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Famous Mortimer wrote: ↑
December 26 20, 5:17 pm
How have ZiPS and Steamer performed in recent years regarding the Cardinals?
Szymborski answered that question himself on my first Steamer article a few weeks ago. I will just post his response:
ZiPS had underrated the Cardinals by 1.4 wins per 162 games over the last 16 years.
The teams that have exceeded ZiPS by the most, are the Angels by 3.5 wins (You’d expect 2% of teams to do that by random chance), the Yankees by 3.0 wins (4%), and Astros by 2.6 wins (2.6%). You’d expect only 10% of teams or three of 30, out of random chance, to exceed their ZiPS projections by an average of 2.1 wins over this time frame. These are the only three teams that have exceeded the ZiPS projections by this amount on average.
The teams that ZiPS has overrated the most are the Cubs by 3.4 wins (2%), Giants at 2.6 wins (7%), and Orioles at 2.2 wins (9%) Again, these are the only three teams that ZiPS overrated by 2.1 wins or more.
Here’s the overall calibration for ZiPS team wins by team in decile for how you would expect them to far by random chance. The goal is, of course, to have three teams in every decile (errors are normally distributed and the deciles shrink as you get towards 0)
Most ZiPS overrated decile: 3
Second decile: 2
Third decile: 4
Fourth decile: 4
Fifth decile: 4
Sixth decile: 2
Seventh decile: 1
Eight decile: 4
Ninth decile: 3
Most ZiPS underrated decile: 3
Historical individual team win projections are also not improved by knowing how ZiPS fared with that specific team either the year before or the accuracy of ZiPS based on every year with that specific team up until the year in question.