Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

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haltz
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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

Post by haltz »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
May 18 21, 8:17 pm
Because he’s Pujols. It’s probably that he was too slow to get to anything hard to his right outside of 2007.

bWAR also says he wasn’t that good at defense in STL.

UZR is pretty fair to him as a Cardinal too. He was okay, but not great at defense. He was never Goldy level.
Not sure what numbers we're looking at here. UZR has him at +63.5 as a first baseman. That defense number next to his overall WAR includes a -12.5/season positional adjustment.

Goldschmidt is also a plus first baseman, but +45 DRS and +15 UZR as opposed to Albert's +141 (+123 for his first 10 years) and +63.5.
Also wRC+ (what FG uses) is far superior to OPS+, like very much so.
Not really. OPS+ actually gives OBP a heavier weighting than SLG unlike OPS and is closer to wRC+ than you might expect. Either way both bWAR and fWAR use wOBA for their WAR calculations so it doesn't really have anything to do with this discussion.
DRS is way too extreme with way larger margin for error. UZR is preferred with its methodology with its buckets.
Also wrong. DRS uses buckets and the same underlying data from BIS. It's my understanding that DRS tries to credit scoops for 1B and also takes out plays where the 1B is holding a runner on and calculates them separately. Maybe they get it right or maybe they don't but DRS tries harder for first basemen it seems.

A a big chunk of the discrepancy with Albert comes from the DRS Good Fielding Plays/Defensive Misplays (GFP/DME) where he's +30
BIS’s video scouts flag good and bad plays and categorize them into predefined descriptive groups. These categories include events like when an infielder has to settle for the out at first, because he bobbled the ball and lost the lead runner, or when a fielder doesn’t cleanly field a ball, but traps it near him and prevents runners from advancing further. The categories that don’t double-count things already in Plus/Minus are converted to runs above/below average in a similar way, then added in. Stuff like this is counted in the "rGFP" column on Fangraphs.

If you go to the simple DRS Plus/Minus it's higher over his career than UZR (+107 vs +63) but it starts to line up better and they agree on his good years vs bad years and it's mostly a matter of a few runs here and there over the course of two decades.
Last edited by haltz on May 18 21, 10:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Damn I made a bad assumption re: Goldy that he had stellar defense but you’re right.

My point remains on why is fWAR worse than bWAR? Because fWAR did give Pujols lots of credit as a Cardinal...what’s the “basically trash” comment coming from?

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haltz
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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

Post by haltz »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
May 18 21, 10:13 pm
Damn I made a bad assumption re: Goldy that he had stellar defense but you’re right.

My point remains on why is fWAR worse than bWAR? Because fWAR did give Pujols lots of credit as a Cardinal...what’s the “basically trash” comment coming from?
I don't know who said that.

you might've missed a big edit I made. You've got a big difference on fielding and the positional adjustment is -215 for fWAR vs -170 for bWAR. That's 10 wins right there and the gap is basically closed. I'm not saying that Pujols was 80 runs better at defense than UZR says, but DRS tries a little harder for 1B and either way he was very good.

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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

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The Angels, who by our estimate had a 39.5% chance at the outset of the season — their highest at that point since at least 2016 — had fallen to 23.5% heading into Monday, where now they’re down at 12.8%. Their odds of winning the AL West had fallen from 23.8% as of Opening Day to 9.8% before the injury to 4.4% now. While Ohtani will keep the team relevant for viewing purposes, Trout’s injury nearly guarantees another October without the game’s best player.
The Latest Mike Trout Bummer Could Produce His Longest Absence
by Jay Jaffe
May 19, 2021
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-latest- ... t-absence/

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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

Ohtani's got more WAR than Trout this year. And Ohtani pitches AND plays the field. Which is more GOAT-worthy?

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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

Post by G. Keenan »

Joe Shlabotnik wrote:
May 19 21, 6:08 pm
Ohtani's got more WAR than Trout this year. And Ohtani pitches AND plays the field. Which is more GOAT-worthy?
Ohtani is so fun to watch. I really hope Masyn Winn turns into a real two-way big leaguer for us.

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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

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The Angels have Trout and Ohtani doing what they’re doing, and they’re still 6 games below .500 and outscored by 46 runs.

A 38-year-old Yadier Molina has been our 2nd best hitter, and we are 7 games above .500.

Baseball can be weird.

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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

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Popeye_Card wrote:
May 19 21, 10:00 pm
The Angels have Trout and Ohtani doing what they’re doing, and they’re still 6 games below .500 and outscored by 46 runs.

A 38-year-old Yadier Molina has been our 2nd best hitter, and we are 7 games above .500.

Baseball can be weird.
Yeah the Angels can just never put both sides of their game together. For Trout's sake I would like to see them get to a Series some day; too bad they will probably lose the 2024 World Series to the 84 win St. Louis Cardinals.

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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

Post by Popeye_Card »

CardsofSTL wrote:
May 20 21, 10:49 am
Popeye_Card wrote:
May 19 21, 10:00 pm
The Angels have Trout and Ohtani doing what they’re doing, and they’re still 6 games below .500 and outscored by 46 runs.

A 38-year-old Yadier Molina has been our 2nd best hitter, and we are 7 games above .500.

Baseball can be weird.
Yeah the Angels can just never put both sides of their game together. For Trout's sake I would like to see them get to a Series some day; too bad they will probably lose the 2024 World Series to the 84 win St. Louis Cardinals.
With Yadier Molina rolling out in his wheelchair to embrace winning pitcher Adam Wainwright in celebration.

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Re: Michael Nelson Trout Appreciation Thread

Post by CardsofSTL »

Popeye_Card wrote:
May 20 21, 11:02 am
CardsofSTL wrote:
May 20 21, 10:49 am
Popeye_Card wrote:
May 19 21, 10:00 pm
The Angels have Trout and Ohtani doing what they’re doing, and they’re still 6 games below .500 and outscored by 46 runs.

A 38-year-old Yadier Molina has been our 2nd best hitter, and we are 7 games above .500.

Baseball can be weird.
Yeah the Angels can just never put both sides of their game together. For Trout's sake I would like to see them get to a Series some day; too bad they will probably lose the 2024 World Series to the 84 win St. Louis Cardinals.
With Yadier Molina rolling out in his wheelchair to embrace winning pitcher Adam Wainwright in celebration.
Don't forget World Series MVP DH Albert Pujols

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