Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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Fat_Bulldog
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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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I think he is making a mistake. Who knows what the market might bring after a potential work stoppage due to upcoming new CBA that needs to be negotiated.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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If he has a good year and doesn't get better offers in the offseason; he can probably still get this deal from the Mets. The only risk he is taking is if he gets injured this season or has a down year.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
March 30 21, 10:27 pm
Popeye_Card wrote:
March 30 21, 4:49 pm
MinorLeagueGuy wrote:
March 30 21, 1:36 pm
Yowzers. AAV of $32m until he's almost 40 years old? Glad we splashed on Nolando. Lindor is good, but not special.
I think he's special, but likely only for the next few seasons. The number of SS's who are top 10 type players after they turn 30 is extremely small.
"Ain't special" is rich.

Automatic 5-7 WAR player for the next few seasons with 2-3 per season for awhile after. That pays for itself immediately. If that "ain't special" then who the [expletive] is?

If he can't field SS, slide him to 2B and still get a lot of WAR. It's not like he's getting his runs via speed. He has negative BsR so I think he will age fine.
He's been quite special up to this point in his career. Since 1960, there have been only 4 SS's who have posted more fWAR through age 26 than Lindor - ARod, Ripken, Yount, Fregosi. Had we not had the COVID-shortened season last year, Lindor would likely be 3rd.

But now the problem is what happens after this age for SS's - even elite ones. Let's assume Lindor's extension will kick in after this season, so starting with his age 28 season. Here is the list of SS's who posted >25 fWAR through their age 27 season(since 1960).

Alex Rodriguez 62.0
Cal Ripken 43.2
Robin Yount 38.0
Jim Fregosi 34.8
Alan Trammell 29.8
Francisco Lindor 29.2
Hanley Ramirez 29.1
Nomar Garciaparra 27.9
Derek Jeter 27.3
Rico Petrocelli 26.8
Xander Bogaerts 26.5

Now here is the list of SS's who posted >25 fWAR from age 28 on.

Ozzie Smith 55.4
Cal Ripken 49.3
Derek Jeter 45.8

Barry Larkin 44.0
Alan Trammell 34.0
Maury Wills 34.0
Omar Vizquel 33.3
Miguel Tejada 30.6
Luis Aparicio 30.5
Bert Campaneris 30.5
Jimmy Rollins 30.4
Dave Concepcion 25.9

Bolded are the players on both lists. Pretty small group.

Now let's break it down. ARod and Yount don't make it because they changed positions. Ripken also switched to 3B in his mid-30's. Injuries from aged 29 on did Fregosi in. Hanley Ramirez was essentially done at age 30. Nomar for the most part too (also switched to 3B). Ditto Petrocelli, and we'll see how Bogaerts does.

Looking at the group past 28, I think we can agree that Lindor likely won't be Ozzie, Vizquel, Ripken, or Concepcion with the glove. He likely won't be a good enough baserunner to be Wills, Aparicio, Campaneris, or Rollins.

That leaves Jeter, Larkin, Trammell, and Tejada. Jeter's value was driven almost exclusively by his bat, along with a bit of a boost from baserunning, and perhaps surprisingly average defense, plus being really good through age 38. This would be a best-case scenario for Lindor, though he's pretty clearly a step or two below Jeter with the bat - Jeter carrried a .370 OBP from age 28 on, where Lindor has never topped that number in a single season thus far. Larkin would be another best-case scenario. His batting and defensive profile line up pretty closely with Lindor in his younger years, then he was outstanding in his early 30's. Pretty similar for Trammell. Tejada I'd personally take out of the evaluation, due to the likely PED use.

So there you go. Lindor would basically have to be Jeter, Larkin, or Trammell to be worth the 10 year deal being offered. That's a pretty exclusive list of HOF'ers. Going 12 years is just throwing money away. Even these guys, save Jeter, were non-factors past age 35. Lindor likely has 6-8 good years left, and to double that in contract length would be foolish. But kudos to him if he can get it.

