How good is Yadier Molina, really?

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heyzeus
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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by heyzeus »

haltz wrote:
August 27 21, 11:58 pm
Popeye_Card wrote:
August 24 21, 6:18 pm
Sure, but most of these “media darlings” created their own legends. Giles didn’t get many cracks at the postseason, but he didn’t really distinguish himself. Martin had quite a few chances, didn’t do a whole lot. Molina and especially Ortiz built their fame.
I remember MGL saying on this board that he was recommending the Cardinals go after Giles instead of Juan Encarnacion but they didn't listen to him. He would've gotten a crack at the postseason that year and maybe in that parallel universe Aaron Miles doesn't try and kill him with a foul ball.

Speaking of Gileses and careers that ended early, Marcus put up an 8 WAR season and was out of baseball by age 30.
And speaking of Juan Encarnacion and things going badly…

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

Superorganism wrote:
August 28 21, 2:49 pm
Buster Olney has mentioned on podcasts that he’s not the only voter who thinks Yadi is a first ballot guy. And I think that sentiment grows by the year.
If I was going to bet, I'd bet first ballot. Assuming no bad publicity comes out in the five years between retirement and the vote.

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sighyoung
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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by sighyoung »

heyzeus wrote:
August 28 21, 3:04 pm
haltz wrote:
August 27 21, 11:58 pm
Popeye_Card wrote:
August 24 21, 6:18 pm
Sure, but most of these “media darlings” created their own legends. Giles didn’t get many cracks at the postseason, but he didn’t really distinguish himself. Martin had quite a few chances, didn’t do a whole lot. Molina and especially Ortiz built their fame.
I remember MGL saying on this board that he was recommending the Cardinals go after Giles instead of Juan Encarnacion but they didn't listen to him. He would've gotten a crack at the postseason that year and maybe in that parallel universe Aaron Miles doesn't try and kill him with a foul ball.

Speaking of Gileses and careers that ended early, Marcus put up an 8 WAR season and was out of baseball by age 30.
And speaking of Juan Encarnacion and things going badly…
Off the field, as well as on, apparently . . . https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/321 ... g-daughter

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

As Yadi is heralded for counting and compiler/longevity stats, he should be penalized for being an awful hitter.

Posey is such a good hitter. Yadi is not. And Posey plays good defense too. Martin as well. A lot of Yadi’s compiler stats come from Cardinals finding jack [expletive] for backups.

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haltz
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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

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I think Buster Posey is a no-brainer, but that aside what makes Yadi an awful hitter? Maybe compared to HOF catchers but even then he had a decent peak.

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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

haltz wrote:
August 29 21, 2:15 pm
I think Buster Posey is a no-brainer, but that aside what makes Yadi an awful hitter? Maybe compared to HOF catchers but even then he had a decent peak.
Below average. I think catcher has been lacking talent for many years until recently. (Hyper recently with all the good ones in the pipeline) Realmuto and Smith can rake and play great defense. Yadi has largely been one dimensional. Ozzie level at times for his position and that’s X-ballot worthy still. But I still argue Russell Martin is just as worthy if Yadi The Accumulator is.

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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by Popeye_Card »

I’m not sure what you are even trying to argue. We all recognize that Martin and Kendall have about as many career fWAR as Yadi. Yadi has 9 gold gloves, 4 platinum gloves, 2 World Series rings, 4 pennants, and rightly or wrongly is considered possibly the best defensive catcher of all time. Martin has 1 gold glove. Kendall has…none of these things. Posey has 3 rings, an MVP, and a RotY award.

It is the Hall of Fame not the Hall of WAR. Posey and Molina are likely getting in. Martin and Kendall are likely not. Maybe someday Fangraphs will open their own Hall that I’m sure will be well visited.

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haltz
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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by haltz »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
August 29 21, 4:33 pm
haltz wrote:
August 29 21, 2:15 pm
I think Buster Posey is a no-brainer, but that aside what makes Yadi an awful hitter? Maybe compared to HOF catchers but even then he had a decent peak.
Below average. I think catcher has been lacking talent for many years until recently. (Hyper recently with all the good ones in the pipeline) Realmuto and Smith can rake and play great defense. Yadi has largely been one dimensional. Ozzie level at times for his position and that’s X-ballot worthy still. But I still argue Russell Martin is just as worthy if Yadi The Accumulator is.
Even if you want to compare him to all hitters, he's about average for his career and had a ten year peak that was above average and a five year peak that was well above average. Of course that's not really fair since he plays catcher where the average wOBA is about .300 and he's a career .320.

