarming. The first 3 were a combination of unlucky and bad.

He's not going anywhere anytime soon. And he shouldn't.
Neither thing is true. xERA cuts through luck. He's been bad in the last two starts as well. (5.32 FIP)

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Radbird
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by Radbird »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
April 24 23, 12:54 pm
Second worst starter in baseball using xERA. Bottom 8 using FIP.

How long is his leash before he's IL'd for a fake injury? There's a very real possibility that he's who Wainwright replaces, if Liberatore comes up to replace Woodford.

If it's still this way after one or two more starts, he has to be removed from the roster for a bit, right?
What’s the difference between xERA and FIP? They sound very similar based on their descriptions.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mikolas extended

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Radbird wrote:
April 24 23, 2:49 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
April 24 23, 12:54 pm
Second worst starter in baseball using xERA. Bottom 8 using FIP.

How long is his leash before he's IL'd for a fake injury? There's a very real possibility that he's who Wainwright replaces, if Liberatore comes up to replace Woodford.

If it's still this way after one or two more starts, he has to be removed from the roster for a bit, right?
What’s the difference between xERA and FIP? They sound very similar based on their descriptions.
xERA uses entire batted ball history (along with EV/LA quality of contact factors) and park data using Statcast, along with K/BB, to determine the expected ERA of a pitcher. Basically the truest ERA possible, IMO. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-era

FIP is just ERA approximation using fielding independent factors of K, BB, and HR allowed. (all items pitchers control that is independent of fielding). FIP formula = (13*HR+3*(HBP+BB)-2*K)/IP

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