Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Mark Polishuk's NL Central comments

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These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Mark Polishuk that occurred on January 15.

Lots of NL Central questions as he went for almost 2.5 hours. I included 2 bonus Q&As. both about the draft.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/mlbtr-live-chat-12235.html

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I used to hate the DH, but now I am warming up to the idea of a NL DH full-time. What is your opinion of the DH in the NL and has your opinion changed at all as well?

Mark Polishuk
I grew up a fan of an AL team, so I'm quite used to the DH and generally prefer it to having the pitcher hit. That said, I can certainly understand why NL fans would prefer the traditional style of play, and my answer might well differ if I'd grown up a fan of the Pirates, Phillies, Reds, etc. instead of the Blue Jays.

I think for a lot of NL fans, actually seeing the DH in their lineups in 2020 was the icebreaker needed to get them used to the idea. And for some fans, I'll bet they liked having more room for a quality bat in their team's lineup.
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Do the Cards have “enough” pitching? I know you never have enough.

Mark Polishuk
Then, you already know my answer! The Cardinals are relying on a lot of pitchers who were either not great or were injured in 2021, and their ace could suddenly decline due to age alone. Getting Matz is a good move to help solidify the rotation, and if Liberatore is ready to roll, that will be a further boost in-season.
Shorter answer: if everyone is healthy, then sure, they have "enough." But injuries are inevitable.
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What do you think of a Kimbrel for DeJong trade? He can play 2nd base and has good defense plus St. Louis can use bullpen help.

Mark Polishuk
This one would be an interesting fit in terms of pure needs, but it's a big salary bump for the Cards in terms of just 2022 payroll. Moving DeJong would seem to imply that STL is either very keen on Sosa/Edman at shortstop going forward (and having Gorman for 2B), or they have another shortstop acquisition in mind.

The Cards' bullpen is also good enough that they might feel they can just sign or acquire some other reliever who might not have Kimbrel's ceiling, but could be had for much less of a cost.
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Thanks for the chats Mark! There is a lot of talk about the Cards infield prospect Nolan Gorman, but they have another infield utility player Brendan Donovan who is better defensively at 2nd and had a .885 OPS at AAA vs Nolan Gorman's .785 at AAA. Gorman likely has the higher upside, but Donovan is MLB ready. Why do the later draft picks tend to get overlooked?

Mark Polishuk
Later draft picks generally need to "prove it" to a greater extent than first-rounders, though obviously scouts and evaluators can usually tell pretty quickly if a later-round player is actually a hidden gem. Given how the Cardinals have consistently produced good minor leaguers through their pipeline, it wouldn't surprise me if Donovan did become a good big leaguer.
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How long can the Regs let Moose and Geno play if production is similar to last year?

Mark Polishuk
The answer would I guess just be to platoon them and hope for the best, though that would be a real disappointment given all of the salary involved.
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Why can’t players still interact with the trainers of organizations if they’re injured?

Mark Polishuk
Apparently they can, except via a third party. For instance, as per Ken Rosenthal's recent story on Nick Madrigal, Madrigal's trainers and doctors get in touch with the Cubs' medical staff, and then any information is relayed onto Madrigal.
So it's a little bit of a case of broken telephone, but probably not all that different than it would be under normal circumstances.
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If the Brewers offered Kershaw a 1 year, $20 million dollar contract, would he take it and solidify the strongest rotation in baseball?

Mark Polishuk
There hasn't been any indication Kershaw will pitch for anyone besides the Dodgers or Rangers going forward.
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With all the success the Rays have had for the payroll they spend, it seems surprising other teams (like Pittsburgh) haven’t reversed engineered what the Rays do and copy it. Or do you think some have tried?

Mark Polishuk
Given how many former Rays executives and coaches have been hired away by other teams in recent years, it seems like pretty much everyone is trying to replicate Tampa's model.
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Do you see the Mets trading for a Castillo or Marquez level SP once the lockout ends?

Mark Polishuk
We can't rule out anything involving the Mets at this point, though landing either of those two specific pitchers doesn't seem likely. A pitcher of that level, however? Sure.
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Though I love the top 3 of the Brewers rotation, I feel like the best way to improve the offense is to deal from it. Who provides the most trade value? Woodruff (consistent and durable) Burnes (upside), Peralta (contract)?

