Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

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CardsofSTL
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Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

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MLB has told teams that outfielder Seiya Suzuki will be posted tomorrow morning. That will open a 30-day window for teams to negotiate with him, with the deadline being 4:00 pm CT on December 22. If he doesn’t sign a contract by then, he will return to the Hiroshima Carp, his team in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

It was reported weeks ago that Suzuki was going to be posted, but the official timing of the posting is significant. The Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA is set to expire at 11:59 pm ET on December 1. Due to the fact that it seems unlikely a deal will come together by then, the expectation around the industry has been that December 2 will see the implementation of a lockout and transaction freeze that would last until a new agreement is reached.
He's a five-time All-Star in Nippon Professional Baseball with a career .315/.415/.571 slash line who boasts a well-rounded game. In addition to posting above-average exit velocities, he's walked more than he's struck out in two of the past three years. (In 2020, the exception, he finished with one fewer walk than strikeout.) Suzuki also has a high-grade arm that should allow him to make an impact on defense. The one blemish in his game is that he's not a particularly skilled base stealer. Teams will gladly overlook that.
You might wonder if Suzuki's free agency will play out the way Shohei Ohtani's did a few winters ago, wherein teams couldn't offer him more than what remained in their international free-agent bonus pools. The answer is no.

Those wage-suppressing rules apply only to players that MLB deems "amateurs" based on two qualifications: they're younger than 25 years old and they haven't accrued at least six seasons of professional baseball in a league recognized by MLB. Whereas Ohtani was only 23 years old with appearances in parts of five NPB seasons when he came over; Suzuki is 27 with appearances in parts of nine NPB seasons.
Most teams could use an outfielder like Suzuki. Three of the teams who figure to have the most interest in Suzuki (as well as a realistic chance of signing him) include the Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, and San Francisco Giants.
Mariners

There seems to be a clear and real interest from the Mariners to sign Suzuki, who has put up some of the best numbers in Japanese baseball the last few years. In 2021, he slashed .319/.436/.640 with 38 home runs, and even had more walks than strikeouts in over 500 plate appearances. Those numbers are coming in a league where the competition is lesser than that of Major League Baseball, but they are still impressive.

Even if Suzuki can’t put up the MVP type numbers he put up in Japan for the Mariners, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Suzuki can still be a well above-average player for the Mariners. On top of his offensive prowess, Suzuki is also a versatile defender. He is listed to be a third baseman, shortstop, and corner outfielder. It is expected that the Mariners would want to use him as a corner outfielder, but the positional flexibility is definitely a plus.
Rangers

Texas, of course, has lineage when it comes to NPB, having signed pitchers Yu Darvish and more recently, Kohei Arihara. The Rangers were also interested in pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano last winter and they were also in on Shohei Ohtani a few winters ago before he signed with the LA Angels.

Suzuki’s power would be welcome in a Texas lineup that finished last in the American League in home runs by right-handed batters. In fairness, Texas really needs left-handed hitters to help balance out its righty dominant lineup, but as Morosi correctly points out, the Rangers just need offense, and power especially, all around.

Giants

Suzuki, a right-handed hitting outfielder, fits two major needs for the Giants offseason. 2021 saw the Giants use a rotating combination of LaMonte Wade Jr., Darin Ruf, Mike Yastrzemski, Alex Dickerson, Steven Duggar, Kris Bryant and Austin Slater in the outfield. While both Wade Jr. and Ruf had excellent seasons, Wade Jr. is a left-handed bat and Ruf is a platoon player. Both Yastrzemski and Dickerson underperformed (106 wRC+ and 97 wRC+, respectively), unable to find their peak swings. Duggar is more known for his defense than his bat, Bryant is no longer on the team, and Slater doesn’t have the same pop or bat ability as Suzuki. Suzuki would immediately insert a superstar into a significant part of the Giants offense. His being right-handed would also give Kapler more flexibility in matchups, as the Giants last year frequently would field teams of almost all left-handed bats except Posey, who is now no longer on the team either.

Fangraphs predicts that Suzuki’s contract will be somewhere in the ballpark of 4 years/$40 million. For a big-market team like the Giants that has money to spend, that is a highly affordable contract for an impact bat that could strengthen their lineup as they try to improve on their 107-win season.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

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If the Mariners are able to grab Suzuki they may put themselves over the top in that division. Think he is likely ending up a Giant though.

