Steve Adams's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams's NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on February 16. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

Every NL Central team is discussed again this time. I included a bonus Q&A about SP projections and one about teams not being competitive.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... -9954.html

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Cards left side infield defense:best in baseball?

Steve Adams
Healthy Arenado/DeJong -- probably. Could give it to Donaldson/Simmons, too, if both are healthy (the latter is a larger "if" though).
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Do the Reds go for Rosenthal?

Steve Adams
If they were willing to spend like that on a reliever, I doubt they'd have dumped Raisel Iglesias for nothing and then sat out the rest of the winter (with the exception of $1.5MM for Doolittle).
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Where do you think Odorizzi ends up? I originally thought the Cardinals, but sounds like they're finished with upgrades.

Steve Adams
Yeah, it's tough to see the Cards shelling out a three-year deal for him after Mozeliak's recent comments. Twins would probably give him a soft landing if he decides to settle for one year (Cards could too at that point), but the Mets, Angels and Blue Jays all seem likelier to me at this point.

We're also at the point of the offseason where players will start getting hurt early in camp; with a notable injury on the right contender, a fit we didn't give much consideration to could open up in a hurry.
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With full time at bats, can Joc Pederson be a 35 HR, 100 RBI player?

Steve Adams
With full-time at-bats, Joc probably boosts his counting stats and hurts the numbers that actually matter.

All of his rate stats will go down.
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What more will the Pirates do this offseason? They're fielding a decent AAA team at PNC.

Steve Adams
Pirates just agreed to a Major League deal with Tyler Anderson, per Ken Rosenthal.
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Does David Robertson get a ML deal? Where?

Steve Adams
The track record is so good that yeah, I can see a big league deal. Probably a cheap one. Cubs are still looking for those types of arms. Twins. Phillies. Braves.

Phillies have the Girardi connection and we've seen a few former Yankees go there, though that's only a loose and speculative connection.
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Thoughts on the signing of Derek Fisher; where will he end up on the Brewers roster?

Steve Adams
It's cash/player to be named for a guy who was a top draft pick by the Astros when current Brewers president David Stearns was still in Houston. I'd imagine he just believes in the talent/makeup and wants to take a low-cost look at him as a depth option this spring. He's not even a lock to make the Opening Day roster since he's out of options.
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Bryant for J.D. Davis +?

Steve Adams
My answer is the same as it was in last week's chat, with the updated/added caveat that Cubs president Jed Hoyer today called those rumors flat-out "inaccurate" and said he's not in any trade talks.

Hoyer doesn't have to make those comments. He can easily no-comment it and no one would think twice. If he's going out of his way to say he expects this group to stay intact for Opening Day, that's what we should all expect.
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Will Alex Reyes win the 5th starting pitcher spot over Carlos Martinez?

Steve Adams
Reyes has pitched a total of 87 innings since the 2016 season ended.

I think Cardinals fans need to give up on the idea of him pitching as a starter anytime soon. If he gave you 40 innings out of the bullpen, you'd have to consider that a good year.
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Is Sonny Gray getting traded before Opening Day?

Steve Adams
At this point, I would lean strongly against that possibility.
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Could the Brewers trade Josh Hader for Jose Ramirez?

Steve Adams
No, they could not.
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Is Story going to the Queen City for Senzel and/or Mahle?

Steve Adams
The Reds haven't spent at all this winter, and the Rockies' GM plainly stated he expects Story to open the season in Colorado. I wouldn't get your hopes up.
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Extremely early picks for most likely deadline trade candidates?

Steve Adams
Just put the Pirates, Orioles and Rockies' rosters all on a wall and throw a dart.
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Hey Steve, looking at projections for starting pitchers, I'm curious what kind of odds you'd give for everyone basically being wrong. What I mean is, most people are projecting close to normal workloads, say 170-180 instead of 200 and that sounds reasonable but this is such uncharted territories, is there a chance barely anyone get get past 150? And then how does that impact the league. More minor leaguers getting called up, more fringe starters piggy backing with one another, stuff like that?

Steve Adams
Yeah, projection systems are going to operate based on prior workloads without factoring in the context of the shortened-schedule implications. I think we'll see a lot of guys topping out in the 150-160 range, fewer 180-inning pitchers than ever and wonder if there'll be a single 200-inning pitcher this year.

To the second part of your question -- probably all of it. More fringe minor league guys called up and bandied about waivers. Shorter starts, more frequent usage of tandems/piggybacks, etc.
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Why do so many teams look like they're not even trying? Is it the salary structure?

Steve Adams
Because the league has inextricably tied the acquisition of talent to a team's win-loss percentage under the misguided delusion that doing so will help keep smaller-market teams competitive. All it's actually done is usher in this nonsense about competitive cycles and the swiss-cheese narrative that total rebuilds and teardowns are simple necessities for clubs to compete.
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