Steve Adams's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams's NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on February 9. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

Every NL Central team is discussed this time. I included a bonus Q&A about PTBNLs, another bonus Q&A about the renewed rule changes, and a quick summation of the luxury tax.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... -9898.html

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Rotation help for the Cards?

Steve Adams
Seems like they're exploring it, yeah. Linked to all three of Odorizzi, Paxton and Walker within the past week. Derrick Goold noted that they're in on Odo, and you're not going to get much better Cards info than you get from Goold.
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Kris Bryant, Craig Kimbrel and 15 million dollars to the Braves for Drew Waters and Austin Riley? Who says no?

Steve Adams
Cubs fan, I see.

(No way the Braves do that.)
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Dee Gordon can’t be Reds answer at SS. Surely there is someone coming that is playable.

Steve Adams
It's been two months since the Reds dumped Iglesias' salary and non-tendered Bradley, Casali, Goodwin. GM Nick Krall said at the time the plan was to "reallocate" resources; it's looking like those resources were "reallocated" to Bob Castellini's pockets. They might make a small-scale trade for an Amed Rosario type, but they've already missed the boat on every free-agent of note. Don't get your hopes up.

Tough offseason to be a Reds fan. I'd be extremely dejected.
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Who starts at 3rd base for the Brewers on opening day?

Steve Adams
Luis Urias would be my current pick, but it's the Brewers, and they sign a bunch of late one-year deals every winter. Could see them grab a Jake Lamb or something still if they like the price.
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Dustin May to Cubs for Kris Bryant. Who says no?

Steve Adams
Kris Bryant isn't bringing back a big league starter with 5-6 years of control.

A Bryant trade seems likelier to resemble the Yu Darvish deal -- salary relief and a bunch of low-level lotto tickets.
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Who's the best bench player left on the market?

Steve Adams
I guess it depends what you're looking for. Infield I'd say Jedd Gyorko or Brad Miller. Probably Marisnick in the OF.
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Pirates sign James Paxton. Eh?

Steve Adams
Paxton wants $12MM per year. The Pirates' entire payroll might not be $12MM in 2021.

(I kid -- the minimum is $14.69MM -- but I also see no way the Bucs give that out.)
Well -- he wants $12MM for 2021. One-year deal. Point remains.
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Why do you hate Cub fans?

Steve Adams
If I hated Cub fans, I wouldn't have much of a relationship with my dad or the bulk of his side of the family (Joliet natives). Just a whole lot of bad trade proposals from them today (e.g. Gleyber+Clarke Schmidt for one year of Javy Baez). Suppose I could ignore them all, but when lots of people are asking about the same players/combinations, I'll try to take one or two even if they're outlandish.
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What do the Brewers have to do to get Odorizzi to come home to Milwaukee instead of going to St. Louis? 3-year, $40 million?

Steve Adams
I think 3/40 would be a very competitive offer for Odorizzi -- if not a winning bid. But I don't think the Brewers would give it out, either.
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Doesn't it make sense for the Cardinals to chase a multi-year deal for a starter? Waino is probably done after this year, Kim is only under contract one more year. Same with C-Mart. I think Mikolas has only 1 more year and rumors always swirl Flaherty isn't the happiest. Seems like a logical play for a 3 year contract with Paxton or Odo even with the perceived depth they have at SP.

Steve Adams
You're forgetting Dakota Hudson in the future equation -- I'm personally not a huge fan of him, but he'll be in the plans -- but yeah there's good sense in doing so. That's why they're looking at Odorizzi, I'm sure. I don't think anyone would give Paxton three years after 2020.
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Is Amed Rosario straight up for either Senzel or Aquino a fair deal?

Steve Adams
For Aquino, maybe. No way on Senzel.
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Why have I heard nothing about Jeremy Jeffress, he finished 3rd in reliever of the year voting last year. Am I missing something?

Steve Adams
He was nowhere near as good as his ERA looked in 2020
Wrote this on him last month:

The 33-year-old Jeffress was dominant back in 2018 but hasn’t replicated that form since. He did post an aesthetically pleasing 1.54 ERA and 54.4 percent grounder rate in 23 1/3 innings with the Cubs last year, but the rest of his numbers were something of a mess. Jeffress’ 13.6 percent walk rate was his worst since establishing himself as a consistent presence in MLB bullpens, while his 19.3 percent strikeout rate was 10 percent lower than his 29.8 percent clip from that brilliant 2018 campaign. Last year also saw Jeffress post career-worsts in average fastball velocity (93.3 mph), average exit velocity (89.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (45.6 percent). If Jeffress can rediscover his ’18 form, he’d be a premium late-inning option, but last year’s ERA was propped up by a .161 average on balls in play that is miles south of his career .308 mark.

He'll probably get a year and a couple million bucks, but between the horrid secondary metrics, the roller coaster track record and the off field drama, I doubt there are going to be any bidding wars.
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What time frame does MLB give teams to name PTBNL?

Steve Adams
Six months, I believe. I know they revamped the rules on it a couple years ago, but pretty sure the timeframe stayed intact.
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7 inning double headers and runner on second to begin extra's are not real baseball to me. Is this the last season we see this nonsense?????

Steve Adams
Depends on how the CBA talks go. I don't like the runner on base in extras, either, but the whole "This isn't baseball" argument is a reach. The rules change almost every year. Baseball in 2020 doesn't even look like baseball did in 2010. Sports are always going to be changing; the core of the game remains the same, and I'd rather appreciate that than spend all my time dwelling on the changes around the margins.
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What is the luxury tax and what does it do?

Steve Adams
It's a slap on the wrist for exceeding an arbitrary payroll threshold ($210MM worth of collective average annual salary on a roster in 2021).

First-time offenders pay 20% in overages for the first $20MM by which they exceed, plus another 12% for the next $20MM and a 42.5% for anything thereafter.

Second-time offenders pay 30% for that first tier. Third-timers pay 50%.

Exceeding by more than $40MM knocks your top pick back 10 spots in the draft.

All things considered, it's an extremely light penalty that owners like to use as leverage in talks with agents. That they've managed to sell so many fans on the notion that it's an actual deterrent is nuts to me. The Dodgers are going to pay like $7MM in overages after signing Bauer. For a team with pockets that deep ... big deal.
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CardsofSTL
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Re: Steve Adams's NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

I would like the Cardinals to go after Odorizzi but I don't see them being the top bidder.

tlombard
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Re: Steve Adams's NL Central comments

Post by tlombard »

CardsofSTL wrote:
February 9 21, 4:33 pm
I would like the Cardinals to go after Odorizzi but I don't see them being the top bidder.
I have friends who grew up with Jake and I would be amazed if he came here. Everything I hear is that he doesn't want the pressures of playing at home with regards to kids he met in third grade trying to be his best friend and such. Maybe they are wrong if the money is right but I don't think he wants the added distractions and won't sign with the Cards unless it is a stupid amount of money. I say 'them' referring to my friends because I'm always wrong.

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