Cards Into Kim

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Spider John
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by Spider John »

dmarx114 wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
dmarx114 wrote: The payroll is the payroll.
The payroll is fake.
I don't follow.

But clearly there is a limit to how much Mo can spend each year.
We holler Mo when a lot of times DeWitt and his budget is the problem.

dmarx114
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by dmarx114 »

pioneer98 wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:
go birds wrote:I personally hope this move keeps us in the 85 win range so that there is plenty of room to luck into 90 wins.
A blogger who does player projections currently has the club at +112. A +112 run differential is about 91-93 wins in an average year. Last year, the Rays, Braves, and Indians all had Rdif of 112-113 and won between 93-97 games. That seems high to me, but it does provide some kind of reference point.

I really don't know why fans around here (and I do mean here, I'm not seeing this a lot elsewhere) are convinced the club is still an 85 win team. Honestly, the club should be able to match the combined OF production of last year -- which was not great -- with our internal options. Goldschmidt, Carpenter, DeJong should be improved and at worse the same. A whole year of dominant Flaherty, otherwise rotation should be at least the same (remember how bad Wacha and his replacements were).

Last year, many of you argued with me all winter when I kept claiming they were a 90 win club. They won 91. This year they're still a 90 win club with more to add. Mo builds 90 win clubs. That's what they're shooting for. Just think about how bad the 85 win rosters were compared to who the club has now.
I think the reason why a 90 win team feels meh is because the top 5 or 6 teams just blow away the Cards in terms of run differential, wins, etc. We are in the era of the "superteam" and the Cards ain't one of those superteams. So yeah, the Cards +102 run differential was pretty nice last year. Here are some others:
Astros +280
Dodgers +273
Yankees +204
Twins +185
A's +165
Nats +149

Cards fans are supposed to be cool with a +102, 91 win team when the Twins and A's can do quite a bit better than that? The Cards got up against the last team on that list in the NLCS and were totally overmatched.
Anyone can be overmatched over 4 games. Just ask the 2004 team.

Also true: The Cards beat the almighty Nats 2 out of 3 in late September.

So yes, be cool with a 91 win team. And thank the baseball gods you don't root for the Pirates.

dmarx114
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by dmarx114 »

Spider John wrote:
dmarx114 wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
dmarx114 wrote: The payroll is the payroll.
The payroll is fake.
I don't follow.

But clearly there is a limit to how much Mo can spend each year.
We holler Mo when a lot of times DeWitt and his budget is the problem.
Exactly. That's the point I am trying to make.

But he's the owner of the team and he can do what he wants. I don't find topics like "this is how much DeWitt should spend on the payroll each year" fascinating. I do enjoy understanding what our payroll range is, and then evaluating the front office decisions based on that budget.

cardsfantx
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by cardsfantx »

Spider John wrote:
dmarx114 wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
dmarx114 wrote: The payroll is the payroll.
The payroll is fake.
I don't follow.

But clearly there is a limit to how much Mo can spend each year.
We holler Mo when a lot of times DeWitt and his budget is the problem.
probably because what we spend, esp with the market we're in, is actually pretty damn good/fair

it's that the budget/roster is made up/huge amounts are taken up by players like carp, fowler, cecil, miller, leake, etc

I know dewitt has to sign off on the contracts, but Mo would be the one bringing them to him...it's not dewitt's job to scout talent, find players, negotiate contracts, etc...and I don't think we'd want that (a jerry jones type)

I do blame dewitt for putting up with it, continuing to extend him...but hey, as long as BPV continues, the high rise apartments/condos are coming, 3+ million are coming through the gates, keeping in the top of the league in viewership, billions in TV revenue, etc...why would he make a change? he's a businessman, and business is good; very very good.

I think we'd all like a tom stillman type with the blues as the owner; spending to the limit/losing money unless the team makes deep runs into the playoffs...he's a fan, just like us. he runs a team like we would...but that's not realistic to assume/expect all owners to be that way.

so I do blame dewitt; just not for his payroll/budget. I blame him for continuing with Mo and the terrible contracts...but as I said before; he's a businessman, and can't truely blame him for staying the course when he's rolling in it.

Socnorb11
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by Socnorb11 »

pioneer98 wrote:
Fat Strat wrote:
go birds wrote:I personally hope this move keeps us in the 85 win range so that there is plenty of room to luck into 90 wins.
A blogger who does player projections currently has the club at +112. A +112 run differential is about 91-93 wins in an average year. Last year, the Rays, Braves, and Indians all had Rdif of 112-113 and won between 93-97 games. That seems high to me, but it does provide some kind of reference point.