Mark Polishuk
I'd like to counter this entire premise, actually. If you have three top starters, hang onto them!

If I'm the Brewers and want to deal a starter for a bat, it'll be Lauer or Houser (or mayyyyybe Ashby) before I get around to moving any of the top guys.
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Why aren't certain organizations successful at developing players consistently? I'm aware that there's an innumerable amount of factors that come into that question, but some teams (e.g., Pirates, Rangers, Angels) really seem to struggle with it. Thoughts?

Mark Polishuk
I don't know if this is necessarily the reason, but one thing you hear over and over from organizations is uniformity up and down the minor league ladder. So at every level, or from every roving instructor, a prospect is hearing the same message and the same tips, as opposed to one single-A hitting coach saying one thing and a Double-A hitting coach saying another.

This kind of specialized instruction for every individual player seems more logical than a "too many cooks" approach.
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With one year left before free agency, do you see the Cubs moving Contreras before the season? If so, what teams do you see trading for him?

Mark Polishuk
I think the Cubs ultimately would still look to move Contreras if they got a decent offer, especially with Gomes in place to carry the load as a semi-everyday catcher.
I'm far from the only one to suggest this, but Contreras to the Yankees make sense for both parties.
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Between all the different hitting coaches, Mike Bryant and the Cubs FO all wanting to change Kris Bryant's hitting style, do you think it caused Kris to go from super star to above average player? I do realize the injuries also hurt.

Mark Polishuk
These could all be factors, certainly.

I think it's also fair to point out that it's hard to be a great MLB player, and even harder to keep up the sustained production that truly turns a player from star to superstar. There's a good chance we've already seen the peak of Bryant, and his future production might be closer to being just "good" rather than MVP candidate.
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Is Lester a hall of famer? Who would be a career comparison in terms of if he gets in or not?

Mark Polishuk
Lester is an interesting case. My inclination would be to say no, and I don't think he'd garner enough support from the writers.

However, in context, Lester might be one of the last of the "traditional" workhorse starting pitchers of his era, and could get extra credit from a veterans committee by that logic. Sort of a Jack Morris-esque case, plus Lester also has the championship rings.
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Was Tsutsugo's performance increase in Pittsburgh last year for real, or just a short sample fluke?

Mark Polishuk
Hard to say, and it's really hard to gauge Tsutsugo's career as a whole. He still hasn't played even a full season's worth of games as a big leaguer, not to mention his first two MLB years came under pandemic circumstances and on three different teams.

It could be that simply sticking in Pittsburgh and getting some regular playing time is all he needs to settle in.

Also, not for nothing, but there's also less pressure with the Pirates than on win-now teams like the Rays and Dodgers.
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On the Baseball America’s future projections podcast, the hosts said that Ashby is the best left handed pitching prospect in baseball. Do you really think the Brewers would trade him?

Mark Polishuk
In a perfect storm circumstance, maybe. But it would have to be a truly great offer for a player under long-term control, and one who the Brewers feel can help put them over the top for a World Series.
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What kind of trade Value does Cristian Hernandez of the Cubs have?

Mark Polishuk
He'd definitely draw a lot of interest in trade talks, even if he's still so young and his pro career has barely started. I'm not sure he's quite highly-touted enough to be the centerpiece of a trade package for a proven star player, however, and thus the Cubs might prefer to just hang onto him and see what they have.
Especially since the Cubs aren't likely to start moving their top minor leaguers after all of this process towards reloading the farm system.
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With the lockout, would the MLB draft still happen?

Mark Polishuk
First of all, let's all hope that this lockout doesn't somehow last so long that the amateur draft is affected. Based on my understanding of the lockout rules, the amateur draft should be able to proceed as per usual since the players involved aren't professionals yet, and would be considered minor leaguers (and not part of the MLBPA) once signed.
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With today's international signings, wouldn't an overall draft make more sense? If you're an Caribbean player, you're a free agent yet teams only can spend a set amount. If you're an Asian player, you need to be posted. Why not just have a worldwide draft like the NHL does?

Mark Polishuk
Keep in mind that for NPB/KBO players, they're veteran professionals rather than amateurs, so they can and should be treated differently.

The owners are known to have interest in an international draft rather than the current signing period system, but I think the idea is one int'l draft and one regular amateur draft, rather than one all-encompassing draft.
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