Offseason disappointment

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Offseason disappointment

Post by CardsofSTL »

Famous Mortimer wrote:
February 18 20, 4:17 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
February 18 20, 10:14 am
jagtrader wrote:
February 18 20, 9:51 am
pioneer98 wrote:
February 18 20, 9:07 am
I'd feel a lot different about any 91 win team's postseason chances if they had the Nats' rotation.
Yeah, now we're going to pretend the Nats didn't have any high-end talent.
The Cardinals do have high end talent. They just did not perform as well last season.
When was the last time a member of the 2019 Cardinals posted a season as good as Rendon's 2019 (7.0 fWAR)? Or Scherzer's (6.5)?

Actually, I've answered my own question. Goldschmidt did it in 2015, and Carpenter in 2013 (Wainwright also came close that year). I just don't think you can meaningfully compare the Cardinals and Nationals from last year. They had some of the best players in the game, and the Cardinals didn't. The Nationals had five players who outperformed the best Cardinal.

It wasn't my intention to compare the Cardinals to the Nationals; but to infer that the Cardinals do not have high end players on their roster is not a fair criticism.

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pioneer98
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Re: Offseason disappointment

Post by pioneer98 »

I was mainly just referring to how teams with deep starting rotations tend to do better in the playoffs. The Cards' rotation did not have the depth of the Nats or Dodgers and arguably the Barves. They did manage to get past the Barves in a 5 game series though.

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Farewell Friends
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Re: Offseason disappointment

Post by Farewell Friends »

jagtrader wrote:
February 17 20, 11:05 am
The previous two offseasons were great. They tried. It didn't work out the best but they tried. People going back five years aren't acknowledging the landscape has changed. Super teams win. Playing it safe and getting 88 wins won't win a World Series. But it's an easy path because half the league is losing on purpose and you can fool people by lucking into an occasional playoff spot and maybe a series win.
Again, half the league is not losing on purpose. And the super teams, as you say, are built on cheap superstars. The Astros received more than 22 of their 40 offensive fWAR from four players on pre-arb or arbitration salaries. Nearly a quarter of their pitching fWAR came from Cole, who was also on an arbitration salary. Haven't run the numbers on the Yankees or Dodgers, but I would venture it's similar.

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: Offseason disappointment

Post by Famous Mortimer »

AWvsCBsteeeerike3 wrote:
February 18 20, 5:16 pm
I think you may have forgotten Flaherty, who would fit right in with Strausburg and Corbin, just under Scherzer as well as Rendon. I don't think anyone else on the Nats was in the same ballpark, but I've been wrong before.

And, regardless, the point remains. Rendon and the three pitchers were all above 5 wins (Rendon/Scherzer over 6) with Soto being just under 5. Who were the Cardinals leaders, Flaherty (6), Wong (4.7), Dejong (4.1), Edman (3.8) and Goldschmidt? (2.8).
Flaherty was worth 4.7 fWAR last year, and Wong was 3.7...sorry, you're looking at B-R's page. I was using Fangraphs.

By fWAR, the 2019 Nationals had five players more valuable than the best Cardinal. It's been five years since a member of the 2019 Cardinals posted a year as good as Rendon and Scherzer did last year (they also both performed extremely well in 2018).

The point I was responding to was "The Cardinals do have high end talent. They just did not perform as well last season". I disagree, and the numbers back me up. The Cardinals have players who were once at that level but haven't been in some time, and realistically are a long way on the wrong side of the ageing curve. The Cardinals have a lot of good players, but I'd argue that, aside from Flaherty, they have no great ones.

I'm not blaming anyone. The Cardinals tried with Fowler and Goldschmidt but they've both had the worst seasons of their career in St Louis. Ozuna turned out to be the worst of those three Marlins outfielders. It's bad luck on the team's part, but that doesn't take away from the reality of the situation.

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