Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on November 16. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

A lot of questions during his 75-minute chat this week, so enjoy. No bonus Q&As this time.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 11870.html

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Reds going into yet another rebuild?

Steve Adams
It certainly seems as though they're stepping back and cutting payroll. Perhaps they'll try to thread the needle by focusing on some MLB-ready prospects, though. They have more young talent in place than last time they tore down (because they waited too long last time). India, Stephenson, Winker, Barrero, Senzel... it's a nice group (assuming Winker isn't so close to free agency that they explore moving him, too).

Greene and Lodolo on the way, pitching-wise. Even if next year's a down year for them, they don't seem to need a 3-4 year rebuilding effort.
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Does 5/95 land Nick Castellanos?

Steve Adams
We predicted 5/115 on him, but it's plausible the market pressure only ratchets things up to 95, sure.
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Darkhorse team for Marcus Semien?

Steve Adams
Tigers? People seem pretty heavy on the Tigers/Correa connection, but it's plenty plausible to me that they prefer not to throw down $400MM+ in their return to offseason spending.

Phillies, Astros, Rangers, Cardinals are all in there. Twins, if you want a longer shot than that, I suppose. They liked him last year, but his stock was lower then and they'd have been buying low as opposed to buying with his value at its apex.
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Castillo and Suarez to Seattle for Kelenic and Hancock. Who hangs up?

Steve Adams
Mariners
Jerry Dipoto said like seven days ago "there's no scenario" where he trades the very top prospects in his system. I suppose Kelenic has technically exhausted his "prospect" eligibility, but he's still in that bucket.
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Is Bryan Reynolds truly available and should he be?

Steve Adams
He's "available" in the sense that the Pirates are going to listen to any and all offers on him. I don't think he's "available" in the sense that there's any real motivation to move him. This isn't an A's/Chapman/Olson or a Reds/Castillo/Gray situation. Pirates will listen out of due diligence, but the asking price would justifiably be huge.
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How long do the Cubs put up with Happ? Inconsistency is the name of the game. Need to trade him when he's hot.

Steve Adams
Any team acquiring him is going to know he runs hot and cold. It's true that his value would be higher if he were mashing heading into the deadline next year and that if he were hitting .200 with a .260 OBP it'd be nonexistent, but any team is going to know it's getting a useful but flawed player who's prone to huge slumps.
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Are the Cubs a legit contender for Corey Seager?

Steve Adams
I don't believe the Cubs are a legit contender for any high-priced free agent.

I'd have bought them as a possible suitor for E-Rod and could see them going after a Jon Gray or DeSclafani type to help stabilize the rotation, but anything beyond a three- or four-year deal is a bridge too far for me.
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Do you think that Flaherty will be looking at the Berrios deal as the framework for an extension?

Steve Adams
They're in different service brackets and Berrios has been far more durable but less effective at peak. It's a data point if Flaherty goes into next offseason without an extension, but it's not hugely relevant right now.
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Frankie Montas for Edmundo Sosa a solid framework?

Steve Adams
I think that overstates Sosa's value.
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Let's say the Pirates had unlimited $$ to spend this offseason (I know, hold your laughter). What type of free agent from this class, if any, would fit in with the profile of a rebuilding team with a window approaching in the next couple seasons, but very much not next year?

Steve Adams
Seiya Suzuki? In his prime, fills a need, would probably be signable at a lower AAV than comparable players (e.g. Avisail Garcia) who have MLB experience.
Otherwise, hey, Carlos Correa's 27 next year. If the money's no object, sure, sign Correa.
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What does a Marcus Stroman contract look like.. maybe the Cardinals?

Steve Adams
I like him at 100-115MM or so over five years.
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Give me a realistic trade scenario where the Padres are rid of Hosmer.

Steve Adams
I wrote about this a couple months ago for our Front Office subscribers. There aren't a lot of great matches, but loose frameworks (with other pieces involved)... Hosmer/Myers for Patrick Corbin; Hosmer/Aaron Hicks; Hosmer/Jason Heyward.

Various levels of cash and/or prospects would have to be added depending on the scenario, of course.
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Does Josh Hader finally get traded this winter?

Steve Adams
I think this is the optimal time to trade him, yes. I never bought into it that much when Hader was making under $6MM, but he's going to jump to $10-11MM or something in that range and is controlled only through 2023. His value is peaking this winter, and it happens at a time when the Brewers' payroll is reaching record levels anyhow.

There's a coalescence there that makes me feel he's likelier to be traded than not.
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Should the Pirates trade Jacob Stallings?

Steve Adams
Should be open to it. 32-year-old catcher with three years of club control and one of the best gloves in all of baseball. There'd be interest, and he'll be 34 with free agency around the corner by the time the Pirates have any real hope of turning things around.
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Where does Luke Voit end up?

Steve Adams
Again depends on the NL DH a bit, but any of the Rangers, Twins, A's, Mariners, D-backs, Cubs, Brewers or Nats feel within the realm of possibility.
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Cardinal more likely to get traded, Knizner or Dejong?

Steve Adams
DeJong if I'm picking between those two.
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CardsofSTL
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

If 5/100 gets the Cardinals Stroman I have no idea why there's not been a press conference yet.

Spider John
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Spider John »

CardsofSTL wrote:
November 16 21, 6:21 pm
If 5/100 gets the Cardinals Stroman I have no idea why there's not been a press conference yet.
Won't five years scare them off?

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MrCrowesGarden
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by MrCrowesGarden »

9 figures scares them off. They’ll gladly do 5/99.999

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

Spider John wrote:
November 16 21, 8:39 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 16 21, 6:21 pm
If 5/100 gets the Cardinals Stroman I have no idea why there's not been a press conference yet.
Won't five years scare them off?
Shouldn't. He'll cost more than that in three years.

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MinorLeagueGuy
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by MinorLeagueGuy »

CardsofSTL wrote:
November 16 21, 6:21 pm
If 5/100 gets the Cardinals Stroman I have no idea why there's not been a press conference yet.
Exactly. Nostradamus sees a few teams getting in on him, the later it gets. 5 years is an easy bet. Someone will add a 6th with an option. I could see it going to $125 as well.

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