DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

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Transmogrified Tiger
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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

Post by Transmogrified Tiger »

haltz wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Only partially related to DeJong, but the idea that Matt Chapman saved 34 runs relative to average is absurd on its face. Just to use Inside Edge's stuff as a quick approximation, Chapman had 117 chances that were not classified as 'routine' (he missed 5 routine chances), and of those 117 he didn't make the play in 50 of them. Add in that in almost every case you likely need to make multiple plays above average to save a full run and it becomes physically impossible to accrue that type of value defensively.
Except that they are including throwing to go along with the added range. Is it really hard to consider that between his arm and range, Chapman saved 34 runs by making 67 non-routine plays? It's plausible. They're also including shift plays now, too, which wasn't included before (see the link in the Tweet).
Yes, it's extremely implausible! I understand that arm is underrepresented in my simplistic example, but not substantially so since third basemen aren't taking a bunch of relay throws, nor are they involved in close tag plays with any regularity. It could make sense if the average defender made 0 of those non-routine plays, but they make a substantial number of them. Kris Bryant was a -1 UZR defender this year and made 31 of the 74 non-routine plays he had at 3B.
Every time he makes a play that gets made only 20% of the time on a ball that would be a double (1.02 runs) down the line, he gets credit for .8 runs. They aren't all worth that, but that adds up over the course of 36 extra plays.

One thing that might be missing here are the routine plays and how hard Bryant gets dinged for those that he missed. He missed 11 plays that were made 96% of the time, if they are worth on average .85 runs (just splitting the lwts difference between singles and doubles), that's .96 x .85 x 11 = -9 runs there as well. If he'd had as many routine chances as Chapman (358) and maintained the same average it'd be more like -14, where Chapman is only -4 runs on his five missed opportunities. Chapman gets some value over average being 98.6% on hundreds of routine plays if they are on average 96% plays.

If we take take Bryant's conversion rate of routine v. non-routine(simplifying for sanity's sake) and apply it to Chapman's chances, you have Chapman with 13 more routine and 18 more non-routine plays(10 of which are in the 60-90% 'Likely' band). There's just no reasonable way that gets close to 34 runs without valuing runs in a very different way than we do for hitting or pitching.

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33anda3rd
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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

Post by 33anda3rd »

beehut wrote:I think I'd brought this up in a Pujols DRS post (since he'd range well beyond where he should sometimes), but is there any correction for great plays that a 3B or 1B makes that would've otherwise been routine for the SS or 2B backing them up?
RZR on Fangraphs is a decent indicator of that, I think. haltz or TT if you know something I don't re the FG fielding metrics please correct me.

RZR = Plays/Balls in Zone. Chapman's was 4th among qualified 3B, behind Arenado, Rendon and Seagar, all of whom are considered less valuable than Chapman defensively in FG overall math.

Arenado not only was way higher in the % of balls in his zone he made plays on, 78% to 72.8%, he also made more out of zone plays, 62 to 57, committed the same number of errors (9) and started far more double plays than Chapman, 36 to 22. I kinda feel like when you have a player who gobbles up more balls in his zone, gets to more balls outside his zone, does a better job starting the ol' 5-4-3, and makes no more errors, then you've got yourself a better defensive player.

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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

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33anda3rd wrote: Arenado not only was way higher in the % of balls in his zone he made plays on, 78% to 72.8%, he also made more out of zone plays, 62 to 57, committed the same number of errors (9) and started far more double plays than Chapman, 36 to 22. I kinda feel like when you have a player who gobbles up more balls in his zone, gets to more balls outside his zone, does a better job starting the ol' 5-4-3, and makes no more errors, then you've got yourself a better defensive player.
Coors inflated numbers.

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haltz
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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

Post by haltz »

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:If we take take Bryant's conversion rate of routine v. non-routine(simplifying for sanity's sake) and apply it to Chapman's chances, you have Chapman with 13 more routine and 18 more non-routine plays(10 of which are in the 60-90% 'Likely' band). There's just no reasonable way that gets close to 34 runs without valuing runs in a very different way than we do for hitting or pitching.
No, it does get close. Let's say it's a play that gets made 74% of the time (league average for that 60-90 band) and my made-up linear weights value of .85 a ball hit in the 3rd base zone is somewhat acccurate. If Chapman makes that play and Bryant does not, it's a swing of .85 runs. It's a plus/minus system where Chapman gets credited +.22 runs (1*.26*.85) for making the play and Bryant gets debited -.63 runs. So there is .85 runs on the line for every ball hit. This goes for every play at 3B regardless of the degree of difficulty - it's almost a full run swing between making it or missing it. So you're looking at 26 runs or so of value in that 31 plays.

