4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

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CardsofSTL
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4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

Post by CardsofSTL »

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Cardinals @ Marlins
5:40 PM CT - April 6, 2021
loanDepot park - Miami, FL
Watch: Cardinals BSMW - Marlins BSF
Listen: Cardinals KMOX 1120 AM - Marlins 940 AM WINZ

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CardsofSTL
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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

Post by CardsofSTL »

In case the Braves stock photo confuses anyone; Gant looks like this:


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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

Post by CardsofSTL »

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As Daniel Ponce de Leon made his way through Spring Training -- his grasp firm around a rotation spot given the plethora of injuries to Cardinals starters -- his homework assignment was to limit walks, get ahead in counts and find a way to stray from the high pitch counts that have followed him throughout his career.

At least one of those goals was accomplished in Monday’s 4-1 series-opening win over the Marlins at loanDepot park. In his first start of the year, Ponce de Leon conceded a single free pass across five innings of one-run baseball, which in turn became the crispest outing from a Cardinals starter four games into the 2021 season.

Ponce de Leon set the stage by serving Marlins batters a hefty dose of fastballs, with 83 of his 93 pitches (89.2 percent) coming in the form of four-seamers. Since 2008, when pitches were first tracked, that’s the second-highest rate of four-seamers thrown in a start (minimum 90 pitches), behind only Milwakuee’s Freddy Peralta 91.8 percent rate in 2018.

Ponce de Leon tested his breaking pitches in the bullpen before the game but none were working, he said. He and Yadier Molina conferred, and the game plan became clear.

“We stuck with the old number 1,” Ponce de Leon said.

Ponce de Leon said he didn’t let the pitfalls of his rotation predecessors dictate his outing, after Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Carlos Martínez conceded 16 earned runs in 12 innings to open the season. But he had one live product from which to glean.

Marlins starter Taylor Rogers opened his night with three walks to his first four batters, ultimately allowing the first run to score without a hit conceded.

“I've been in many of those holes in my life,” Ponce de Leon said. “I kind of knew what he was feeling out there, and I don't want to feel that anymore in my life.”

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CardsofSTL
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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

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Time to bring this back.

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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

Post by Jocephus »

The Miami Marlins are 1-3 at home this season and the St. Louis Cardinals are 2-2 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Marlins\' starter Sandy Alcantara is forecasted to have a better game than Cardinals\' starter John Gant. Sandy Alcantara has a 41% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while John Gant has a 31% chance of a QS. If Sandy Alcantara has a quality start the Marlins has a 67% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.3 and he has a 24% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Marlins win 55%. In John Gant quality starts the Cardinals win 67%. He has a 22% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 67% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Starling Marte who averaged 2.73 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 50% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 62% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the St. Louis Cardinals is Nolan Arenado who averaged 2.87 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 50% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cardinals have a 61% chance of winning.

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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

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We have a 31% chance of having a 67% chance of winning. I'll take those odds A.S.S.

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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

Post by heyzeus »

We win this game 4-3, and there are 16 strikeouts. Also, you will not complete that project you were hoping to complete today. Sorry.

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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

Post by CardsofSTL »

Marlins lineup not posted yet because Donnie Baseball likes to think things over.

Tommy Edman (S) RF
Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
Nolan Arenado (R) 3B
Paul DeJong (R) SS
Matt Carpenter (L) 2B
Yadier Molina (R) C
Tyler O'Neill (R) LF
Dylan Carlson (S) CF
John Gant (R) P


The Cardinals have decided to correct their gaping offensive problem in RF by having Edman play out there and having hot hitting Matt Carpenter bat fifth as today's starting second baseman.

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Re: 4/6 GDT: Cardinals(Gant)@Marlins(Alcantara) 5:40 PM CT

Post by heyzeus »

Matt Carpenter is batting 5th.

Mat Carpnter is bating 5th.

At Arpntr is bang 5

Mt Marpnt ibat 5

fidth

fiv

(brain melts)

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