Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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mikechamp
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Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by mikechamp »

These comments came from a chat with MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams that occurred on April 12. (If you like him, you can find him on Twitter @Adams_Steve.)

No Cards questions this week. Two bonus Q&As, though. Enjoy.

The link to the entire chat can be found here: https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with- ... 12865.html

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What do you make of the Bryan Reynolds situation, seeing as they signed Hayes to an extension? Do you think he’s getting traded?

Steve Adams
Reynolds and Hayes are at different points in their careers, and I don't think the Hayes deal has much bearing on Reynolds. He'll cost more to extend, as he should, and I don't really have a lot of faith that the Pirates will actually put down the dollars to make it happen.

Doesn't mean he's getting traded right now, of course. He's controlled through 2025, so there's no real rush. But if you asked me to choose one or the other, trade or extension -- I'd guess he's eventually traded.
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Any chance the penny pinching Reds can sign Tyler Mahle to a long-term contract? Castillo will obviously be dealt and should be but this new, talented rotation needs an anchor.

Steve Adams
I think Mahle and Castillo are equally likely to be traded. Same service bracket. Could argue Mahle is even likelier, as he's healthier, younger and cheaper -- and thus could perhaps fetch a bigger return.

The Reds are hoping that one of Greene or Lodolo will step up as that anchor.
Well, they're hoping both will step into that anchor spot.
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Still think Brewers have a good season despite 1-3 start?

Steve Adams
The only way a four-game stretch to begin the season would change my opinion on something like that would be if some combo of Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff were seriously injured therein. Otherwise, it's four games.
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How many more top 50 prospects come up this year? 5? 10?

Steve Adams
More than five. Off the top of my head... Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Riley Greene, Oneil Cruz, Triston Casas, Brennen Davis, George Kirby, DL Hall, Alek Thomas all seem viable enough, and I'm sure there's more if I were to take more than 60 seconds to think about it.
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Votto finishes top 10 in MVP, yes or no?

Steve Adams
He had a monster year last season and only finished 16th.
I'm buying the resurgence, but I don't know that he'll end up top 10. A lot of voters still strongly prefer playoff contenders in MVP voting, and I don't think that's going to happen in Cincinnati.
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Is Pham done? AB 0-13! Wouldn't Upton be a better fit?

Steve Adams
It's 13 at-bats. He's walked four times and only struck out three. And... it's 13 at-bats.

Lots of questions about Justin Upton, who has been worth exactly 0 WAR over the past three seasons while batting .211/.299/.414 with zero defensive value.

He'll sign somewhere if he wants to keep playing, and sure the Twins and Reds are among the teams who make a modicum of sense as an on-paper fit. But I don't see why the Reds would push Pham aside for someone who's been less productive in recent years -- particularly after paying Pham -- and he'd be at best a bench option in Minnesota.

I can see being a little optimistic about the exit velo and hard-hit rate, but Justin Upton isn't going to go back to being 2017 Justin Upton at this point.
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Do you feel like Correa is going to opt-out after the 2022 season when, in theory, he should be the only huge middle infielder on the market? With the report that the Cubs were going 7/225 (aside from the agent change issue) it would seem that offer or close to it would be available to him again.

Steve Adams
As long as he's healthy and productive, he'll opt out, regardless of what he was previously offered. That's the whole reason behind this Twins contract. He wouldn't have signed it without the opt-outs. It's a glorified one-year deal.

The only way he's playing in Minnesota next year is if he gets hurt, has a terrible season, or if he produces and the Twins say "hell with it" and just sign him to the $300MM+ deal he wants.
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MJ Melendez or Shea Langeliers seem like good but blocked young catchers the Cubs should be targeting. Neither the Royals nor A's have a need for Willson Contreras, but who else would be a big league match to either team for either catcher?

Steve Adams
I don't think the Royals will move Melendez; I'd expect it's likelier he'll be worked in at catcher, DH, 1B, etc. and kind of share time with Perez and Pratto in that regard. The Royals have even worked him at out at 3B a little, I believe.

