Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

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Fat Strat
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Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by Fat Strat »

Cardinals ZiPS projections are out. Szymborski and his system did a much better job than Steamer. They inject some real optimism into some players - including Flaherty, Kim, and some bullpeners. Offense isn’t too bad either, especially if the club gives Fowler’s innings to Carlson and finds another OF’er or DH.

I had a real problem with Steamer. They had what I thought were obvious errors. ZiPS is still the best.

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TheoSqua
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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by TheoSqua »

It seems to think Flaherty with rebound. I like that.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by CardsofSTL »

I trust nothing.

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by Famous Mortimer »

I don't think "better" should necesarily mean "more optimistic about your favourite team", but I agree.

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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by Fat Strat »

Famous Mortimer wrote:
December 24 20, 3:12 pm
I don't think "better" should necesarily mean "more optimistic about your favourite team", but I agree.
I just think there are real problems with Steamer's projections. Not even from a biased perspective -- just screwy projections that don't seem to be based in any kind of history or advanced metrics. Flaherty's Steamer projection is a good example. You can go read the article I wrote about it at VEB for more details.

ZiPS does have them as a playoff team -- or close to it. They are 7-10 wins higher than Steamer right now. That's a huge difference and points to problems with one of the models. Considering their history, I've gotta give the nod to ZiPS.

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Popeye_Card
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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by Popeye_Card »

Steamer is an incredibly simplistic system. That’s why they can produce the numbers so quick. Either can be way wrong, but Steamer projections just aren’t worth much whether they are optimistic or not.

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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by cardstatman »

Cards had 11 pitchers with an ERA under 3.60 in 2020. ZIPS predicts Gallegos will be the only one of those 11 who will have an ERA under 4.00 in 2021. This is not pessimistic?

They are losing Hudson and Waino but are gaining Mikolas and Hicks. Flaherty, Martinez, Hicks, Brebbia, Mikolas were 5 of the Cards best 9 pitchers going in to 2020 and they all flopped or did not show up. Brebbia is gone again but the others should rebound.

Only the NL Dodgers had significantly better pitching staff results in 2020 despite STL having to use 17+ pitchers rather than 13 due to playing a compressed schedule. How does using your actual MLB pitchers more and your AAA/AA pitchers less not make you better? Oviedo, Elledge, Crismatt, Sanchez, Kaminsky? Elledge appeared in over 20% of the 2020 games. Yet the STL pitching in 2021 projects to be average at best?

It seems reasonable to project significantly better results for Flaherty, Martinez, and perhaps others who were negatively affected by COVID in 2020. Flaherty was obviously held off the field for a mysterious reason and performed erratically when allowed to play. Martinez was on the IL for COVID for most of the year and rushed back with diminished velocity. Other pitchers also were held back (Whitley, Fernandez, Helsley). Should we expect pretty much every young pitcher to fail to improve?

I think ZIPS is underestimating the STL pitching.

No doubt the STL hitting is suspect but I do wonder if they also suffered from lack of rest (when they were not on the COVID IL). Goldy, DeJong, Molina seemed to never get a day off and all played more games than the number of days in the season when they were on the active roster.

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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by PA_Hiker »

cardstatman wrote:
December 25 20, 8:28 am
No doubt the STL hitting is suspect but I do wonder if they also suffered from lack of rest (when they were not on the COVID IL). Goldy, DeJong, Molina seemed to never get a day off and all played more games than the number of days in the season when they were on the active roster.
SSS and all but the Cards offense was at a 105 wRC+ through Sept 13th and 65 wRC+ the last two weeks. There's no doubt they were worn out by season's end. Slugging and stolen bases were the giant drop offs from 2019 and it makes sense that those types of activities would be much reduced if you lack the energy from playing so many games.

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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by Fat Strat »

I did a deeper dive into the ZiPS projections and the results are very encouraging. There is a 7-10 WAR (projectioned wins) difference between Steamer and ZiPS. Steamer has them at 78 wins. ZiPS has them at 87. Almost all of the difference comes on the pitching side, where Steamer regressed the heck out of the Cardinals' arms, essentially making all of them into league average or worse players. Most of it is based on FIP neutralization, which is silly since defense does exist and is measurable. The defense is included on the offensive side of the game but it's heavily regressed across the board -- pretty much for all players on all teams. The result is an intended/unintended punishment for teams who are built on pitching (especially ground balls) and defense, which has been the Cardinals' model for 20 some years.

ZiPS basically has the team in the playoffs with some room to grow in players like Carlson. I'll have to look at the Cubs, Brewers and Reds at some point but I don't want to do it until roster are more set.

Here's the article on VEB: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/12/26 ... rojections

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Famous Mortimer
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Re: Cardinals ZiPS Projections are out

Post by Famous Mortimer »

How have ZiPS and Steamer performed in recent years regarding the Cardinals?

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