Steve Adams's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams's NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on July 14. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

It's getting to their busy time of year, so there were a ton of NL Central questions. I included a bonus Q&A about a prediction on total trade activity and another on why the deadline is when it is.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 11030.html

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Who all do you see the Pirates trading: Frazier, Rodriguez, Anderson? Anyone else?

Steve Adams
All three of those guys, yes. Maybe Chris Stratton if there's a team willing to give up some quasi-useful piece for him. I like Jacob Stallings, but not sure there's a ton of contending clubs looking for catching upgrades.
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Do I smell a mega trade between the Padres and Rangers?

Steve Adams
It's the Padres, so you can probably expect a mega-trade with someone. Rangers, Twins, Cubs, etc.
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Odds "The Cubs Core" stay together past the deadline?

Steve Adams
I expect they'll at least move Bryant. And I doubt you're counting Kimbrel among the "core," but I feel he's likely to go as well.
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Do you think Adam Frazier can fetch a currently listed top 100 prospect?

Steve Adams
Maybe, but I think in general people tend to get a little too married to those rankings when they want to evaluate prospects this time of year. Top 100 lists are a snapshot in time, and especially with the draft having just happened, those rankings are now completely different.

When the Jays traded Stroman a couple years ago it was "They got a borderline top 100 guy in Anthony Kay and this Simeon Woods-Richardson guy, and that's it?!" even though in reality, Woods-Richardson's stock had risen considerably and he was already more well-regarded than Kay by some. I understand wanting to grade every trade as soon as it happens, but initial impressions based off weeks- or months-old rankings are going to be inherently flawed. The only rankings that really matter are the acquiring team's internal rankings of the players, and whether they're correct in that assessment of the prospects' future value.
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Why would the Pirates trade Frazier unless they are getting AT LEAST two top 100 prospects and one being a lot higher. He's good---they need to GET good players, not get rid of them. He's an all star----you better be getting at least one back.

Steve Adams
Because he'll turn 30 this offseason and become a free agent next winter. And if you extend him now, his best years (and the dollars spent on them) will go toward seasons when the rest of the roster isn't ready to contend.

Besides, I don't think the Pirates or any other club expect Frazier to keep up this production. That's not a knock on him -- he's a good player who I've said many times prior to 2021 is probably underrated -- it's just how he'll be viewed at the deadline.
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Any chance that the Reds could get Rogers from the Twins or another strong bullpen piece?

Steve Adams
If they wanted a $6MM reliever they shouldn't have non-tendered Archie Bradley.

I'm sure Reds fans get sick of me saying that and pointing it out, but this team wouldn't spend a combined $15MM on two good relievers (Raisel Iglesias and Bradley) this winter. Maybe with a bit more certainty regarding attendance, Bob Castellini is willing to spend now, but I have a hard time seeing them taking on meaningful salary.

I hope they prove me wrong. The Reds have a nice core and should be a better team than they've been. To me, it seems likelier they'll look at more affordable 'pen options.
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Bryant to Mets?

Steve Adams
Wouldn't shock me at all.
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Any chance the Twins buy a few pieces from teams with further to go in the standings, with an eye toward next year? I'm thinking maybe someone like John Means?

Steve Adams
I think the Twins, Mariners, Cardinals, Reds, Indians, Angels, Braves and Marlins are all candidates to add current MLB pieces controlled beyond 2021 even if they also sell off some short-term veterans. None of those teams are punting on 2022. I say every year at this time, but the straight "seller" label is only ever going to apply to a few teams.
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Does a team option have to be accepted by a team at the seasons end or can they accept it mid-season? (Thinking about Kimbrel’s option and how that affects his trade value.)

Steve Adams
They're all between three and five days after the conclusion of the World Series (the individual contracts specify the dates). The Cubs or any other team could proactively pick up the option, I suppose, but there's no point in doing so. You just open yourself up to the risk that Kimbrel blows out his arm in September and you're stuck paying him $16MM next year while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery.
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You expect White Sox to make a move? If so pitcher or bath or both?

Steve Adams
Yeah they're not going to sit back. I think with Eloy mending and Robert expected back in 2021, the OF isn't as great a need as 2B. Could see them adding some bullpen help, too, sure.
But second base is the spot for me, and Adam Frazier is the guy I've been saying they should be looking at since Madrigal went down.
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What $ and years does Javy Baez get in his next contract?

Steve Adams
He's really struggling of late, and the .284 OBP is brutal. I'm increasingly wondering whether he won't go the pillow contract route. He's already fallen out of the Correa/Story/Seager, with Semien overtaking him in terms of free-agent stock/earning power.
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Corbin Burnes for Jered Walsh. Who says no?

Steve Adams
Brewers.
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Why would the Cubs trade just Bryant? Shouldn't it be all or nothing with him, Rizzo, Baez, Davies and Pederson?

Steve Adams
I didn't mean to imply Bryant only would go. I think he's the likeliest of the "core" group. Pederson and Davies will absolutely be on the market, too, though Davies' value is pretty thin.
He's been durable, but he's going less than 5 IP per start with career-worst K% and BB%.
He's last in the Majors in K-BB%.

