Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Mark Polishuk that occurred on January 24. This chat took place right before the Taillon trade went down, so keep that in mind as you read it. I included 3 bonus Q&As this time: one about fan attendance in 2021, another Q&A about HoF inductees this year and another about a hypothetical non-competitive balance tax.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-9749.html

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If the Pirates take on Ottavino could they get more prospects for Taillon?

Mark Polishuk
The idea of the Pirates taking on any money seems questionable, but in theory, sure. The Yankees would love to get Ottavino's contract off the books and free up a bit more luxury tax space.
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Cardinals like to sign their promising young players long term contracts, maybe the reason they haven't signed Flaherty one of those because he ain't interested?

Mark Polishuk
Flaherty and the Cards are going to an arbitration hearing, and even his pre-arb salaries were renewed rather than agreed upon (details here: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/03/ ... tract.html)

So yeah, it seems like the two sides have trouble seeing eye to eye on even more basic contract talks, let alone an extension.
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"high-ceiling prospects, even if that means taking players who are further away from reaching the Majors"

So you're saying Taillon for Jasson Dominguez?

Mark Polishuk
Yeah, I'm going to go ahead and predict that Dominguez isn't part of this deal.
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Krall's strategy of using open forty man spots to pick low hanging fruit as other teams have to make their deductions. Smart? Or a bunch of nothing?

Mark Polishuk
(Nick Krall = Reds' GM, not the guy from Oh Hello)

Not a bad tactic, gives the Reds some more options to sift through during spring.
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The Yankees still have 40 men on their roster, and have yet too announce DJ and Kluber. Do you see another trade coming to free up spots? I doubt Taillon will cost 3 players on the 40 man. Or do the Yankees DFA someone?

Mark Polishuk
Two 40-man players for Taillon seems reasonable. From there, sure, some room will have to be created.
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How much trade value does Taillon actually have after a second Tommy John surgery?

Mark Polishuk
Enough that he'll get a pretty good trade return back to Pittsburgh. Taillon is still a #2 overall pick, and when healthy has looked like a very capable MLB starter.
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Joc Pederson seems to be a potential fit in STL. He could platoon in the outfield with Bader and add some power to their struggling offense. Any thoughts on something like this happening?

Mark Polishuk
Pederson makes a lot of sense for STL, but the question is how much money they have available to spend this winter.
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Cardinals need offense to contend. Dewitt had shown he’s not willing to spend money. Will it take new owners for the Cardinals to be competitive again?

Mark Polishuk
In fairness, the Cards have made the playoffs the last two years, so it's not like they haven't been "competitive." And the Cardinals have also been willing to spend --- the problem is that they've invested a lot of money in several players (i.e. Carpenter, Fowler, Mikolas, CarMar) who are real question marks heading into 2021.
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Reds have been picking up no name relief pitchers all off season but have been lacking on the SS front. Anything going to happen before spring training? That is a big weak spot within a very winnable division.

Mark Polishuk
I wonder if all the NL Central teams are warily eyeing each other and saying "hmm, if they're not trying, maybe we also can just stand pat?"
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Wanna guess the Pirates opening day payroll?

Mark Polishuk
Roster Resource currently has it at a little under $44.5MM.

Let's say $40MM as a reasonable guess.
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Gyorko put up a respectable, maybe even good, slash line in MIL last year. Why doesn’t anyone want him this off-season? Where does he land?

Mark Polishuk
Gyorko was good last year, but there are a lot of Jedd Gyorko types in free agency right now.
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Are the Mets looking into Cain? Brewers match up well for trade with them. Him and Suter make sense Mets to finish offseason.

Mark Polishuk
Not sure if the Mets want to expend much trade capital on a guy who didn't play in 2020 and who struggled in 2019.
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It seems like if things continue to trend as they are currently that we will see fans in stadiums at a reduced rate to begin the season and possibly even full stadiums by the All Star Break. What say you?

Mark Polishuk
I'm a lot more doubtful than that. It will be interesting if MLB issues a blanket 'no fans' policy across the league (for the start of the season at least), or if some teams will be allowed to welcome some fans based on local regulations.
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Who is getting into the HoF this week?

Mark Polishuk
I don't think anyone is being voted in.
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What do you think of the idea of a Non-Competitive Balance Tax that would mirror the CBT for teams on the other end of the payroll spectrum with increasing penalties for multiple years on non-spending?

Mark Polishuk
Here's the problem with that idea. Say the Rays get penalized for not spending above the NCBT threshold. Couldn't they logically argue "we're an excellent team without having to spend big, why are we facing this punishment?"

Now, if the NCBT penalties are as minimal as the CBT penalties, some teams might not care.
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