Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on July 27. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

It's getting to their busy time of year, so he understandably didn't devote as much time as last week.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 11105.html

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Can Michael Chavis for Anthony Rizzo get it done?

Steve Adams
I'd want a better return for Rizzo.
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Is Kimbrel bringing back an Aroldis Chapman-type return? 0.49 ERA :wink:

Steve Adams
Broadly speaking, the Chapman return will go down as an outlier. Maybe we see another trade or two like it over the next 10 years, but the vast majority will be for much lesser returns. If you're hoping Kimbrel brings the Cubs CJ Abrams from San Diego or something, I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment.
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Adolfo and Stiever for Kimbrel?

Steve Adams
I know I said Kimbrel isn't bringing back a Chapman haul, but he should bring a lot more than that.
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The chances of the Padres moving Hosmer is about the same as the Cubs dumping their bad contract with Heyward.

Steve Adams
Eh, the Hosmer contract isn't as bad. It was front-loaded, so he's "only" earning $13MM per year the final three seasons.
It was also just a lower annual rate in the first place.
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How should I feel about Ben Cherington's moves the last few days? Are we looking at another 20 years below .500?

Steve Adams
In general, the Pirates' latest moves are more examples of why I think people get too caught up in Top 100 lists. That seems to be the only benchmark. "HOW MANY TOP 100s?" which is objectively silly. There are way more than 100 good prospects in baseball, and the difference between, say, the No. 75 prospect and the No. 150 prospect is probably marginal. There are going to be scouts and evaluators who think a guy that's commonly ranked 50th overall isn't even a future regular. Pirates fans were angry about the lack of Top 100 guys in the Starling Marte trade, and Liover Peguero (that trade's centerpiece) is now widely regarded as just that.
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Will the Rays give up Brujan for Bryant straight up?

Steve Adams
No, I don't think Bryant has that kind of value given his salary, lack of control, the inability to make a qualifying offer post-trade, and his recent slide at the plate.
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Are you expecting a quiet deadline for my Cardinals? I can't see them as buyers and they really have nothing to sell that will bring anything more than a lottery ticket minor leaguer. Am I missing something?

Steve Adams
I don't think they'll do absolutely nothing, but no, I don't think it's going to be a super-aggressive deadline for them one way or the other.
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Tucker Barnhart to Seattle as long term catching help?

Steve Adams
He's only controlled through 2022, so he's not really long-term help. And they just called up Cal Raleigh.
Stepping back, though, I can easily see Barnhart moving even if the Reds want to contend. They probably won't pick up his 2022 option since Stephenson is up and hitting well.
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Will Castellanos opt out?

Steve Adams
Yeah, I expect him to.
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Does a Zack Davies trade get a better or worse haul than a Tyler Anderson trade?

Steve Adams
Davies costs 4x as much, salary-wise, and is having a worse year. The ERAs are comparable, but everything else about Anderson looks better (K%, BB%, hard-hit%, swinging-strike%, etc.)
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