That .85 runs is the halfway point between the linear weights value of a single (.70) and a double (1.02) which are the same values they're given in wOBA or whatever other advanced offensive metric. Maybe that's a little high for the average ball a 3B fields. I don't know. If it's .79 then it's 24 runs.

I quickly skimmed that article, but my understanding is that shift plays weren't counted either for or against so another 9 runs or so between that and arm doesn't seem too wild. I'm skeptical of it though nonetheless, especially from a talent or projection standpoint.

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haltz
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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

Post by haltz »

Breaking it down into the difficulty buckets here's what I came up with for Chapman and Arenado with the credit and debit for each play made or not made. What I've come up with is almost exactly 10 runs higher for each over their actual DRS numbers. My guess is an inflated data set due to foul popups, IFF and shifted plays included in those Inside Edge numbers and not the BIS data.

Also apparently .85 is definitely too high. The baseline is .76 but I don't feel like doing the math again and that would account for just a few runs anyway. Also in DRS, 3B get some value above that number for extra bases saved in enhanced plus/minus and Chapman is +17 going to his right (Arenado is +4 and Bryant is -3).

Code: Select all

              Chapman       Chapman Runs      Arenado      Arenado Runs
Routine 96%   353/358         +12 / -4        348/358       +12 / -8
Likely 74%     34/39         +7.5 / -3         31/35         +6 / -2.5
Even 49%       16/19           +7 / -1         15/20       +6.5 / -2
Unlikely 24%   14/19           +9 / -1         10/18       +6.5 / -5
Remote 3%       3/22         +2.5 / -0.5        6/37         +5 / -1
Total                          +28.5                         +17.5

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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

Post by Jocephus »

Tom: What happened to Paul DeJong offensively?


Ben Clemens: He’s getting unlucky this year (.219 BABIP could tell you that, and he’s hitting a bunch of barrels for someone batting .189/.288/.377)
Ben Clemens: But mostly, this is kind of who he is as a hitter. Average underlying skills which means that he’s prone to cold stretches. Over his last 1200 or so PA he’s running a 94 wRC+ with a .260 BABIP. If you told me his true offensive talent was a 100 WRC+ I would believe you
Ben Clemens: That’s a fine hitter, but I think his first season (and his improved walk rate since then) makes people want more out of him
Ben Clemens: I don’ think he’s this bad but I don’t think he’s a plus hitter by any means

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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

Post by GeddyWrox »

Jocephus wrote:
August 9 21, 1:44 pm
Tom: What happened to Paul DeJong offensively?


Ben Clemens: He’s getting unlucky this year (.219 BABIP could tell you that, and he’s hitting a bunch of barrels for someone batting .189/.288/.377)
Ben Clemens: But mostly, this is kind of who he is as a hitter. Average underlying skills which means that he’s prone to cold stretches. Over his last 1200 or so PA he’s running a 94 wRC+ with a .260 BABIP. If you told me his true offensive talent was a 100 WRC+ I would believe you
Ben Clemens: That’s a fine hitter, but I think his first season (and his improved walk rate since then) makes people want more out of him
Ben Clemens: I don’ think he’s this bad but I don’t think he’s a plus hitter by any means
So, basically the black hole of Matt Carpenter's Salsa is keeping him from achieving mediocrity???

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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

Post by Spider John »

mikechamp wrote:
March 5 18, 10:25 am
Ok, I'll ask: Why so soon? Couldn't this have waited 1 year to get a little better sample size at the MLB level?
QFT

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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

Post by CardsofSTL »

AussieKurt wrote:
April 22 18, 2:57 pm
Should I get a DeJong jersey?
Yes.


And Happy birthday @AussieKurt

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Re: DeJong - extended 6yrs/$26M

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