Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Anthony Franco's NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Anthony Franco that occurred on December 22. (You can find him on Twitter at @affranco10 if you really want to ask him something.)

A lot of questions answered rapid-fire style. I included a bonus Q&A about updated lockout end date odds, a negotiating point in the CBA discussions, and yet another about analytics feeding a new strategy.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-chat ... 12108.html

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Who do you think the Padres will get in free agency?

Anthony Franco
I like them as a fit for Castellanos on paper, although there hasn't been a ton of clarity about whether their spending capacity's topped out after all the moves last winter.
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Relief pitcher trade candidates when lockout ends?

Anthony Franco
Wrote about David Bednar and Chris Stratton of the Pirates a couple weeks ago. Bednar probably doesn't go anywhere ultimately, but I think they should be open to it at least.
Cole Sulser in Baltimore, Taylor Rogers and Caleb Thielbar with the Twins.
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Is there a realistic chance Trevor Story settles for a short term deal?

Anthony Franco
Idk, like 10% maybe? I think he'll still do fine. Particularly with teams like the Astros, Cubs, Yankees reportedly hesitant to go ten years for Correa, Story at five feels like a nice "fallback".
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The Brewers have been to playoffs 4 years in a row and can’t get over the hump. Who should they be looking for to make them a favorite this year?

Anthony Franco
I don't think they really see it this way. They went cold for a few games against the Braves. It happens to every team throughout the year, but when it happens in the playoffs, it's a season-ender.
That said, I expect them to continue to look for offense, even after the Renfroe deal. I like Nelson Cruz there assuming an NL DH.
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Do Reds, Cubs, Pirates have any chance of competing with top 2 teams next 2-3 years?

Anthony Franco
Cincinnati seems likeliest to me of that group. Their existing core is still pretty good. It's a tough balance since ownership doesn't seem to want to double down and invest around the margins.
But a core group of Winker, India, Stephenson, Votto and the top of that rotation being a contender? Yeah, I buy it.
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What moves will the Cardinals make? They need a LH bat to go with the 2 switch hitters. Do you think they will spend to get Schwarber and rotate him in at DH? Before Matz, Mo and DeWitt haven’t made the best decisions with their bigger $ free agent acquisitions: Fowler & Cecil immediately come to mind.

Anthony Franco
Feels like bullpen's the bigger priority, and they don't have a ton of payroll room relative to where they were this year.

Not saying they couldn't get Schwarber, but I wonder if they'd prefer to get a look at Lars Nootbaar and/or Nolan Gorman first and reevaluate at the trade deadline.
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Any ideas who the Reds get to replace Castellanos in right field? I'm not sold on the in house options.

Anthony Franco
Have to get somebody, I agree. Doesn't seem they're spending much, but maybe a Tommy Pham type?
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What happens to Dejong this year? Does Mo trade him?

Anthony Franco
I thought they would heading into the offseason, but that we haven't heard anything about it since makes me think he's probably opening the year in STL.
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What’s a trade package the Angels could give for Luis Castillo?

Anthony Franco
Reports on the Reds' willingness to actually pull the trigger on a Castillo deal are pretty variable.

I think it's likelier than not he starts the season in Cincinnati. But in the interest of not completely ducking the question, something around Detmers and Jordyn Adams or Arol Vera?
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Who are the best remaining back end relievers? As a Cards fan, I feel they need at least on more guy that can stop a rally in it's footsteps.

Anthony Franco
Not a ton left in terms of name value. Kenley Jansen's the big one. Andrew Chafin, Joe Kelly, Ryan Tepera.
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Cubs were interested in a Hosmer trade near the deadline, do you think this is still a possibility?

Anthony Franco
Sure, they've got the payroll flexibility to do that kind of "Hosmer plus a prospect for contract relief" thing.
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If you could have only 1 of Schwindel/Wisdom/Ortega, who would you take going forward?

Anthony Franco
Frank.
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Freeman to the Cubs?

Anthony Franco
Can't see it. He's already 32, team probably won't be good for another year or two.

If they're spending that kind of money, I think Story's more likely.
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If Cubs trade Contreras is he worth similar return as Bryant/Baez trades from last year?

Anthony Franco
Yeah I think that's about right.

(To the conspiracy theorists out there, I didn't ask myself this question)
Although I'm always amused by how many people suggest I do that.
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Tyler Anderson returns to Pittsburgh?

Anthony Franco
Think he's going to get a guaranteed rotation spot from a contender this time around.
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Chafin and Tepera sign back with the Cubs?

Anthony Franco
No, I think both those guys will get pretty good two-year deals the Cubs don't want to match.

That's not really an indictment of the Cubs. It's just a transitional year and topping the market on veteran middle relief/setup types in that kind of competitive window isn't ideal.
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Are there any teams out there that would take Jason Heyward? He can't hit his way out of a paper bag.

Anthony Franco
Nah, not unless the Cubs are including prospect talent, which they shouldn't be doing.
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Over/under on the end to the lockout. I’m betting after February 15th. And you say…

Anthony Franco
That feels about right. I guess I'd say it's more likely later than earlier, but I'm still hopeful we don't lose much gameplay.
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Players complain salaries aren’t increasing as revenue increases. Some owners would never agree, but why aren’t players pushing for complete revenue sharing with floor and cap? Salaries increase as revenue increases. Working very well for NBA.

Anthony Franco
Players have always been opposed to the cap or a specific revenue share split because it limits the top-end salaries.

The PA wants to raise the money for the younger players/mid-tier veterans without meaningfully taking away from the Corey Seager's of the world
Whether that's doable remains to be seen. Obviously, the league's not thrilled about the idea of forking over a larger percentage of revenue. But that's the union's starting point.
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Do you think front offices will ever use analytics to develop pitchers to go deeper into games? As opposed to the current trend of yanking a guy before the 3rd trip through the lineup. It benefits starters and pen too.

Anthony Franco
Teams are definitely using data to try to make players better, and reducing the times through the order penalty by, say, developing a better third pitch is definitely the kind of thing teams are trying.

But the quicker hooks for starters aren't going away entirely, no. Relievers are going to be more effective in shorter stints than most starters, and I don't know that any amount of player development can make that not be the case.
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