It’s a race that currently means nothing because it hasn’t actually begun, but at this writing, the Brewers have inched ahead of the Cardinals in our projected NL Central standings, albeit by a whopping 1.3 wins, 82.1 to 80.9. It’s the kind of thing that happens as we tweak the playing time inputs based upon spring training-related news and updated assumptions, but it’s a reminder that the gap between the two teams — or really, the Central’s top four, including the Cubs (projected for 79.5 wins) and Reds (78.1 wins) — is very small. Any edge could be the difference between snagging a division title or sitting at home in October, particularly given the unlikelihood of the division generating a Wild Card participant.
Todd Bonzalez: Reds win a series against the Cardinals 2-1 and their playoff odds go up 12%? What’s with the volatility? Is the central *THAT* close?
Ben Clemens: A lot of that is that we changed the Cards’ IP projections to account for injuries and it made them a lot weaker
Ben Clemens: They’ve lost 2.6 games of projected wins on a 1-2 start, that’s hard to do