Russell Martin is easily a top-30 catcher of all time, maybe top-20. He doesn't have the rings or the accolades like Yadi does, but I think those are the things that push Yadi way over the top. On paper without pitch framing neither are a slam dunk.
[SHOW]

Code: Select all

                                        WAR  WAR7 JAWS WAR/162 oWAR dWAR OPS+        
1                      Johnny Bench HOF 75.1 47.2 61.2     5.6 65.7 19.7  126     
2                       Gary Carter HOF 70.1 48.4 59.3     4.9 56.3 26.1  115    
3                    Ivan Rodriguez HOF 68.7 39.8 54.3     4.4 54.5 29.6  106    
4                      Carlton Fisk HOF 68.4 37.5 53.0     4.4 66.3 17.0  117     
5                       Mike Piazza HOF 59.5 43.1 51.3     5.0 66.4  1.5  143         
6                        Yogi Berra HOF 59.6 38.1 48.8     4.6 56.4  9.2  125      
7                             Joe Mauer 55.2 39.0 47.1     4.8 53.0  3.0  124    
8                       Bill Dickey HOF 56.5 35.5 46.0     5.1 52.1 10.2  127           
      Avg of 16 HOFers at this position 53.8 34.8 44.3                                                                                                                                                                                 4.7
9                    Gabby Hartnett HOF 55.9 30.8 43.4     4.6 48.6 13.3  126          
10                  Mickey Cochrane HOF 49.9 36.6 43.3     5.5 53.9  0.7  129         
11                      Ted Simmons HOF 50.3 34.8 42.6     3.3 53.6  5.2  118    
12                       Thurman Munson 46.1 37.0 41.5     5.2 43.2 11.9  116    
13                          Gene Tenace 46.8 35.0 40.9     4.9 47.6  1.8  136   
14                         Buster Posey 44.2 36.6 40.4     5.3 40.2  9.7  129         
15                       Buck Ewing HOF 48.0 30.7 39.4     5.9 42.5  9.7  129    
16                         Bill Freehan 44.8 33.7 39.2     4.1 43.3 12.0  112     
17                   Roy Campanella HOF 41.8 35.0 38.4     38.7 8.8  4.7  126     
18                         Wally Schang 47.9 27.8 37.8     4.2 47.6  6.5  117     
19                         Jorge Posada 42.7 32.6 37.7     3.8 48.6  2.6  121       
20                  Roger Bresnahan HOF 42.0 30.4 36.2     4.7 42.4  6.5  126 
21                        Jason Kendall 41.7 30.4 36.0     3.2 40.8 13.9   95      
22                        Yadier Molina 41.9 28.7 35.3     3.2 28.6 26.3   97       
23                       Darrell Porter 40.8 29.1 34.9     3.7 39.8 10.6  113        
24                         Jim Sundberg 40.5 28.7 34.6     3.3 28.7 25.3   90       
25                      Charlie Bennett 38.8 30.1 34.4     5.9 27.5 17.5  119      
26                        Lance Parrish 39.5 28.4 34.0     3.2 36.0 15.3  106      
27                       Russell Martin 38.8 27.3 33.1     3.7 33.1 16.5  101   
If you want to give credit for framing Molina, Martin, Posey and McCann all end up with ~55 career WAR on FG. This isn't really a fair comparison because it's likely that Bench and Carter among others were great in this regard but we don't have the data. We do know that a couple of players like Posada and Kendall were terriblle, at least at the end of their careers. Eg, Kendall is at 37 fWAR and Molina is at 55. Huge difference compared to that BRef list.

ETA you can make the argument that Yadi should edge Posey especially in value thanks to the fact that he played so many more games before 2008 when framing runs are first calculated. Also as an interesting coincidence, him and Ozzie Smith have nearly identical defensive value on Fangraphs at right around +375 over their career (runs saved + position).

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by Joe Shlabotnik »

That video would have been damn near perfect if he could have fit in Molina powning Minor League Guy this spring.


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Re: How good is Yadier Molina, really?

Post by Jocephus »

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Which catchers make the HOF among Martin, Mauer, McCann, Molina, and Posey?

Dan Szymborski: Molina, Mauer, Buster

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