Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Mark Polishuk that occurred on October 16. It was the first of 2 weekend chats from Mark.

A lot of good questions this time, especially about the Schildt situation. I included a bonus Q&A about expansion and another one explaining the concept of an opener.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-11656.html

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Should I be worried as a Cards fan that the “philosophical differences” mean the front office philosophy will be to not sign one of the free agent shortstops or a legit starting pitcher which are both needed?

Mark Polishuk
That's not really something that the manager would necessarily have to be worried about, so I doubt that's the root of the Shildt firing. It's an odd situation, however... feels like there's a lot more to be revealed with that story.
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I'm all for rewarding your own guys, but if St. Louis picks an "in-house" guy, with zero experience, they don't want a manager, they want a puppet. Jeff Albert is terrible, and why are they protecting him?

Mark Polishuk
That's the odd thing about this Shildt firing... Shildt *was* that in-house, longtime organizational figure.

Not to say that Shildt was in any way a front office puppet, to be clear.
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Is this the year the Brewers trade Hader? He is probably the best bet the Brewers have for finding a quality bat or two.

Mark Polishuk
If the offer is right, the Brewers would move him. But that offer would have to be a true premium, as even with Hader's rising price tag, he is still such a valuable weapon out of their bullpen.
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How do you see Brewers upgrading their offense this offseason?

Mark Polishuk
Re-signing Garcia seems doubtful in my mind, so I would guess their move would be to find the next Avisail, i.e. another guy who might break out with a change of scenery and who could be signed for a relative discount.

A lot of their positions seem locked in....Adames, Urias, Wong, Yelich, and Tellez as the top 1B option. I would say Cain, but I wonder if he can be counted on as anything more than a part-time player.
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Chances someone signs Michael Lorenzen to start games?

Mark Polishuk
Lorenzen is going into free agency looking for a chance to start, as he said this week: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/ ... arter.html

I think any number of teams would be willing to give him that opportunity. Maybe some kind of incentive-loaded deal based on how many innings he pitches, or how many appearances he makes as a starter or as a reliever. With these incentives in mind, Lorenzen might certainly find a multi-year contract, since a team always has the fallback of making him a reliever again.
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Do you think Arenado will leverage his opt out to get Story in a Cards uni?

Mark Polishuk
Arenado has already gone on record as saying he'll be sticking with his Cardinals contract, so no. Plus, he'd have to make his option decision before free agency opens.
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Odds the Cubs move Willy C and/or Kyle?

Mark Polishuk
Moving Hendricks when the team is so desperate for pitching would be a tough move, but I can't believe the Cubs would pass if they got a great offer.

Contreras I can see being dealt more readily than Hendricks.
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Besides the 5 suggested managers other online reporters have named (Marmol, Shumaker, Clapp, Warner, Holiday) who are some other options for new Cards skipper?

Mark Polishuk
Hard to say, since you'd think any number of names would be attracted to that job opening. But, one would also suspect that the front office wouldn't have made that surprising firing without already having someone in mind as a replacement.
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I would love to see Matt Olsen on the brewers, what would it cost for them to get him?? I would think it would start around Ashby/Houser, thoughts??

Mark Polishuk
The Brewers don't have the deepest farm system in the world, so I'm not sure they'd have the chips to win a bidding war for Olson. The A's would want wayyyy more of a centerpiece than just Ashby, for instance.
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”Philosophical differences”. Is that GM talk for: we want you to fire a coach or two?

Mark Polishuk
Maybe Mozeliak is a big Plato guy and Shildt strongly favors Kant?
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What kind of market is Eduardo Escobar looking at? Also, what teams would be interested in him? Tigers? Mariners? Marlins?

Mark Polishuk
Escobar has one of the under-the-radar largest markets of any free agent. He can still hit, he can play second or third base (or some first base), and he won't be overly expensive. Any number of contenders could look at him as a Plan B if they can't land a bigger infielder, and any number of pseudo-contenders could use him as an upgrade.
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Is Joe Espada an automatic to be the Cardinals next manager? He has a pretty long history with Molina and analytics.

Mark Polishuk
Espada would be an interesting hire, he's often mentioned as future manager and he has come close to being hired in the past.
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What's the market on Kwang-Hyun Kim? Is he going back to Korea, or does someone give him a deal? From the outside, his stats look good for at least a #4 in many rotations.

Mark Polishuk
No word on whether or not Kim is looking to remain in MLB, but assuming he stays here, he'll get some looks. His advanced metrics aren't great, however, so between those numbers and his injuries, a two-year contract might be his ceiling.
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I know managing with analytics is more confusing than it was 45 years ago, but should Yadi Molina be considered for Cards manager? And why not hold on to Schildt for one more year and then hire Yadi to manage for 2023 (assuming he wants to do it)?

Mark Polishuk
The idea of a player/manager is cool, but I'm not sure a catcher (with everything else on his plate for any given game) is the ideal pick for such a role, if it could even be done properly in modern baseball.
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Your best guess for the next expansion year? Fingers crossed that Portland is getting a team in my lifetime.

Mark Polishuk
Maybe not expansion, if the Rays give up this Tampa/Montreal idea and just move.
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Could you please explain the thinking behind the "opener" strategy? I was surprised Knebel started for the Dodgers rather than Urias, but clearly it worked. This seems to be a growing trend, but what's the reasoning for doing so?

Mark Polishuk
The general idea behind the opener is to deploy a good reliever who matches up well with the opponent's 1-2-3 hitters (i.e. usually their best hitters). The idea is that why save a key bullpen arm for later in the game when the other team can more easily adjust, when you can use that reliever right away when you know the situation.

Obviously using an opener can blow up quickly if that reliever is having an off-night, but for a team like Tampa who has an endless supply of hard-throwing relievers, the strategy has worked more often than not.
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