A 7 or 8 year deal is great for the club. A 10 year deal is a comfortable risk and good for both sides. A 12 year deal is likely a non-starter. Middle infield just isn't where you want to commit big money to any years past 35. You might as well light that money on fire. I'd give Lindor a bit of a bump for being a "face of the franchise" type of guy.

Finally, virtually no one switches from SS to 2B. I can't think of a single great SS who has done so.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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World Series MVP David Eckstein was primarily a 2Bman his last two plus seasons. Not sure you'd pay 350 million for that though.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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CardsofSTL wrote:
March 31 21, 9:52 am
World Series MVP David Eckstein was primarily a 2Bman his last two plus seasons. Not sure you'd pay 350 million for that though.
I apologize. David Eckstein and his career 16.7 fWAR did slip my mind when I was thinking of the great SS's in baseball history.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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Popeye_Card wrote:
March 31 21, 10:07 am
CardsofSTL wrote:
March 31 21, 9:52 am
World Series MVP David Eckstein was primarily a 2Bman his last two plus seasons. Not sure you'd pay 350 million for that though.
I apologize. David Eckstein and his career 16.7 fWAR did slip my mind when I was thinking of the great SS's in baseball history.
Please refer to him as World Series MVP David Eckstein from now on to avoid his wrath.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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Rabbit Maranville is probably the most prominent SS to switch to 2B at the end of his career. Or John Montgomery Ward, but 19th Century baseball is kind of its own thing. Concepcion also spent his last couple years playing mostly at 2B, but not full-time.

Third base is a more common shift for aging shortstops (because mobility generally fades faster than arm strength), while 2B/SS is more common for utility players or guys who shift around early in their career (there are some big stars like Hornsby or Bobby Grich who started at SS but moved to 2B early on). The first group tends to include more star players (or at least stars we associate with SS), so I think that's why we see more A-Rod/Ripken types shift to 3B.

For the purposes of this discussion, though, I don't think it really matters all that much what position Lindor ends up at. If he goes to 3B or OF like A-Rod or Yount but keeps providing value, that's just as good to whoever signs him as if he provides the same value at SS or 2B.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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Kincaid wrote:
March 31 21, 3:14 pm
For the purposes of this discussion, though, I don't think it really matters all that much what position Lindor ends up at. If he goes to 3B or OF like A-Rod or Yount but keeps providing value, that's just as good to whoever signs him as if he provides the same value at SS or 2B.
Yeah, but that's the rub. Lindor has hit well to this point in his career for a shortstop who fields that position pretty well. If he were to drop to 3B, he's either going to have to get an offensive boost over where he's typically been, or gain a defensive boost. Not to say that can't happen - he's a talented player - but I'd be wary of making a $300+MM bet on it.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

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Re: Lindor offered 10yrs $325m. He says NOPE.

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Popeye_Card wrote:
March 31 21, 4:58 pm
Kincaid wrote:
March 31 21, 3:14 pm
For the purposes of this discussion, though, I don't think it really matters all that much what position Lindor ends up at. If he goes to 3B or OF like A-Rod or Yount but keeps providing value, that's just as good to whoever signs him as if he provides the same value at SS or 2B.
Yeah, but that's the rub. Lindor has hit well to this point in his career for a shortstop who fields that position pretty well. If he were to drop to 3B, he's either going to have to get an offensive boost over where he's typically been, or gain a defensive boost. Not to say that can't happen - he's a talented player - but I'd be wary of making a $300+MM bet on it.
That's not really how WAR works. If he moves to 3B then theoretically he'd be a better fielding 3B and get a WAR boost there. Like Edman at 3B a couple years ago. Lindor would be around Arenado hitting wise. ~115 +/-3 wRC+ range.

In fact, Arenado and Lindor have the same career wRC+. And Lindor is a few years younger.

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