I really don't know why fans around here (and I do mean here, I'm not seeing this a lot elsewhere) are convinced the club is still an 85 win team. Honestly, the club should be able to match the combined OF production of last year -- which was not great -- with our internal options. Goldschmidt, Carpenter, DeJong should be improved and at worse the same. A whole year of dominant Flaherty, otherwise rotation should be at least the same (remember how bad Wacha and his replacements were).

Last year, many of you argued with me all winter when I kept claiming they were a 90 win club. They won 91. This year they're still a 90 win club with more to add. Mo builds 90 win clubs. That's what they're shooting for. Just think about how bad the 85 win rosters were compared to who the club has now.
I think the reason why a 90 win team feels meh is because the top 5 or 6 teams just blow away the Cards in terms of run differential, wins, etc. We are in the era of the "superteam" and the Cards ain't one of those superteams. So yeah, the Cards +102 run differential was pretty nice last year. Here are some others:
Astros +280
Dodgers +273
Yankees +204
Twins +185
A's +165
Nats +149

Cards fans are supposed to be cool with a +102, 91 win team when the Twins and A's can do quite a bit better than that? The Cards got up against the last team on that list in the NLCS and were totally overmatched.

The Twins were also 78-84 in 2018, and 59-103 in 2016. The A's were cellar-dwellers 2015 thru 2017. The Cardinals try to compete EVERY year. That's a little trickier. How many years has it been since the A's or Twins won a playoff series? Decades?

The Nationals and Yankees just pay for contenders. The Astros have done an outstanding job building a winner.
Last edited by Socnorb11 on December 17 19, 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Fat Strat
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by Fat Strat »

pioneer98 wrote:I think the reason why a 90 win team feels meh is because the top 5 or 6 teams just blow away the Cards in terms of run differential, wins, etc. We are in the era of the "superteam" and the Cards ain't one of those superteams. So yeah, the Cards +102 run differential was pretty nice last year. Here are some others:
Astros +280
Dodgers +273
Yankees +204
Twins +185
A's +165
Nats +149

Cards fans are supposed to be cool with a +102, 91 win team when the Twins and A's can do quite a bit better than that? The Cards got up against the last team on that list in the NLCS and were totally overmatched.
I didn't say that they had to be cool with it, but they should be accurate with it and not so unrealistically pessimistic and baseless-ly vitriolic. (And, look, go birds said his comment was tongue-in-cheek, so I don't want to drag him back into this unnecessarily. He owned his hyperbole, which is enough for me to let him out of the rest of the convo). There is a significant difference between an 85 win roster and a 90 win roster, just as there is between a 90 win roster and a 100 win roster.

But, sitting at somewhere around +112 in run differential in mid-Dec. is a dang fine place to be for a somewhat flawed roster. And no amount of moves made or money spend can turn this club into a +270 super team. Add $70M in payroll with Cole and Rendon and we're still not adding 150 runs to our differential.

If the Cardinals did that and we were sitting at +155 in rdif instead of +102 would we still need to be salty because we weren't keeping up with the Twins?

Socnorb11
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by Socnorb11 »

dmarx114 wrote:
Spider John wrote:
dmarx114 wrote:
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
dmarx114 wrote: The payroll is the payroll.
The payroll is fake.
I don't follow.

But clearly there is a limit to how much Mo can spend each year.
We holler Mo when a lot of times DeWitt and his budget is the problem.
Exactly. That's the point I am trying to make.

But he's the owner of the team and he can do what he wants. I don't find topics like "this is how much DeWitt should spend on the payroll each year" fascinating. I do enjoy understanding what our payroll range is, and then evaluating the front office decisions based on that budget.

Exactly.

Dewitt is an owner, and owners are businessmen. Baseball Talk probably isn't the best place to discuss Dewitt's business strategies, to be honest.

We know, within reason, what the payroll will be. In my opinion, baseball discussions should consider that context, and go from there. It's pointless to wish upon a star that the Cardinals would suddenly turn into the Yankees.

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wart57
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by wart57 »

Didn't the Nats win the World Series?

cardsfantx
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by cardsfantx »

2 years/8 million

Fat Strat
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Re: Cards Into Kim

Post by Fat Strat »

I know you all like a good photoshop thread:

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