Steve Adams' NL Central comments

[mikechamp]

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' writer Steve Adams that occurred on February 4. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.)

Not too many questions this week, but I included 1 bonus Q&As about meeting players in real life. Enjoy the read!

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://live.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with ... 20250.html
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Did the Reds improve enough to win 90 games?

Steve Adams
Will the Reds (77 wins in 2024) win 90+ games in 2025?

Yes (18.8% | 243 votes)

No (81.2% | 1,049 votes)

Total Votes: 1,292
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Cassie and Wicks/Assad and what else for Cease?

Steve Adams
I think Caissie and one of those two is a good offer, or at least the foundation for one. Anything from that point on I think you're looking low-level lotto tickets or 40-FV type of depth pieces from the lower portion of a team's ranked prospects.
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The Reds poll is interesting but do YOU feel the PECOTA projection for the Reds to finish last with 74 wins is accurate?

Steve Adams
It's based on a statistical algorithm that weights for things like presumptive regression from last year's best performers, durability that a lot of fans don't take into account, strength of depth players, etc.

Fans get bent out of shape about individual PECTOA and Steamer projections and the like every year. I think most fans -- and this isn't an affront or insult to you or anyone else -- just don't take the time to read or understand what PECOTA and like projection systems really are or what they're trying to accomplish.
"Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not “pick” a team to “win” any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations."
~From B-Pro's PECOTA projection explanation
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Do the Angels have any chance at Sonny Gray?

Steve Adams
He reportedly told the Cards early in the offseason he wasn't interested in waiving his no-trade clause, and he chose to sign in St. Louis in part due to the geographic preference of being closer to his Tennessee residence, so I don't think Anaheim would be on the table even if he were open to a trade.
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If Arenado gets to spring training, he’s sticking around at least until the deadline right?

Steve Adams
I don't think it's that black-and-white. A team could lose its starting 3B to an ACL tear on March 10 or something and call up the Cards with new/renewed interest in working something out.
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Is a Suwinski/Cook RF platoon the plan or will the Pirates go and get someone?

Steve Adams
Still think they'll bring someone in, but as I said, I don't expect a super exciting move. Alex Verdugo type.
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____ should be the Brewers opening day Closer. Will that person be traded by the trade deadline or next offseason?

Steve Adams
Trevor Megill, and no, he's controlled through 2027. Megill is really good.
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What do the Cards do with the plethora of catching prospects they have, could a big trade be on the horizon? Possibly next offseason when Bloom takes over?

Steve Adams
See how Ivan Herrera handles the full-time gig this season and if they're not satisfied with the defense, gauge trade interest? I'm not convinced they see Herrera as the long-term fit. They like Jimmy Crooks a lot, too. We'll see how it plays out though. Maybe Herrera makes some good strides defensively. I think he'll hit.
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If the Cubs disappoint again, would Counsell's seat start to get a little toasty? They brought him in to get a ring.

Steve Adams
Two years into a five-year contract that pays him more than any other manager? Nope.
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Have you ever met any MLB players in real life?

Steve Adams
Sure. Several pop up at the Winter Meetings every year, and I've interviewed my share as well over time. Met Kevin Pillar for a bit this past December. He was super nice and super complimentary of MLBTR. Always love when a player is like "Everyone in the whole clubhouse is on your site, man" haha.
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