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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

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CardsofSTL wrote:
November 21 21, 2:52 pm
If the Mariners are able to grab Suzuki they may put themselves over the top in that division. Think he is likely ending up a Giant though.
A lot of their wins were gamed. Their Pythag shows this. Seager loss will be felt. I’m not sure pitchers can repeat.

They have some work still. They need a dominant front end starter and an infield masher still. I think OF is set.

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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 21 21, 2:56 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 21 21, 2:52 pm
If the Mariners are able to grab Suzuki they may put themselves over the top in that division. Think he is likely ending up a Giant though.
A lot of their wins were fake. Seager loss will be felt. I’m not sure pitchers can repeat.

They have some work still. They need a dominant front end starter and an infield masher still. I think OF is set.
Fake wins? I'm no stathead so I guess I don't know that one. fWIN?

The A's are taking a step back and I don't think the Astros will be as good especially if they don't retain Correa. The division is there for the taking; kind of like the NL Central.

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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

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CardsofSTL wrote:
November 21 21, 2:58 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 21 21, 2:56 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 21 21, 2:52 pm
If the Mariners are able to grab Suzuki they may put themselves over the top in that division. Think he is likely ending up a Giant though.
A lot of their wins were fake. Seager loss will be felt. I’m not sure pitchers can repeat.

They have some work still. They need a dominant front end starter and an infield masher still. I think OF is set.
Fake wins? I'm no stathead so I guess I don't know that one. fWIN?

The A's are taking a step back and I don't think the Astros will be as good especially if they don't retain Correa. The division is there for the taking; kind of like the NL Central.
I edited my post right away. I just mean the wins were inflated way over Pythag. I don’t know that I put a ton of stock into the record and Seager loss is significant. They have some off-season work beyond this move.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

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Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 21 21, 3:09 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 21 21, 2:58 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 21 21, 2:56 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 21 21, 2:52 pm
If the Mariners are able to grab Suzuki they may put themselves over the top in that division. Think he is likely ending up a Giant though.
A lot of their wins were fake. Seager loss will be felt. I’m not sure pitchers can repeat.

They have some work still. They need a dominant front end starter and an infield masher still. I think OF is set.
Fake wins? I'm no stathead so I guess I don't know that one. fWIN?

The A's are taking a step back and I don't think the Astros will be as good especially if they don't retain Correa. The division is there for the taking; kind of like the NL Central.
I edited my post right away. I just mean the wins were inflated way over Pythag. I don’t know that I put a ton of stock into the record and Seager loss is significant. They have some off-season work beyond this move.
Was only joking about the fake wins.

You might be right. I still think they are looking better than in previous seasons.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

Post by CardsofSTL »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 21 21, 2:56 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 21 21, 2:52 pm
If the Mariners are able to grab Suzuki they may put themselves over the top in that division. Think he is likely ending up a Giant though.
A lot of their wins were gamed. Their Pythag shows this. Seager loss will be felt. I’m not sure pitchers can repeat.

They have some work still. They need a dominant front end starter and an infield masher still. I think OF is set.
Ray gets them closer.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

CardsofSTL wrote:
November 29 21, 4:46 pm
Big Amoco Sign wrote:
November 21 21, 2:56 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 21 21, 2:52 pm
If the Mariners are able to grab Suzuki they may put themselves over the top in that division. Think he is likely ending up a Giant though.
A lot of their wins were gamed. Their Pythag shows this. Seager loss will be felt. I’m not sure pitchers can repeat.

They have some work still. They need a dominant front end starter and an infield masher still. I think OF is set.
Ray gets them closer.
Yes agreed. It’s what they needed. Frazier replaces Seager too.

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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

Post by Jocephus »

Projecting Seiya Suzuki
by Dan Szymborski
February 15, 2022
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-seiya-suzuki/

the money shot
[SHOW]
Projected in a neutral park, ZiPS has Suzuki as a better-than-league-average corner outfielder but one who projects below All-Star levels without another step forward

ZiPS suggests a five-year, $83 million contract for Suzuki, though some of that wouldn’t be part of his contract, with a chunk instead going to the Carp as a posting fee. (Based on the ZiPS’ projected contract, the posting fee would be about $14 million under MLB’s current arrangement with NPB, and I swear, I didn’t change Suzuki’s cut to $69 million in order to make that joke.)

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Seya Suzuki Posting Nov 22

Post by CardsofSTL »

Still think he's going to be a Mariner.

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