I'd also expect the A's to hang onto Langeliers and eventually look at moving Sean Murphy. Murphy will earn an actual MLB salary through arbitration next winter, after all. Murphy would be reasonable enough for the Cubs, though, and he's controlled three years beyond 2022.
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The Brewers look lost. I know the season is young but do you see them making an early season trade to bring in a bat to anchor the lineup?

Steve Adams
I've had various iterations of this question about the Brewers, Mariners, Dodgers, Yankees... it's not even a week of games. No team is going to panic and make a blockbuster deal to bring in a marquee bat (none of which are likely even available right now).
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I feel like this gets asked every year, but at what point do you consider teams/players mostly who they are? 40-50 games?

Steve Adams
On a team level I think closer to 60 games. Player-wise, it depends... it's different for a reliever than it is for a starter, just like it's different for a part-time outfielder vs. an everyday guy. It also depends what specifically you're looking at. Batting average can be weird and fluky for a long time, but by the time you're getting to even 100-150 plate appearances, you can probably get a good sense for where a hitter's strikeout rate is going to end up.
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Steve, Once a player uses up his minor league options, is there any way to get him non-major league ABs? Guys like Bellinger (and most teams have one) sure would seem to benefit by being able to work some things out away from MLB.

Steve Adams
Could go with a pretty loose IL stint designed to give a guy a mental break and go on a rehab assignment in the minors.

Bellinger can technically still be optioned for another few days, by the way. He entered the season at 4.160 years of service -- 12 days shy of reaching five years. Once a player has five years of service, he can't be optioned without his consent.
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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

60 games is when you know what a team is, or close. Remember the 2019 Mariners hot start? Then ended up being the worst team in baseball by the end.

I am not a buyer of many teams' hot starts nor the good teams' bad starts. Need way way more games. PECOTA/ZiPS projections are usually closer to right than not.

They need to factor in moneyball gaming of lineups and splits. Because the Giants were not projected to win more than 81, and especially 107.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

Yeah sometimes you have to actually play the games before you know what's going to happen.

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Joe Shlabotnik
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

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CardsofSTL wrote:
April 13 22, 9:49 am
Yeah sometimes you have to actually play the games before you know what's going to happen.
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Fat_Bulldog
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Fat_Bulldog »

Is it okay to get excited about teams with hot starts? To just enjoy it for what it is now? Or does everything have to be a god damned analysis and projection?

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Fat_Bulldog wrote:
April 13 22, 10:21 am
Is it okay to get excited about teams with hot starts? To just enjoy it for what it is now? Or does everything have to be a god damned analysis and projection?
Did anyone say either was bad?

Don't get why everyone is looking to pick a fight about every god damn thing.

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CardsofSTL
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by CardsofSTL »

Big Amoco Sign wrote:
April 13 22, 10:23 am
Fat_Bulldog wrote:
April 13 22, 10:21 am
Is it okay to get excited about teams with hot starts? To just enjoy it for what it is now? Or does everything have to be a god damned analysis and projection?
Did anyone say either was bad?

Don't get why everyone is looking to pick a fight about every god damn thing.
Because rain out.

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Fat_Bulldog
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Fat_Bulldog »

I'm not trying to pick a fight. I think there's is value in enjoying the moment and taking things for what they are today. Sometimes we still get surprised in the long run too.

I also think there is value in statistics, projections and analysis.

However, this is the first full week of the season. Let's just have some fun. Just because it wasn't projected, doesn't mean it didn't actually happen.

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Big Amoco Sign
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Re: Steve Adams' NL Central comments

Post by Big Amoco Sign »

Sometimes analysis is fun. Sometimes romanticism of the game is fun. Knizner bat flips are fun. Winning is fun. Pujols 680 is fun.

I'm enjoying all of it. There's a lot of baseball stuff to enjoy.

More importantly here, I am just responding to the post. Which brings this up.

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