Steve Adams's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams's NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on January 28. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.) A lot of NL Central chatter, thanks to the Reds and Pirates activity.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... -6847.html

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Is there a pretty good chance Nolan Arenado will be a Cardinal?

Steve Adams
Bill DeWitt Jr. came out and said he doesn't foresee another big splash and doesn't expect payroll to add another substantial salary.
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What do you think of the Marte trade?

Steve Adams
I think the price they paid was reasonable, given the level of variance associated with such young prospects. There's a chance that one or both of Peguero and Malone become staples on Top 100 rankings and eventually become high-end big leaguers, but present-day wins are the most valuable commodity in baseball and the D-backs just padded their win total in a meaningful way in 2020-21.
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Any chance Rays are in on Senzel? Lots of positional versatility and team control so seems like something they might be in on.

Steve Adams
It'd be out of character if the Rays *weren't* at least gauging the price on Nick Senzel.

Realistically, all 29 teams have a sense of what the Reds would want for him. But there's also no urgency to move Senzel when his stock is down a bit and he can still get at-bats all over the diamond.
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What kind of market can the Pirates expect if they get serious about listening to offers on Chris Archer?

Steve Adams
I think the market will be stronger this summer; unexpected teams will be contending, injuries will have popped up elsewhere, etc.

I also like Archer as a bounceback candidate and wouldn't be at all surprised with a good first half thanks to a combination of a (hopefully) dejuiced ball and a continued abandonment of the two-seamer the previous regime shoehorned into his arsenal.
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Who could be next on the Pirates trade list?

Steve Adams
Chris Archer, Josh Bell, Keone Kela, Adam Frazier... but Cherington did say yesterday that he's not anticipating more subtractions before the start of the season and hopes to add a (more affordable) CF to replace Marte.
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Senzel is the exact kind of player Farhan would make a push for, no?

Steve Adams
He's the type of player virtually any top exec -- Giants president Farhan Zaidi or otherwise -- would make a push for.

He's a former No. 2 overall pick who was vaunted as one of the game's elite prospects and who has the athleticism to play numerous positions on the diamond.

I doubt the Reds are in a rush to deal him, though, and I doubt they'd do it without getting a high-end SS or C in return. Giants don't really have either of those at the moment.
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Is Senzel being overrated? As an Indians fan, I would not be that impressed if a Lindor trade happened and he was the main piece.

Steve Adams
You're probably underrating him then. I wouldn't judge a 24-year-old No. 2 overall pick based on the limited sample of MLB work he's put in, particularly when it was hampered somewhat by injuries.

There are durability concerns with Senzel at this point, but I don't question the talent, and five years of control over him is extremely valuable. Two years of current Lindor is more valuable, of course, but it wouldn't be a 1-for-1 swap.
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Is it possible that the Cards could sign Carlson to an extension so that service time is no longer a concern and he be the starting LF on Opening Day, similar to the White Sox and Robert?

Steve Adams
Luis Robert is nearly two years older and spent an extra month in AAA over what Dylan Carlson did in 2019. I don't know that the Cardinals are quite as convinced that he's immediately MLB ready. A huge spring might help sway them, but it's still safe to expect him to spend some time in Memphis before coming up.
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More likely to be traded: Mookie or KB?

Steve Adams
Bryant

On the flood of Nick Senzel questions I'm receiving:

I think it's likeliest that the Reds keep him.
I don't think they'd move him unless they were getting an immediate upgrade to a weak point on the roster (SS, C)
The Reds aren't shopping him/desperate to move him, and nothing has characterized their feelings toward him as such.
If you're putting Kyle Seager, Brandon Belt or any type of unwanted contract in the hypothetical deal, you're almost certainly off base on the type of arrangement to which they'd be open.
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Better playoff odds, Reds or White Sox?

Steve Adams
He posted a poll, and the results were:

Reds - 47.9%
White Sox - 15.2%
Both - 7.4%
Neither - 29.4%
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Bryant for Dustin May and Verdugo?

Steve Adams
Dodgers aren't doing that.
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Weird the Reds designated a decent prospect like Jose Siri...you think they plan on putting him in a trade?

Steve Adams
He's been terrible in back to back years. I agree that I figured they'd boot Schebler before someone like him, but Siri is a bit removed from being a decent prospect at this point.
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Do you think the Cardinals are done making moves this offseason?

Steve Adams
In terms of major acquisitions, yes. Some additional minor league deals or a small veteran bullpen/bench pickup doesn't seem out of the question.
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Where will Kevin Pillar start the season?

Steve Adams
Rangers are my guess. I guess he could go to the Pirates if no one else is offering a MLB deal and regular playing time.
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Why Souza over Pillar?

Steve Adams
Fans still seem shocked that Pillar was non-tendered and hasn't been a popular offseason target, but he has a sub-.300 OBP for his career, was at .287 in that regard in 2019 and isn't the defender he once was.

As for the Cubs -- you can be sure that Souza's asking price was much lower, which played into things as well.
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Why is the Bryant grievance taking so long?

Steve Adams
No one knows. Even Bryant and Boras probably don't know exactly when it'll end. I know I say this every week, but that's just reality right now.
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Buying or selling Aquino?

Steve Adams
He had a .236 OBP in September and hasn't shown that type of power outside of the juiced-ball year. I'm not totally writing him off, but I'm not particularly high on him. Seems the Reds are at least somewhat skeptical, too, based on the Castellanos signing.
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The Reds seem to be playing "big market" ball in free agency. There is a reason that teams have shied away from that. Do you see them regretting any of their FA deals?

Steve Adams
I don't really like their deals for Castellanos or Moustakas, but I commend them for going for it.

The Castellanos deal in particular is laden with downside because of the opt-outs, and they already had an interesting slate of corner OFs in house. I'd like it more if he were stepping in for a true replacement-level guy, but that doesn't seem to be the case there.

That pitching staff is formidable, though, and the lineup is strong. Defense will be more suspect, but they should be in the mix in the NLC at the very least.
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Do you think Castellanos opts out next year?

Steve Adams
If he hits like he did in 2018-19, yes.
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Castellanos only gets $14 mil in the 2nd year of the deal, but then he would get a raise back to $16 mil in the 3rd year. If the Reds make the playoffs in 2020, does that persuade him to stick around to be on a winning club for a few years? Or is it just about the money and that's it?

Steve Adams
The only thing that'll be on his mind next winter is whether he can get better than 3/48 on a long-term deal beginning with his age-29 season.
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