Mad Max to Mets..

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Jayramball04
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Mad Max to Mets..

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Last edited by Jayramball04 on November 29 21, 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Superorganism
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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

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Here’s hoping pond scum crash and burn.

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Jayramball04
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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

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:cry:

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

Post by CardsofSTL »

Makes the Mets the favorite in their division I would think. As long as the rest of the team doesn't implode.

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go birds
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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

Post by go birds »

CardsofSTL wrote:
November 29 21, 12:24 pm
Makes the Mets the favorite in their division I would think. As long as the rest of the team doesn't implode.
well it *is* the mets

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

Post by CardsofSTL »

go birds wrote:
November 29 21, 12:27 pm
CardsofSTL wrote:
November 29 21, 12:24 pm
Makes the Mets the favorite in their division I would think. As long as the rest of the team doesn't implode.
well it *is* the mets
That's true...and they have done it before. But deGrom/Scherzer is pretty hard to beat when they're right. I do think there is some health concerns for deGrom; he hasn't seemed as sturdy. Scherzer is getting older but based on last season he's got plenty in the tank. Like everything we'll have to wait and see.

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Magneto2.0
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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

Post by Magneto2.0 »

CardsofSTL wrote:
November 29 21, 12:24 pm
Makes the Mets the favorite in their division I would think. As long as the rest of the team doesn't implode.
Ehhh. I wouldn't go that far. They finished 12 back last season. They still need some help. I'd put them second in the East at the moment.

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Popeye_Card
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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

Post by Popeye_Card »

Well that's...more than I thought it would take. Now the question is, could he potentially be worth it?

Assuming the value of an fWAR over the next 3 seasons being ~$8.5MM, Scherzer would need to be worth ~15 fWAR over the 3 years. Which seems like a tall task for a 37-39 year old pitcher, but it is not without precedent. Here is the fWAR leaderboard for pitchers from ages 37-40 (4 seasons) since the mound was lowered:

Randy Johnson 30.5
Phil Niekro 23.0
Gaylord Perry 20.5
Steve Carlton 20.0
John Smoltz 18.3
Roger Clemens 18.1
Nolan Ryan 18.0
David Wells 16.2
Curt Schilling 15.1
Don Sutton 14.2

As expected, the list is full of HOF'ers and near-HOF'ers which we can safely include Scherzer in that group. We can probably remove Clemens as a comp for PED purposes. Niekro was a completely different type of pitcher. Particularly at that stage of their careers Perry, Wells, and Sutton were different types of pitchers. One of Smoltz's seasons was still as a reliever, but his real value came as a starter so we can still include him. That leaves us with Johnson, Carlton, Smoltz, Ryan, and Schilling as reasonable comps.

Randy Johnson is obviously a best-case type scenario. But even as good as Scherzer has been, he hasn't been quite as good as Johnson was in his 30's. However he is a pretty good comp as a high velocity, high-K, low WHIP SP. If Scherzer can replicate how Johnson was able to hold his value through his late 30's, he'll be worth the contract.

Carlton's value came primarily though the sheer number of innings he was still pitching at a high level. Schilling had elite control that Scherzer will probably never be at that level. The rest are pretty reasonable outcomes for Scherzer at this stage of his career, which would make him approximately worth his deal if he can stay healthy. Keep in mind that even within this elite group of comps, only Johnson and Smoltz had three consecutive years of 5+ fWAR.

Long story short, if you subscribe to the theory that you should pay X dollars per "win", Scherzer has a reasonable shot at being worth this hefty contract even at his age. Especially if you give some bonus credit for likely value he'll provide as a postseason starter. That said, if I were running a team and handing out contracts, I'd likely be aiming for more of a 50th percentile probability of being worth the contract, but that's also maybe why I'm not running a team.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

CardsofSTL wrote:
November 29 21, 12:24 pm
Makes the Mets the favorite in their division I would think. As long as the rest of the team doesn't implode.
You aren't wrong that they'll be preseason darlings again.

I still can't tell what they'll be. Scherzer replaces Stroman essentially. Marte buys them a win or two extra. I'm not convinced Canha and Escobar get much more WAR than Baez/Conforto/Villar did.

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Re: Mad Max to Mets..

Post by Gashouse »

I have always rooted for Scherzer, except when against the Cards.

Some people root for or against laundry, no matter who the player is.

I’m not sure how I’ll land on this whenever they start playing again.

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