Matt Carpenter update

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haltz
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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by haltz »

ShildtForBrains wrote:as opposed to the concept of depending on the lead off batter to get on base... i.e. - hits and walks
are you saying that pitch selection and working the count are in opposition to getting on base?

He still does that very well. His OBP is close to league average despite hitting .212.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

As bad as Carpenter's been this year, and it's been bad, he's still a better than Edman.

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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by Fat Strat »

Posting this is like some sort of personally-induced torture. But, one full calendar year for Matt Carpenter:

2018: .202/.332/.371/.703, 89 wRC+
2019: .212/.315/.364/.680, 82 wRC+

You can do the math to add those together.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Fat Strat wrote:Posting this is like some sort of personally-induced torture. But, one full calendar year for Matt Carpenter:

2018: .202/.332/.371/.703, 89 wRC+
2019: .212/.315/.364/.680, 82 wRC+

You can do the math to add those together.
Lost in this is how he was even worse at the beginning of 2018 before his crazy surge. Is a breakout looming or was that one last hurrah and his decline in full swing now?

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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by Fat Strat »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:Posting this is like some sort of personally-induced torture. But, one full calendar year for Matt Carpenter:

2018: .202/.332/.371/.703, 89 wRC+
2019: .212/.315/.364/.680, 82 wRC+

You can do the math to add those together.
Lost in this is how he was even worse at the beginning of 2018 before his crazy surge. Is a breakout looming or was that one last hurrah and his decline in full swing now?
I have been holding out on Carpenter because his LD% has remained high while his BABIP has plummeted. That has now remained consistent through the calendar year. Much higher LD% than his BABIP would indicate. That usually implies some bad luck. But, the last 12 months actually look very similar to his entire 2017 season - lower BABIP with a good LD%, but now he is missing the ridiculous BB rate (17% to ) and has experienced a power drop (.209 ISO to .152).

So, if I told you that a player experienced a noticeable but not extreme drop in BB% and power between his age 31 and age 33 seasons, despite maintaining a consistent (though low) BABIP and LD% what is the logical conclusion we would draw? Age-related decline. Obvious. Just perfectly fits the expected trend.

You have to throw out part of his age 32 season to get there, though, which is why this was a hard case. But it is not unusual at all for an elite player to flash elite production for a month or more even in the midst of progressive decline. So, while it looks to the casual fan like Carpenter has experienced fall-off-the-cliff decline, it’s actually much easier to explain Carpenter’s downturn in a three-year phase starting in 2017 and continuing through now, with 3 hot months in the middle of 18 not-so-hot.

Edit: back to my initial point... High BABIP players, and Marp qualifies, tend to exhibit a decrease in BABIp as they age, despite consistencies in their LD%. Some of this is anecdotal - as in, I have noticed it but don’t have real data to point to off hand, maybe looking at David Freese as an example might shed light in the situation. Freese and Marp are somewhat similar in their high BABIP, line-drive approach. Freese’s decline has been less noticeable, but he has also been less exposed in his roles and is not as subject to shifting. We can’t discount the shift as a significant part of this.

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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by Fat Strat »

And just to answer the question the question more directly - is a breakout looming? It is likely that Carpenter will have some hot spells every now and then. That elite ability is still there, just not as accessible as it used to be. So a good month here or there is likely. But, overall, down is the direction he is moving and will move. The ups won’t be as high. The downs will be lower. And timing those out for, say, a late season postseason push, is a fool’s errand.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

What's funny is that he's not even bad against the shift in the past calendar year (according to Fangraphs) so that's not even eating at his production that much.

107 wRC+ against non-traditional shift the past year.

Everything in play around the infield is getting fielded. Lots of shallow fly balls too. His inability to hit home runs and hit the ball far is the biggest concern.

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wart57
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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by wart57 »

I think the shift is in his head...along with the decline phase of his career.

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BottenFieldofDreams
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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by BottenFieldofDreams »

Time to give him to a nice farm family.

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Re: Matt Carpenter update

Post by cardsfantx »

thought this was interesting...
Carpenter crushed high-velocity fastballs in 2019, slugging .633 on pitches clocked at 94 mph or greater. That ranked an impressive 20th among all MLB hitters. And his OPS on 94+ pitches, 1.047, ranked 17th.

Carpenter’s bat speed wasn’t the problem. His weakness was pitch recognition. (The same is true of many Cardinals’ hitters.) Carpenter has handled offspeed and breaking pitches in the past, putting up good-or-better numbers. But in 2019, Carpenter batted .143 on non-fastballs, the fourth worst in the majors. That included a .138 average (fourth worst) and .195 slug (fourth worst) on changeups. His .149 average against breaking pitches was 12th worst.
seems like a lot of hitters struggled with breaking balls in jeff albert's first year

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