Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

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Fat Strat
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Re: Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

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pioneer98 wrote:I understand why babip maybcrater but not sure why line drive % necessarily would tank.
For the same reason that a guy with normal 15-20 HR power won't hit 40 HR's if he has a 8 HR's in one month. Outliers tend to return to the norm over time and Fowler's LD rate is an outlier based upon his career and league history. A 20 HR guy might maybe be able to hit 40 HR's in a magical season. It has happened. Fowler might maybe be able to have a 34 LD% in a magical season. It could happen. But, you can't expect it. Especially when the starting point is a small sample size. We should expect his LD% to drop and drop significantly. But, if he's still at 34% in July, then you can start to believe.

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

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I keep thinking of Hunter Pence as a comp for JMart. Is that a fair assessment? He looked like a disaster in the field to my untrained eye. How did they get him to play serviceable D? Is that something you can coach? Bring in that coach who got Pence to where he was a + player overall. LOL

Fat Strat
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Re: Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

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GeddyWrox wrote:I keep thinking of Hunter Pence as a comp for JMart. Is that a fair assessment? He looked like a disaster in the field to my untrained eye. How did they get him to play serviceable D? Is that something you can coach? Bring in that coach who got Pence to where he was a + player overall. LOL
My initial reaction (pre-stats) to this is that Hunter is a bad comp for Martinez. If I remember right, Pence arrive as and started out as a CF'er. While he was awkward -- I know what you're talking about from an eye perspective -- I think his speed in the OF more than made up for his very obvious weirdness. So, that's my "untrained eye" take. Let's check the stats...

Yeah, basically, for the first 5-6 years of his career, Pence was an excellent defender in RF. He did come up as a CF'er, but only lasted there one short rookie season. He drops below average in his 30's, but overall for his career Pence is +8 as a RF'er in DRS and +17.3 in UZR in RF. Pence follows the typical pattern... good defender in his 20's. Bad defender in his 30's.

Jose Martinez was a bad defender in his 20's. He's 30 now... so... I just don't have any hope that he can improve even to acceptable. This (not his bat) is why he didn't make an MLB roster until age 28'ish.
Last edited by Fat Strat on May 15 19, 8:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

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GeddyWrox
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Re: Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

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Ah, jeez. Then there is no hope for JMart. Ugh.

Fat Strat
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Re: Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

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GeddyWrox wrote:Ah, jeez. Then there is no hope for JMart. Ugh.
Yeah, that's pretty much where I am. I love Jose Martinez though. He's hilarious. I can tolerate the DH in the NL just because we'll get to keep him in the lineup.

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Re: Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

Post by Fat Strat »

Good article on VEB fleshing this whole conversation out a little more.

https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2019/5/23/ ... d-outfield

They reach a comparable conclusion to the one that I've been presenting about Martinez and his playing time.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Fowler has more WAR than Ozuna does, which is insane to me.

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Re: Fowler & Martinez: BABIP and Defense

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Big Amoco Sign wrote:Fowler has more WAR than Ozuna does, which is insane to me.
Ozuna is essentially replicating his incredible 2017 season except his BABIP is over 100 points lower. That's not going to last.

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