Except that *is* how WAR works. It is right there in the equation.Big Amoco Sign wrote: ↑March 31 21, 10:04 pmThat's not really how WAR works. If he moves to 3B then theoretically he'd be a better fielding 3B and get a WAR boost there. Like Edman at 3B a couple years ago. Lindor would be around Arenado hitting wise. ~115 +/-3 wRC+ range.Popeye_Card wrote: ↑March 31 21, 4:58 pmYeah, but that's the rub. Lindor has hit well to this point in his career for a shortstop who fields that position pretty well. If he were to drop to 3B, he's either going to have to get an offensive boost over where he's typically been, or gain a defensive boost. Not to say that can't happen - he's a talented player - but I'd be wary of making a $300+MM bet on it.Kincaid wrote: ↑March 31 21, 3:14 pmFor the purposes of this discussion, though, I don't think it really matters all that much what position Lindor ends up at. If he goes to 3B or OF like A-Rod or Yount but keeps providing value, that's just as good to whoever signs him as if he provides the same value at SS or 2B.
In fact, Arenado and Lindor have the same career wRC+. And Lindor is a few years younger.
WAR = (Batting Runs + Base Running Runs +Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment + League Adjustment +Replacement Runs) / (Runs Per Win)
Per 162 games:
Catcher: +12.5 runs
First Base: -12.5 runs
Second Base: +2.5 runs
Third Base: +2.5 runs
Shortstop: +7.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Center Field: +2.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
So even assuming that defense capability remains constant from SS to 3B, a player is worth a half win more as a SS than a 3B.
As for a SS being able to transition to a better fielding 3B, that theory hasn't really held up in practice. A-Rod was a very good defender at SS, after one fairly good season at 3B at 28, he carried neutral to negative defensive value for most of his remaining career. Ripken was an excellent defensive SS. Switching to 3B at age 36, he had a clear drop-off in defensive value.
I've not really made the Arenado comparison yet, but since you brought him up - Arenado hasn't been a 115 +/-3 wRC+ hitter. He's only fell in that range once, in his sophomore season. He's been a 130 +/-5 hitter in 4 of the past 5 seasons if you want to look on the bright side. He has two sub-80 seasons including last year if you want to be a negative nancy. Though he carries the same career wRC+ as Lindor, in most seasons he has been a superior hitter. He's also got 3 inches and 25-30 pounds on Lindor, leading me to think his power is going to be a bit more sustainable into his 30's.
I've been on record throughout the winter as preferring Lindor to Arenado. And if you offered me both over the next 5 seasons, I'd still take Lindor. Now we know their contracts.
Lindor: 11 total seasons (2020 plus his just signed extension), $363.3MM / $33MM AAV, ages 27-38
Arenado: 6 seasons remaining, $164MM / $27.3MM AAV remaining (minus the $50MM the Rockies are kicking in), ages 30-35
Given the choice between those two options now, I'd likely take Arenado. Lindor is certainly going to give you more for the next few seasons and I understand some preferring that. But that contract is going to be tough to swallow if Lindor doesn't buck a lot of trends for middle infielders in their 30's.