Not a great set of stats for a guy making $8.625MM.
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What do you see the Reds doing at deadline? Also do you think Castallonos opts out after the season?

Steve Adams
Looking for affordable SS and RP upgrades. Yes to Castellanos opting out.
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What are some moves the Red Sox can make to stay in contention?

Steve Adams
They have basically zero room with regard to the luxury tax, so it depends on whether they can convince a partner to take on all the money in a deal. They could use a rotation upgrade, some bullpen depth, second base/first base help.

If the front office can't get ownership approval to cross the tax line, I'd be trying to sell Richards' contract by attaching a prospect to him. New team could have two months to try to get him right and make an $8.5MM net decision on him if he turns it around. If not, they bought a decent prospect for a few million.

For a team like the Cardinals, Mariners, Twins, etc -- one of the ones who are flailing in '21 but hope to contend in '22 -- there are worse gambles to take.
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Do the Cards go dumpster diving for guys like Jordan Lyles just to stay afloat (don't see any scenario of us making a run this year) or do they sell what they can (Kim?) and potentially make a big splash in the off-season with all of the bad contracts coming off the books? What scenario do you see playing out for the Cardinals in the next 2-2.5 weeks?

Steve Adams
I don't think the Cardinals themselves know the answer to that yet. It'll depend on the first 10 games or so coming out of the break. Just based on their history, I think it'd be likelier that they add some low-end pieces, hope Flaherty gets back soon, and that they can make a late run.
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If Dombrowski gets the green light to take on all of Kimbrel's contract, can the Phillies get him without devastating the little quality they have on the farm?

Steve Adams
Even if they take all of the money on Kimbrel's contract, you're talking about roughly $5MM in remaining guaranteed salary. The Cubs don't owe him a thing in 2022, except a $1MM buyout. So the salary relief isn't all that great.

Picking up $6MM off the Cubs' hands isn't going to substitute the need to send quality minor league talent to get him.
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You’ll probably scoff at my question, but it seems by watching all/most of your Q&A this year you’re not a Reds fan or you are disgusted by their front office. Correct or am I missing something?

(Insert "Butt hurt!" sound-byte here.)

Steve Adams
I think a lot of Reds fans think this because I haven't been a fan of most of their recent offseasons, but I don't have anything against the team or even the front office. And I loved the way they put together their 2020 roster.

I think if ownership let Nick Krall just do what he wanted to do over the winter, they'd probably be pushing the Brewers a lot more closely for first place or even be in first themselves.
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Biggest name traded at the deadline?

Steve Adams
Kris Bryant, Trevor Story
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Lots of people thinking JD Davis would headline a Bryant return this offseason? Does that still seem possible? I know his defense stinks but he would be a solid DH when the NL starts using it next year.

Steve Adams
I didn't love the JD Davis suggestion this winter because Bryant's value was down and Davis has seemed to have gotten a pretty bad rap despite being a very, very good hitter. From 2019-20, he was a better hitter than Bryant by a good margin.

I look at Davis-for-Bryant as basically trading comparable offensive talents (Bryant is better, but you have to factor the long-term control) for a defensive upgrade -- and doing so by taking on a good bit of salary.

Maybe the Mets deem Davis expendable, but he's a solid player with three more years of control. I'd rather deal less-proven prospects, and the Cubs might prefer the longer window of control over their acquisitions in that scenario, too.

All that said, I could still see NY trading Davis. Doesn't have to be in a Bryant deal. Plenty of AL clubs would probably love to drop him into their 1B/3B/DH mix.
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If you were Nick Krall/the Reds, what affordable arm of these 3 would you like most: Ian Kennedy, Joakim Soria, or Dylan Floro?

Steve Adams
Kennedy, then Floro, then Soria.
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Best fit for Trevor story?

Steve Adams
A's. Brewers could move some infielders around, but the fit isn't as clean. White Sox could put him at 2B. Reds, but salary makes me skeptical it'd work. Yankees, but luxury tax is a concern for them.

Oakland is the cleanest fit to me. But as with Nelson Cruz (who I suggested for them earlier), it'll come down to what ownership is willing to spend.
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If you were to guess: how many trades happen between now and the 30th, and how many happen on the 31st alone?

Steve Adams
Deadline this year is the 30th
I'll say ... 16 trades on the day of the deadline.
Completely random, very-little-thought-put-into-it answer, ha. I'm already sitting here thinking "That might be low".
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What is the reason for this season's 7/30 deadline?

Steve Adams
7/31 is a Saturday, and the league doesn't want the deadline scheduled on a day where a bunch of day games would be scheduled. It's been on 8/1 and 7/30 in the past as well to avoid scheduling it on a weekend.
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CardsofSTL
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Re: Steve Adams's NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

I guess I never paid attention to the deadline floating around the weekend before; interesting tidbit.

I don't think he is all that low on how many trades happen on deadline day. I feel like there is going to be one or two big trades and then a few minor ones. Really don't expect a bunch of activity.

phins
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Re: Steve Adams's NL Central comments

Post by phins »

It's a weird year and no one wants to spend. I think a bunch of insignificant deals get done so ownership can pretend they tried for a lot of teams, but the net impact will be smaller.

My hope remains that the Cubs get hot and don't sell and then get nothing but a few comp picks.

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